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Atlantic Tropical Action 2013

HurricaneJosh

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

Pretty nice tropical wave out in the CATL

 

Hopefully this is a sign of things to come

 

attachicon.gifGOES20152013156GnnMiv.jpg

 

attachicon.gifpw_stdanom_tropatl_58.gif

 

 

That is the one that came off Africa on a previous page.  A few days ago GFS and Canadian tracked 850 mb vortex across Atlantic, Canadian turning it North well clear of the islands,. GFS taking it West then NW in the general direction of Puerto Rico.  Didn't check modelling on it today, but if it developed on one of the models, someone would have mentioned it.

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Superstorm93

Superstorm93

Posted
Posted

ASCAT and OSCAT had a closed circulation on it last night. Reminded me somewhat of Invest 92L from June 2010 (the one that should've been designated but wasn't IMO).

 

Don't even get me started on 92L from 2010. I still have a whole page in my 2010 Hurricane Season album on photobucket of that thing. 

 

Anyway...

 

There was an entire page of strong west winds from recon

 

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RobbTC

RobbTC

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TS Andrea to be announced within the hour.

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION ON THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST-
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS
FINDING...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL INITIATE ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

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Superstorm93

Superstorm93

Posted
Posted

VDM from the old fix

 

Should get a new one soon

 

000
URNT12 KBIX 052132
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL912013
A. 05/20:53:20Z
B. 25 deg 11 min N
086 deg 38 min W
C. NA
D. 30 kt
E. 310 deg 27 nm
F. 057 deg 36 kt
G. 303 deg 20 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 21 C / 243 m
J. 25 C / 242 m
K. 24 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 01AAA INVEST OB 10
MAX FL WIND 47 KT 069/49 19:43:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
;

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am19psu

am19psu

Posted
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Model ground rules:

1. You really don't need more than the Euro, GFS, and UKMet (and maybe some of the HFIP models)

2. I might make fun of you for posting the CMC, Navy, GFDL, or HWRF, but they're at least defensible since NHC uses them

3. These are not icep*ssy threads. No NAM, JMA, HRRR, RAP, DGEX, or whatever else terrible icep*ssy nonsense you post in your regional forums. We will delete it, especially during busy times.

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Scott747

Scott747

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Model ground rules:

1. You really don't need more than the Euro, GFS, and UKMet (and maybe some of the HFIP models)

2. I might make fun of you for posting the CMC, Navy, GFDL, or HWRF, but they're at least defensible since NHC uses them

3. These are not icep*ssy threads. No NAM, JMA, HRRR, RAP, DGEX, or whatever else terrible icep*ssy nonsense you post in your regional forums. We will delete it, especially during busy times.

 

I don't care if you go 6'5 and 20+ stones...

 

Never make fun of our sub 900 GFDL/HWRF runs at 3 in the morning.

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HurricaneJosh

HurricaneJosh

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Posted

Model ground rules:

1. You really don't need more than the Euro, GFS, and UKMet (and maybe some of the HFIP models)

2. I might make fun of you for posting the CMC, Navy, GFDL, or HWRF, but they're at least defensible since NHC uses them

3. These are not icep*ssy threads. No NAM, JMA, HRRR, RAP, DGEX, or whatever else terrible icep*ssy nonsense you post in your regional forums. We will delete it, especially during busy times.

Man-crush. Starts here. B)

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

Model ground rules:

1. You really don't need more than the Euro, GFS, and UKMet (and maybe some of the HFIP models)

2. I might make fun of you for posting the CMC, Navy, GFDL, or HWRF, but they're at least defensible since NHC uses them

3. These are not icep*ssy threads. No NAM, JMA, HRRR, RAP, DGEX, or whatever else terrible icep*ssy nonsense you post in your regional forums. We will delete it, especially during busy times.

We don't actually know the new NavGem is really bad.  Yet.  The Canadian is new and improved, although it looks like it made Andrea a hurricane on several runs.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

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Posted

What value do they add over the Euro, GFS, and UKMet?

If the new NavGem is an improvement over a NoGaps that had its last major upgrade in 1998, well, how could it not be an improvement.  The UK Met doesn't usually blow me away, for that matter.

 

The odd one is the GFDL, just hazy memories, but I seem to recall it being decent in 2004 and 2005, and then something happened.

 

Not like I'm arguing about using the NAM or anything.  BTW, I have found GFS spaghetti to be semi-useful in longer range indication that TC genesis is possible.  During the slow season last year, it'd run out 16 days with one or two, or even no members developing a TC, when the season switched on, it started showing more.  Not so much a forecast tool, as an indicator that conditions are becoming favorable.  I used 1004 mb as my discriminator,

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am19psu

am19psu

Posted
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If the new NavGem is an improvement over a NoGaps that had its last major upgrade in 1998, well, how could it not be an improvement.  The UK Met doesn't usually blow me away, for that matter.

 

The odd one is the GFDL, just hazy memories, but I seem to recall it being decent in 2004 and 2005, and then something happened.

 

Not like I'm arguing about using the NAM or anything.  BTW, I have found GFS spaghetti to be semi-useful in longer range indication that TC genesis is possible.  During the slow season last year, it'd run out 16 days with one or two, or even no members developing a TC, when the season switched on, it started showing more.  Not so much a forecast tool, as an indicator that conditions are becoming favorable.  I used 1004 mb as my discriminator,

Let me reframe the question: How much would you weight the new Navy model vis-a-vis the GFS, Euro, and UKM if you were making a forecast right now? My answer is zero, which is why I think it's pointless to look at it.

 

That's a good use of the GEFS, imo. It got better with the resolution/physics upgrade. It will get even better if/when they do the next round this fall.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

 

 

Let me reframe the question: How much would you weight the new Navy model vis-a-vis the GFS, Euro, and UKM if you were making a forecast right now? My answer is zero, which is why I think it's pointless to look at it.

 

That's a good use of the GEFS, imo. It got better with the resolution/physics upgrade. It will get even better if/when they do the next round this fall.

 

 

Until the NavGem develops a track record with TCs, at most it'll be a tie breaker between the two big boys if they diverge, and even then I'd lean towards the Euro.  I'm not going to post NavGem 5 day TCs when no other model supports it.
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