Superstorm93 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Well I'll be a sonofa.. Looks like Andrea to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Well I'll be a sonofa.. Looks like Andrea to me. recon_usaf_zoom (1).png Yep, closed circulation... should see a special advisory within a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Pretty nice tropical wave out in the CATL Hopefully this is a sign of things to come GOES20152013156GnnMiv.jpg pw_stdanom_tropatl_58.gif That is the one that came off Africa on a previous page. A few days ago GFS and Canadian tracked 850 mb vortex across Atlantic, Canadian turning it North well clear of the islands,. GFS taking it West then NW in the general direction of Puerto Rico. Didn't check modelling on it today, but if it developed on one of the models, someone would have mentioned it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Pretty nice tropical wave out in the CATL Hopefully this is a sign of things to come GOES20152013156GnnMiv.jpg pw_stdanom_tropatl_58.gif ASCAT and OSCAT had a closed circulation on it last night. Reminded me somewhat of Invest 92L from June 2010 (the one that should've been designated but wasn't IMO). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 ASCAT and OSCAT had a closed circulation on it last night. Reminded me somewhat of Invest 92L from June 2010 (the one that should've been designated but wasn't IMO). Don't even get me started on 92L from 2010. I still have a whole page in my 2010 Hurricane Season album on photobucket of that thing. Anyway... There was an entire page of strong west winds from recon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 BEGINNHC_ATCFinvest_RENUMBER_al912013_al012013.renFSTDARU0400100000201306052121NONENOTIFY=ATRPEND About time to make a new thread AL, 01, 2013060518, , BEST, 0, 253N, 866W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 120, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ANDREA, M, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Tropical Storm Andrea BEGINNHC_ATCFinvest_RENUMBER_al912013_al012013.renFSTDARU0400100000201306052121NONENOTIFY=ATRPEND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 AL, 01, 2013060518, , BEST, 0, 253N, 866W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 120, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ANDRE, M, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 TS Andrea to be announced within the hour.SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL530 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION ON THE LOW PRESSURE AREAIN THE GULF OF MEXICOFOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO IDENTIFY AWELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THISFINDING...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL INITIATE ADVISORIES ONTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS AHIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONEDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Dammit...was hoping to hold off until I got out of work. Congrats Andrea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Recon has pressures down to 1002 mb already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 1002.6mb on extrap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 well, she's not the prettiest storm in the world. but if the aircraft data says she's developed in a tropical manner, so be it. can't ignore the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 VDM from the old fix Should get a new one soon 000URNT12 KBIX 052132VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL912013A. 05/20:53:20ZB. 25 deg 11 min N086 deg 38 min WC. NAD. 30 ktE. 310 deg 27 nmF. 057 deg 36 ktG. 303 deg 20 nmH. EXTRAP 1005 mbI. 21 C / 243 mJ. 25 C / 242 mK. 24 C / NAL. NAM. NAN. 1345 / 01O. 0.02 / 1 nmP. AF303 01AAA INVEST OB 10MAX FL WIND 47 KT 069/49 19:43:00ZSLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Steve is an admin, should he start an Andrea thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 New Thread time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Just got put under a trop storm watch here in Charleston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 With the center having reorganized East since that time, I would suspect the tight GFS Ens cluster to migrate further East than is shown here from 12z. That's gonna be a whole lotta rain along the coastal plain up and down the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/ The National Buoy Data center this season appears to be including tropical cyclones current position/forecast on their buoy maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Hell of a wave for June 18z GFS analysis T575 Res Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Model ground rules: 1. You really don't need more than the Euro, GFS, and UKMet (and maybe some of the HFIP models) 2. I might make fun of you for posting the CMC, Navy, GFDL, or HWRF, but they're at least defensible since NHC uses them 3. These are not icep*ssy threads. No NAM, JMA, HRRR, RAP, DGEX, or whatever else terrible icep*ssy nonsense you post in your regional forums. We will delete it, especially during busy times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Model ground rules: 1. You really don't need more than the Euro, GFS, and UKMet (and maybe some of the HFIP models) 2. I might make fun of you for posting the CMC, Navy, GFDL, or HWRF, but they're at least defensible since NHC uses them 3. These are not icep*ssy threads. No NAM, JMA, HRRR, RAP, DGEX, or whatever else terrible icep*ssy nonsense you post in your regional forums. We will delete it, especially during busy times. I don't care if you go 6'5 and 20+ stones... Never make fun of our sub 900 GFDL/HWRF runs at 3 in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 6, 2013 Author Share Posted June 6, 2013 Model ground rules: 1. You really don't need more than the Euro, GFS, and UKMet (and maybe some of the HFIP models) 2. I might make fun of you for posting the CMC, Navy, GFDL, or HWRF, but they're at least defensible since NHC uses them 3. These are not icep*ssy threads. No NAM, JMA, HRRR, RAP, DGEX, or whatever else terrible icep*ssy nonsense you post in your regional forums. We will delete it, especially during busy times. Man-crush. Starts here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Hell of a wave for June 18z GFS analysis T575 Res 623.0.jpg 623.0 (1).jpg Too bad it's running into a wall Strong suppressed CCKW phase pushing overhead-> bring on the shear/subsidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Model ground rules: 1. You really don't need more than the Euro, GFS, and UKMet (and maybe some of the HFIP models) 2. I might make fun of you for posting the CMC, Navy, GFDL, or HWRF, but they're at least defensible since NHC uses them 3. These are not icep*ssy threads. No NAM, JMA, HRRR, RAP, DGEX, or whatever else terrible icep*ssy nonsense you post in your regional forums. We will delete it, especially during busy times. We don't actually know the new NavGem is really bad. Yet. The Canadian is new and improved, although it looks like it made Andrea a hurricane on several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 We don't actually know the new NavGem is really bad. Yet. The Canadian is new and improved, although it looks like it made Andrea a hurricane on several runs. What value do they add over the Euro, GFS, and UKMet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 What value do they add over the Euro, GFS, and UKMet? If the new NavGem is an improvement over a NoGaps that had its last major upgrade in 1998, well, how could it not be an improvement. The UK Met doesn't usually blow me away, for that matter. The odd one is the GFDL, just hazy memories, but I seem to recall it being decent in 2004 and 2005, and then something happened. Not like I'm arguing about using the NAM or anything. BTW, I have found GFS spaghetti to be semi-useful in longer range indication that TC genesis is possible. During the slow season last year, it'd run out 16 days with one or two, or even no members developing a TC, when the season switched on, it started showing more. Not so much a forecast tool, as an indicator that conditions are becoming favorable. I used 1004 mb as my discriminator, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 If the new NavGem is an improvement over a NoGaps that had its last major upgrade in 1998, well, how could it not be an improvement. The UK Met doesn't usually blow me away, for that matter. The odd one is the GFDL, just hazy memories, but I seem to recall it being decent in 2004 and 2005, and then something happened. Not like I'm arguing about using the NAM or anything. BTW, I have found GFS spaghetti to be semi-useful in longer range indication that TC genesis is possible. During the slow season last year, it'd run out 16 days with one or two, or even no members developing a TC, when the season switched on, it started showing more. Not so much a forecast tool, as an indicator that conditions are becoming favorable. I used 1004 mb as my discriminator, Let me reframe the question: How much would you weight the new Navy model vis-a-vis the GFS, Euro, and UKM if you were making a forecast right now? My answer is zero, which is why I think it's pointless to look at it. That's a good use of the GEFS, imo. It got better with the resolution/physics upgrade. It will get even better if/when they do the next round this fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Let me reframe the question: How much would you weight the new Navy model vis-a-vis the GFS, Euro, and UKM if you were making a forecast right now? My answer is zero, which is why I think it's pointless to look at it. That's a good use of the GEFS, imo. It got better with the resolution/physics upgrade. It will get even better if/when they do the next round this fall. Until the NavGem develops a track record with TCs, at most it'll be a tie breaker between the two big boys if they diverge, and even then I'd lean towards the Euro. I'm not going to post NavGem 5 day TCs when no other model supports it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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