Ground Scouring Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 where do you get that text data from the euro showing 55kt strength? I converted the 35 m/s winds at 850 mb to 10-m winds in kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 The overnight Global and ensemble guidance continue to advertise a festering area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche/Western Caribbean during the early part of next week. Wind shear should keep a stronger system from developing, but heavy rainfall and flooding potential does appear to be increasing along the Northern Gulf into.Florida as this complex moves N to NE across the Gulf of Mexico next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 BEGINNHC_ATCFinvest_al902013.investFSTDARU0400100000201305311237NONENOTIFY=ATRPEND INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2013, DB, O, 2013053112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902013AL, 90, 2013053112, , BEST, 0, 195N, 953W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 We officially have invest 90! Good to have something to watch early on, probably a big rain producer at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 05302013 14Z Gul VIS latest.jpg This is beautiful. Where did you get this image? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Precursor to August?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 12Z ECMWF shows a 30-kt, 1003-mb depression hitting the Tampa area in five days. I would like to see a stronger system to maximize our rain chances across central and south FL. Happy hurricane season to all...season starts in just seven hours according to UTC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Precursor to August?? afrvn-l.jpg I have a feeling that this is a sign of what the Cape Verde season is going to be like, lets hope they're all fish so that there is no death and destruction, but I have a feeling that a few of these wont be fish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 12Z ECMWF shows a 30-kt, 1003-mb depression hitting the Tampa area in five days. I would like to see a stronger system to maximize our rain chances across central and south FL. Happy hurricane season to all...season starts in just seven hours according to UTC! You may also want to look at the last 3 runs of the CMC on the FSU site--- http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 12Z ECMWF shows a 30-kt, 1003-mb depression hitting the Tampa area in five days. I would like to see a stronger system to maximize our rain chances across central and south FL. Happy hurricane season to all...season starts in just seven hours according to UTC! Not sure a more intense system would mean much different from a rainfall perspective. Gyre like circulations are already embedded in an anomalously high precipitable water environment. That combined with their typical slow motion should be more than enough to pose a flooding threat for most areas in FL (especially regions that end up on the eastern periphery of the circulation). What we are probably looking at right now is an evolution not all that different from what occurred with Debby last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 I have a feeling that this is a sign of what the Cape Verde season is going to be like, lets hope they're all fish so that there is no death and destruction, but I have a feeling that a few of these wont be fish I know you aren't saying this, but recent water vapor shows that wave won't survive all the dry air between it and the Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Not sure a more intense system would mean much different from a rainfall perspective. Gyre like circulations are already embedded in an anomalously high precipitable water environment. That combined with their typical slow motion should be more than enough to pose a flooding threat for most areas in FL (especially regions that ends up on the eastern periphery of the circulation). What we are probably looking at right now is an evolution not all that different from what occurred with Debby last year. by evolution, are you referring to development, path, or both?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 1, 2013 Author Share Posted June 1, 2013 Precursor to August?? That's a weirdly awesome-looking Cape Verde wave for this time of year. You'd think it was Labor Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 by evolution, are you referring to development, path, or both?? Development and potentially track with both the GFS and ECMWF taking the highest vorticity associated with the disturbance eastward over FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 That's a weirdly awesome-looking Cape Verde wave for this time of year. You'd think it was Labor Day. And it didn't instantly fizzle, like some waves do months into the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 1, 2013 Author Share Posted June 1, 2013 Da season starts!!!1! Wonder what kinda action da USA's gonna get this year. Better be good after seven straight years o' crap. (Spare me the lectures about Ike and Sandy. They were destructive, but they weren't hawt-- so just hush. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 Da season starts!!!1! Wonder what kinda action da USA's gonna get this year. Better be good after seven straight years o' crap. (Spare me the lectures about Ike and Sandy. They were destructive, but they weren't hawt-- so just hush. ) I am not even a little bit excited about this season really. The calls for an active season really don't get me going and unless I see some east coast action I could care less if there are 30 named storms that don't affect me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 Looks like an exciting hurricane season coming up my fellow weather freaks!! Let the games begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 Lemon already for ex-Barbara. And I'm not going to be disappointed with a badly sheared tropical storm hitting the Florida Gulf Coast next week. No sense being tight cored snobby first week of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 Lemon already for ex-Barbara. And I'm not going to be disappointed with a badly sheared tropical storm hitting the Florida Gulf Coast next week. No sense being tight cored snobby first week of the season. Now, now...don't start making fun of other regions' cyclones, Mr. Everything is Bigger in TX!1!! We South Floridians are sensitive to that stuff. On another note, Miami-FLL-PBI is statistically overdue for a major hurricane--since Betsy 1965, only Andrew 1992 has hit this area with bona-fide major-hurricane winds, a sobering statistic that is easy to overlook due to the 2004 and 2005 impacts: In the period since 1950, only four major hurricanes have directly impacted South Florida, which is only half the number that affected the region in the period from 1926 to 1950. Hurricane Donna (September 1960) made landfall along the southwest coast causing major impacts in the Naples to Everglades City area, with a storm surge of 10 feet at Naples and an estimated 7-8 feet inundation along Everglades City streets. The other three were Andrew (August 1992) and Hurricane Jeanne (September 2004) both along the southeast coast, and then Hurricane Wilma (October 2005) along the southwest coast. Hurricane Jeanne actually made landfall in northern Martin County, but caused significant damage in northern Palm Beach County. An exception is Hurricane Betsy in September 1965. Although Betsy was technically an indirect impact making landfall in Key Largo, that placed the southeast coast of the peninsula in the northeast quadrant of the storm. A large storm surge caused nearly all of the land south of Homestead Air Force Base and east of U.S. 1 to be covered by water including Key Biscayne. Most of the streets in Miami Beach facing the ocean and Biscayne Bay were also under water. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/mfl/news/Newsletter10.pdf A review of S-FL (MIA-FLL-PBI) major hurricane impacts, 1900-present: 1900s: 1 (1906) 1910s: 0 1920s: 3 (1926, 1928, 1929) 1930s: 2 (1933, 1935) 1940s: 4 (1945, 1947, 1949, 1950) 1950s: 0 1960s: 1 (1965) 1970s: 0 1980s: 0 1990s: 1 (1992) 2000s: 0 2010-2012: 0 1 major, 1901-1925 9 majors, 1926-1950 1 major, 1951-1975 1 major, 1976-2000 0 majors, 2000-present http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html Records before 1900 are incomplete due to the sparse population of S FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 1, 2013 Author Share Posted June 1, 2013 Looks like an exciting hurricane season coming up my fellow weather freaks!! Let the games begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 GFS seems to think ex-Barbara will make a run at being respectable, maybe even coming close to being a named system, before a gruesome decapitation. Head and sholders flung at Florida, rotting corpse drifting towards the West. August naked swirl pictures would be sad, but in June, not heartbreaking. Edit to add: The TranStar electronic traffic condition billboards were alternating between 'Click It or Ticket' and a celebration that 'Hurricane Season is Here'. Even the highway signs were happy. One Cali import I approve of, especially when the messages are uplifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Back for another exciting year with you guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Here's my 2013 hurricane season outlook http://28storms.com/longrange/2013-hurricane-season/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Here's my 2013 hurricane season outlook http://28storms.com/longrange/2013-hurricane-season/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Is it me or are the Models going more robust with each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Is it me or are the Models going more robust with each run This run of the GFS had a much more organized system rather than the distorted, elongated, sheared, popcorn low it had before. CMC still going bonkers with development, but that's typical of it, which leads me to believe the upgrade did nothing. Unless it's on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Canadian and GFS both keep nice early season wave from a day or two ago identifiable on 850 mb vorticity, Canadian comes close to making it a TD for a while. Not expecting much, but another healthy blob over Africa, looks promising for the first day of June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Here's my 2013 hurricane season outlook http://28storms.com/longrange/2013-hurricane-season/ Rob, Solid reasoning...I think you have learned from the "bust" with Independent Wx. a few seasons ago. The SSTA- / heights-based rolling methodology seems to be a solid basis for forecasting the August-September geo-potential heights, especially given the ENSO signal. However, I would have also included the PDO as a factor into your forecast, along with the April-May 200-mb pattern. Perhaps using a bit of Sam's MQI indicators as well as the SIOD could have added more depth and support to your ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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