Atlantic Tropical Action 2013

[Ed Lizard]

I need to clarify, the MJO phases may not make more or less storms, but the MJO  in phases 7 through 2 give them a higher moisture source to become stronger which was lacking last year

Um, ok.

 

Euro PPV AccuWx shows lower pressures and abundant rainfall developing in the Bay of Campeche, but doesn't develop a TC in the next 10 days.  Free PSU 850 mb vort product does show a decaying front off the East Coast, across Florida and into the Eastern Gulf.  Heaviest rain is East of Florida.

[am19psu]

I promise Bendy Tree mod I won't clutter the tropical thread with 12 day ensemble spaghetti once the 'real' hurricane season begins.

I actually don't mind them when they show something useful. They've gotten a lot better with the most recent upgrade.

[wxmx]

Looking at the synoptic setup for days 5-15, models are showing a persistent trough over the NW coast. Given the shorter wavelengths of this time of the year, this teleconnects well to ridging for most of the Sern CONUS. So if anything develops in the western Caribbean, it would probably trek W or WNW, with most of the Gulf coast protected, other than deep S TX and MX. But that's pretty far away in time, a more progressive trough would trump all that, although it looks like what models show is the most feasible scenario looking at global teleconnections.

[HurricaneJosh]

Looking at the synoptic setup for days 5-15, models are showing a persistent trough over the NW coast. Given the shorter wavelengths of this time of the year, this teleconnects well to ridging for most of the Sern CONUS. So if anything develops in the western Caribbean, it would probably trek W or WNW, with most of the Gulf coast protected, other than deep S TX and MX. But that's pretty far away in time, a more progressive trough would trump all that, although it looks like what models show is the most feasible scenario looking at global teleconnections.

Hawt.

You just tryin' to get me all worked up?

[Ed Lizard]

If the little low on the Euro that forms on the tail end of a decaying frontal trough was just a smidge further South, by a hundred miles or so, it'd probably become something interesting.  And 8-10 days out, who says the Euro might not be correct, but too far North.

 

I'll admit I am wish-casting rain with an Edouard-ish system, this weekend looks like the last shot (and not a great one) for my lawn for the next two weeks as the Summer heat ridge of death builds in.

 

Speaking of Summer heat ridge of death, 0Z and 6Z GEFS still have some members liking something from the Caribbean Day 11/12 headed toward Mexico or STX.

 

 

[Ed Lizard]

0% lemon in the Gulf.  I think unless development is possible *after* 48 hours, that 0% lemons shouldn't exist.  Sheared and spitting out outflow boundaries.

 

I can now see the seeds of the disturbance on the op GFS before the truncation chop that some members of the last few GEFS have been showing, and beyond the chop, 5 of 20 displayed members have closed 1004 mb or below lows around the Gulf.

 

Best I can tell a subtle disturbance that just came off Africa develops a weak wave visible at 700 mb that starts splitting, with the Southern part triggering the normally present enhanced vorticity and humidiy near the South American coast to develop.  I really can't track it backwards at 850 mb.

 

[Srain]

The GFS is now inside the 192 hour mark and continues to advertise a deep surge of tropical moisture and perhaps some low level spin developing late next week in the NW Caribbean. The Euro is also suggesting lower pressures during this time frame across the Western Caribbean and the Bay of Campeche. The heat ridge will likely still be in place but building further E into the SE US during that time frame. There are some indications that a tropical disturbance will develop and head generally W to WNW into Mexico and maybe as far N as the Deep S Texas area. We will see.

 

 

 

[yoda]

18z GFS showed basically nothing tropical for next 7 to 10 days... so it will likely be awhile before something perks Josh's fancy

[metalicwx366]

18z GFS showed basically nothing tropical for next 7 to 10 days... so it will likely be awhile before something perks Josh's fancy

Actually it does show development in the western Caribbean where it has shown it the past 10+ runs. Development is just not as robust as some of the previous runs.

[HurricaneJosh]

That hint of something in the W Caribbean is pretty hawt. Love the idea of an early-season, WNW-ish path into N MX/S TX, a la Claudette 2003, Dolly 2008, and Alex 2010. I'd wubz dat.

[Ed Lizard]

That hint of something in the W Caribbean is pretty hawt. Love the idea of an early-season, WNW-ish path into N MX/S TX, a la Claudette 2003, Dolly 2008, and Alex 2010. I'd wubz dat.

The GFS and friends lean that way, but I don't see a whole lot of support from other models.  I haven't checked Korea or Japanese.  Euro may have a hint of a tropical wave in the Gulf in 10 days, but no signs of development.  Maybe.

[wxmx]

Euro has been getting stronger with the SW GoM disturbance. It's still weak, but a very distinct 850mb vort signature is there just E of Tampico @day 10. It's still pretty far away in model world (GFS was too fast a few days ago, which was expected). Models haven't budged with the NW coast trough and S CONUS ridge, and even are stronger with those features, with a true expanding heat ridge over the S Plains.

[Ed Lizard]

Euro has been getting stronger with the SW GoM disturbance. It's still weak, but a very distinct 850mb vort signature is there just E of Tampico @day 10. It's still pretty far away in model world (GFS was too fast a few days ago, which was expected). Models haven't budged with the NW coast trough and S CONUS ridge, and even are stronger with those features, with a true expanding heat ridge over the S Plains.

 

You're not discouraging me.  Dolly rained on my lawn.    I wasn't in Houston, but Allen probably rained (although less than an inch) on the cattle ranch that became my lawn.  And, obviously, I eagerly wait any video you and Josh can get in Padre Island or NE Tamps.  Obviously, South of La Pesca would be a complete buzzkill, but glass quarter full optimistic.   See below: Glass 3/32nds full on meaningful rain in SETX from a TC in June.

 

 

ETA:  Judging from 12Z GFS, including looping North American 500 mb heights, the ridge wobbles back and forth, but net motion is pretty insignificant, or, if something forms it'll landfall well South of the international border.

 

ETA2:  I think Euro would be starting to show this if it was going to happen. Glass 3/64ths on SETX rain, 1/16 on a TD anywhere in the Gulf 10-15 days.

 

 

 

[Eyewall2005]

Oh noooooooo! ECM has much higher pressures across the atlantic in its june update which might single a rather hostile season for storms. Now take a look at the CFS today.. El nino? you gotta be kidding me. Who knows what well see this season.

 

[bluewave]

Does anyone know why the numbers are different on the scale for tropical vertical instability

this year?

 

2013 so far

 

 

2004-2012

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[metalicwx366]

Euro is getting an upgrade on the 25th.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/changes/ifs_cycle_38r2/

[wxmx]

Oh noooooooo! ECM has much higher pressures across the atlantic in its june update which might single a rather hostile season for storms. Now take a look at the CFS today.. El nino? you gotta be kidding me. Who knows what well see this season.

 

 

The CFS is overdoing it. It has been forecasting a warming for some time now, and it hasn't panned out...and in the short term (15-20 days) there will probably be some cooling across ENSO 4 and 3.4. 

[Superstorm93]

Not as gung-ho on a "classic" hurricane season as I was about a month ago, but if we do indeed cross the threshold into a full-blown Nino, I will be thoroughly surprised.

 

FWIW, the CFSv2 seems to be pointing at a more 2007-ish type of pattern by the time we get to the meat and potatoes of the season.

 

Current Tropical Pacific Anomalies:

 

 

[HurricaneJosh]

Now what did I tell y'all about thinking negative?

C'mon.

[Srain]

And if I recall correctly, those same models suggested El Nino would develop last year and we know that never happened. Neutral conditions are likely to continue until late October. The GFS is back to a broad area of disturbed weather across the NW Caribbean late this coming weekend/early next week.

[HurricaneJosh]

And if I recall correctly, those same models suggested El Nino would develop last year and we know that never happened. Neutral conditions are likely to continue until late October. The GFS is back to a broad area of disturbed weather across the NW Caribbean late this coming weekend/early next week.

[Ed Lizard]

 

 

I'm not getting any more negative on Mexico action in 9 or 11 days, now that Euro seems to be coming on board w/ GFS, although its looks like a typically weak June system (with a less than favorable MJO)  Edit to add more optimism for people that chase the Yucatan.  Euro JAS looks semi-hopeful for the Yucatan.

 

[HurricaneJosh]

Well, that's more like it.

[Ed Lizard]

Because I buzzkilled on Josh's EastPac lemon, I feel obliged to point out the GFS/FIM/Euro hinted Day 10-ish disturbance will have pretty decent TCHP to work with for mid-June assuming it heads for Tamps., MX.

 

 

EDIT TO ADD: That looks like Cameron County to me...

[Superstorm93]

CPC preliminary hazard outlook is pointing out the Caribbean for the entire period. 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/images/prelim_gth_full.png

[Srain]

CPC preliminary hazard outlook is pointing out the Caribbean for the entire period. 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/images/prelim_gth_full.png

That fits well with a post I made in the C/W sub forum this morning...

 

If the 00Z Euro is correct, the heat ridge will begin to weaken next week and increasing tropical moisture spreads generally NW in the Western Gulf. The Euro is even suggesting a possible TD or weak TS moving toward Kenedy/Kleberg Counties between Brownsville and Corpus in about 8-10 days. We will see.

[Superstorm93]

A new HWRF that has out-predicted the NHC, direct input from recon missions, and advance ensembles? 

 

Sounds pretty damn good to me.

 

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin13-13hwrf.htm

 

 

 

-- Implement HWRF GSI V3.7 one-way hybrid EnKF-3DVAR data

assimilation with GDAS forecasts as first guess and 80-member GFS

EnKF forecasts for ensemble covariances, assimilation of all

conventional data and provision to assimilate real-time inner-

core TDR/FL/SFMR/Dropsonde recon datasets

-- Improve storm size correction in the vortex initialization,

modified filter domain and use GFS vortex when the storm is

weaker than 16 m/s

-- Upgrade the nest movement algorithm using 9 parameters based

on NCEP tracker

-- Redesign nest-parent interpolations for improved treatment of

nest boundaries

-- Increase frequency of physics calls from 180 sec. to 30 sec.

and increase size of the third domain from 5-deg x 5.5-deg to 

6-deg x 6.5-deg

-- Modify GFS PBL to include variable critical Richardson number

-- Fix bug for GFDL radiation

-- Remove flux truncation from HWRF to POM

-- Improve HWRF Unified Post Processor to reduce domain

discontinuities in the simulated satellite imagery products

 

The model has been extensively tested with a combination of all

the upgrades listed above for a 3-year sample of cases. The

results showed impressive and remarkable results. For Atlantic

basin track, the HWRF is improved by ~5-15% and now appears

competitive with the GFS. For intensity, the model reduces errors

by ~15%, has demonstrated skill greater than that of the NHC

official forecast and greater than that of the statistical

models. Similar improvements are noted for the Eastern North

Pacific basin as well.

 

There are no changes to existing products or their contents. 

There will be an increase of roughly 1GB in product size due to

expanded size of the third domain. The grid is not changing, but

additional points will now have non-missing values.

 

More details about the HWRF-POM are available at:

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/HWRF/index.html

 

NCEP encourages users to ensure their decoders are flexible and

are able to adequately handle changes in content order, changes

in the scaling factor component within the product definition

section (PDS) of the GRIB files, and any volume changes which

may be forthcoming. These elements may change with future NCEP

model implementations. NCEP will make every attempt to alert

users to these changes prior to any implementations.

 

For questions regarding these model changes, please contact:

 

  Dr. Vijay Tallapragada

  NOAA/NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center

  Hurricane Forecast Project

  National Centers for Weather and Climate Prediction

  College Park, Maryland, 20740. 

  301-683-3672

  [email protected]

 

NWS National Technical Implementation Notices are online at:

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notif.htm

 

$$

[thewxmann]

A new HWRF that has out-predicted the NHC, direct input from recon missions, and advance ensembles? 

 

Sounds pretty damn good to me.

 

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin13-13hwrf.htm

 

Still not as good as ECMWF/GFS.

[Floydbuster]

Since we were discussing Texas/Mexico border cane chases, how about this one for ya, Josh?
 

 

 

 

Anita, a 175 mph Cat 5 Hurricane making landfall between Brownsville and Tampico. A little less ridging to the north and Anita would have been a Category 5 Texas landfall.

[HurricaneJosh]

Yeah, Anita is one of my all-time faves. Had a gorgeous radar presentation as it came ashore. Total monster. TX was damn lucky the ridging was so strong.