Ed Lizard Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 And it didn't instantly fizzle, like some waves do months into the season. Now a 0% Lemon in CATL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Dang things still going strong. OSCAT from last night showed a decent surface low. If this were July or August...man o' man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 The 12Z GFS and Euro increase the tropical moisture across the Western Caribbean in about 8-10 days from this wave. While shear will not be conducive to development as it crosses the Caribbean Sea, some potential may develop in the longer range once the disturbance enters the Southern and Western Gulf. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 'tis now Invest 92L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 For what it's worth, it's only an eye if it has convection all the way around it. Otherwise it's just the center of circulation (COC) or even simpler, just "the center". That being said, it has got a really nice semi-circle of rain. No question on radar now where the center is.. 2013-06-06_1901-KTLH.png Is that how it works? For some reason, I always thought the existence of an eye hinged on the presence of an eyewall. By your logic, when hurricanes have open eyewalls, they no longer have eyes. Is that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Is that how it works? For some reason, I always thought the existence of an eye hinged on the presence of an eyewall. By your logic, when hurricanes have open eyewalls, they no longer have eyes. Is that right? The NHC allows it to go either way, the problem becomes when does it become not surrounded, 3/4? 1/2? I've always used "eye" when sustained convection/eyewall completely surrounds the COC but that's just my interpretation. The roughly circular area of comparatively light winds that encompasses the center of a severe tropical cyclone. The eye is either completely or partially surrounded by the eyewall cloud.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Uhm...if you go by the rules, this is a tropical storm GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 I've seen tropical storms that had partly cloudy centers with light winds referred to having an 'eye like feature', apparently an eye is only an eye if it the storm is 64 knots or stronger. IIRC, Fay had an "eyelike feature' over Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 7, 2013 Author Share Posted June 7, 2013 They upgraded the C-Atlantic Lemon to 10%. Progress! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 If we are seeing such impressive CV systems--so far east--in early June...plus a Gulf storm (Andrea) that intensified to 55 kt, favored by anomalously high Gulf heat content and despite shear... Imagine what we will see come August, given solar heating, instability, and seasonal heat content/SSTA peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Uhm...if you go by the rules, this is a tropical storm That would be the easternmost June TC on record...and the easternmost pre-July TS on record...if upgraded. The NHC tends to ignore these pop-up systems that have a short life ahead, regardless of their structure. The NHC would need to see much more organized convection than is possible in such a typical, early-season, sheared environment. Nevertheless, I definitely think this is a good candidate for post-seasonal reanalysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 If we are seeing such impressive CV systems--so far east--in early June...plus a Gulf storm (Andrea) that intensified to 55 kt, favored by anomalously high Gulf heat content and despite shear... Imagine what we will see come August, given solar heating, instability, and seasonal heat content/SSTA peak. Josh is going to be reveling in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 7, 2013 Author Share Posted June 7, 2013 If we are seeing such impressive CV systems--so far east--in early June...plus a Gulf storm (Andrea) that intensified to 55 kt, favored by anomalously high Gulf heat content and despite shear... Imagine what we will see come August, given solar heating, instability, and seasonal heat content/SSTA peak. I'm trying not to be overly-optimistic-- I've been hurt so many times these past seven years-- but it does kinda look like the season is itching to go full blast, right out of the gate. Josh is going to be reveling in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 What are the current satellite-derived intensity estimates for 92L? This system has clearly exhibited a well-defined center and briefly retained an organized convective structure many hours earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 If we are seeing such impressive CV systems--so far east--in early June...plus a Gulf storm (Andrea) that intensified to 55 kt, favored by anomalously high Gulf heat content and despite shear... Imagine what we will see come August, given solar heating, instability, and seasonal heat content/SSTA peak. Don't jinx it. Last year we began with 4 tropical storms before July... 2 in May, 2 in June... and look how it turned out. You never know when the MJO will come around with a crap phase among other things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 92L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 7, 2013 Author Share Posted June 7, 2013 The GFS track is hawt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Wow, loving the tracks for 92l, avoiding major land interaction and headed for se florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Wow, loving the tracks for 92l, avoiding major land interaction and headed for se florida. Pity that track in August when it roars towards Hallandale with 120 kt winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Wow, loving the tracks for 92l, avoiding major land interaction and headed for se florida. Re: 92L: this means nothing in June, given the strength of the subtropical jet (shear) in its path. The real key is to see such modular plots in August or September. Unfortunately for chasers, most FL 'canes in peak season ultimately end up as either 1) fish or 2) recurving slop-gyres into NC. And there's 3), a wimpy, sheared-out, buxom storm like Frances. Again, "wimpy" from Josh's perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Back to 0 as of 2:00am, well, I like what GFS showed but, it's a no go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Re: 92L: this means nothing in June, given the strength of the subtropical jet (shear) in its path. The real key is to see such modular plots in August or September. Unfortunately for chasers, most FL 'canes in peak season ultimately end up as either 1) fish or 2) recurving slop-gyres into NC. And there's 3), a wimpy, sheared-out, buxom storm like Frances. Again, "wimpy" from Josh's perspective. A few unusually quiet years, and people forget Florida is the hurricane capital of the US. Quality Florida video snip in 2004 from Jim Edds ( https://twitter.com/extremestorms ) in Charley. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UeM-cjTEEA8 A few 0Z GEFS members have some closed 1004 mb lows in the Gulf in two weeks, more than early season last year, but not enough to get too excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 The overnight GFS suggests an area of low pressure develops from 92L in about 8-10 days in the Western Caribbean. The longer range GFS is also suggesting a weak tropical disturbance heading WNW across the Western Gulf and approaching the NE Coast of Mexico/South Texas Coastline in about 12-13 days. The Euro suggests no real development as it crosses the wind sheared Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 This season is already looking interesting, we probably had an unnamed tropical storm in the MDR a few days ago which is a sign of when the MJO goes back into phase 7 and I expect that around the last week of June and early July, that is when this season is going to go gangbusters, wouldn't be suprised to see more than 20 named storms and quite frankly a quality and quantity season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 I'm not very knowledgeable about the Albany U type of stuff w/ CCKW and all, and we did get a Pacific system during an apparently unfavorable MJO phase (Bendy Tree mod said a Kelvin wave helped spark Alvin, which I couldn't really see on the CPC OLR anomaly map), but a quick check of various MJO products on CPC website seem to indicate it won't be active in the Atlantic in the next two weeks, despite 15% of the 0Z GEFS having 1004 mb or stronger lows in the GOMEX in two weeks. 6Z GEFS have 4 1004 mb or below systems in the NW Caribbean/Gulf in 15 days. No idea if the ensemble system develops from remnants of what I assume will soon be dropped 92L. Although they have it as 1009 mb. Convection flaring, but shear looks beastly on satellite loop. 50 knots per CIMMS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 This season is already looking interesting, we probably had an unnamed tropical storm in the MDR a few days ago which is a sign of when the MJO goes back into phase 7 and I expect that around the last week of June and early July, that is when this season is going to go gangbusters, wouldn't be suprised to see more than 20 named storms and quite frankly a quality and quantity season Based on statistical analyses I've done in the past covering tropical activity going back to the 1970's when historical MJO phase data starts (frequencies for each MJO phase), I feel that the statistical significance of the MJO phase is often overrated. I've found way too much activity during supposed "inactive" phases and vice versa. In other words, these analyses show that it is fairly flat when comparing the genesis of tropical cyclones during the grouping of active vs. inactive phases. Time and time again, we see "exceptions"....so much so that the "rule" is not all that statistically significant. I'm not saying the MJO phases can't still be used as a forecasting tool to some extent. However, I am saying that I feel that it is not even close to being a crystal ball, and that there is often too much weight put on it since 35+ years worth of statistical data suggest any correlation with the MJO, itself, to be on the low side. If anyone else is curious, I suggest they do their own studies and present them if they so desire. Perhaps they'd come up with a different conclusion. Part of the problem as I see it is that I often see the MJO used to predict activity in the entire Atlantic basin whereas it supposedly has the most predictive power only in the westernmost part of the basin. I'd even venture to say that the MJO's predictive power for the westernmost part of the basin is probably not all that impressive during the active western Caribbean late season based on a study I did. So, in summary, I think that the MJO is overrated in terms of its ability to forecast tropical cyclone genesis in the Atlantic basin. This goes both ways (i.e., "active" and "inactive" phases not all that different in terms of genesis frequency). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 The GFS continues to develop a near monsoonal low in the northwestern Caribbean in 9 days...tracks it into the Gulf and intensifies it to a decent tropical storm before taking it into northern Mexico/southern Texas. It's been consistent with this even though it's the one that shows this. The CMC, GFS, and ECMWF all show a trough split off the Southeastern coast in 9-11 days. Something to watch then as well. Guess it's hurricane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 They upgraded the C-Atlantic Lemon to 10%. Progress! Does anyone know what the satellite-derived estimates were last night? Don't jinx it. Last year we began with 4 tropical storms before July... 2 in May, 2 in June... and look how it turned out. You never know when the MJO will come around with a crap phase among other things. As Larry (GAwx) has said above, and with which I agree: while the modality of the MJO can influence upward velocities that tend to favor TC genesis in the Atlantic, it is not a life-or-death factor. If other conditions favor an active season--relatively high instability, favorable 200-mb U-vector velocities, and low MSLP--then storms will develop even when the MJO is not in the "preferred" state in which to stimulate upward motion across the basin. I am sure that you remember many cases in which cyclones developed when the MJO was far from ideal for development. And the past several years were inactive due to factors other than the MJO--such as the IOD configuration in the S Indian Ocean--which look entirely different this year. You may wish to look back at the previous pages in which HM and I mentioned these factors, and also to look to the posts of others, and to see how this year looks to be much different (=more favorable) than 2010-2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 I promise Bendy Tree mod I won't clutter the tropical thread with 12 day ensemble spaghetti once the 'real' hurricane season begins. 20% of the displayed 12Z GEFS perturbations show a 1004 mb or stronger TC in the Gulf in 12 days. That'd be a perfect time for a Texas hit, before TCHP in the Gulf can build up, sparing retired longshoreman's vacation homes on barrier islands from damage while providing rain for the one area of SE Texas that has missed or been grazed by every thunderstorm complex in 2013. Hence, it is very unlikely. But maybe a heads up for Mexico or Florida. TCHP almost negative offshore SETX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 I need to clarify, the MJO phases may not make more or less storms, but the MJO in phases 7 through 2 give them a higher moisture source to become stronger which was lacking last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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