Atlantic Tropical Action 2013

[am19psu]

I was under the impression if a Basin crosser remained a TC (not a remnant that redeveloped) it would keep the original name, ie, if Barbara emerged in the BoC as a TD it'd be TD Barbara.  Not that I expect that.

Seems to be a Pacific thing - certainly storms going from the EPAC to CPAC or CPAC to WPAC keep the same name. I remember EPAC to NATL happening once before as well (in the 90s maybe?) and it got a new name then, too.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

Seems to be a Pacific thing - certainly storms going from the EPAC to CPAC or CPAC to WPAC keep the same name. I remember EPAC to NATL happening once before as well (in the 90s maybe?) and it got a new name then, too.

I believe they changed that rule a few years ago... though I would have to go back and look, I think it has happened once with an Atlantic to Eastern Pacific crossover since the rule change.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

I believe they changed that rule a few years ago... though I would have to go back and look, I think it has happened once with an Atlantic to Eastern Pacific crossover since the rule change.

I think the storm I'm thinking of is Felix back in 2007... but it managed to lose its circulation just before entering the eastern Pacific. I remember the issue being discussed thoroughly though.

[wxmx]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic%E2%80%93Pacific_crossover_hurricanes

 

 

There are few true crossovers, not remnant regenerations, and they are usually from the Atlantic to the Pacific thru Central America. The couple that have crossed over with reportedly a distinguishable LLC from the EPAC to the ATL, have done it close to the isthmus, the last one being the 1949 Freeport Hurricane...and that was not more than a TD in the EPac.

[Ed Lizard]

Anybody excited about something trying to develop from the remnants, and then being sheared out and possibly bringing heavy rain to Florida?

[icebreaker5221]

Anybody excited about something trying to develop from the remnants, and then being sheared out and possibly bringing heavy rain to Florida?

 

On the edge of my seat

[wxmx]

I have my doubts about Cosme keeping a LLC while traversing over so much land and so many mountains, that´s probably close to the worst path scenario for a LLC to survive. And also there´s a 30 hour gap from the last hurdat coordinates from Cosme and the first one for Allison. I also have doubts about the Freeport hurricane, that´s also a very rough terrain it had to go trough in Guatemala and SE MX.

 

if it's only a TD as it emerges in the gulf, it will be renamed - if it remains a TS, it stays Barbara

 

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/B5.html

 

Subject: B5) What happens to the name of a tropical cyclone if it moves from the Atlantic regions to the Northeast Pacific, or vice versa? Contributed by Chris Landsea

 

The rule used to be that if the tropical storm or hurricane moved into a different basin (see F1 for more about the basins), then it was renamed to whatever name was next on the list for the area. The last time that this occurred was in July 1996 when Atlantic basin Tropical Storm Cesar moved across Central America and was renamed Northeast Pacific basin Tropical Storm Douglas. The last time that a Northeast Pacific system moved into the Atlantic basin was in June 1989 when Cosme became Allison.

 

 

 

However, these rules have now changed at the National Hurricane Center and if the system remains a tropical cyclone as it moves across Central America, then it will keep the original name. Only if the tropical cyclone dissipates with just a tropical disturbance remaining, will the hurricane warning center give the system a new name assuming it becomes a tropical cyclone once again in its new basin.

[Ed Lizard]

if it's only a TD as it emerges in the gulf, it will be renamed - if it remains a TS, it stays Barbara

 

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/B5.html

 

Subject: B5) What happens to the name of a tropical cyclone if it moves from the Atlantic regions to the Northeast Pacific, or vice versa? Contributed by Chris Landsea

 

The rule used to be that if the tropical storm or hurricane moved into a different basin (see F1 for more about the basins), then it was renamed to whatever name was next on the list for the area. The last time that this occurred was in July 1996 when Atlantic basin Tropical Storm Cesar moved across Central America and was renamed Northeast Pacific basin Tropical Storm Douglas. The last time that a Northeast Pacific system moved into the Atlantic basin was in June 1989 when Cosme became Allison.

 

 

However, these rules have now changed at the National Hurricane Center and if the system remains a tropical cyclone as it moves across Central America, then it will keep the original name. Only if the tropical cyclone dissipates with just a tropical disturbance remaining, will the hurricane warning center give the system a new name assuming it becomes a tropical cyclone once again in its new basin.

A tropical depression is a tropical cyclone, albeit a weak one...

[Ground Scouring]

I guess the good news is if this can track toward the Florida next week, then it could eliminate

what is left of the drought conditions there. We have already been seeing drought improvement

over Florida during the spring.

Based upon conversion from 25 m/s at 850 mb to 10-m kt (25*1.94*.9), that ECMWF run shows a disorganized 45-kt tropical storm with hybrid-type features moving NE toward the FL Big Bend and is by far the most aggressive run...giving solid support to cyclogenesis starting in about five days in the SE Bay of Campeche. (The time frame was seven days out in previous runs but has since moved forward considerably and suggests affinities with the remnant vorticity lobe of Barbara.) The ECMWF is actually more aggressive than the GFS re: formation in the day-six-to-day-seven time-scale. I'd say that Andrea is becoming an increasingly sure bet.

[wxmx]

Based upon conversion from 25 m/s at 850 mb to 10-m kt (25*1.94*.9), that ECMWF run shows a disorganized 45-kt tropical storm with hybrid-type features moving NE toward the FL Big Bend and is by far the most aggressive run...giving solid support to cyclogenesis starting in about five days in the SE Bay of Campeche. (The time frame was seven days out in previous runs but has since moved forward considerably and suggests affinities with the remnant vorticity lobe of Barbara.) The ECMWF is actually more aggressive than the GFS re: formation in the day-six-to-day-seven time-scale. I'd say that Andrea is becoming an increasingly sure bet.

or Atlantic Barbara

[Ed Lizard]

JMHO, looking at reliable models, remnants of Barbara may make a run at a lemon, probably not before first regular season advisory, but it will be sheared apart, but enhance rain in Florida early next week.  A little moisture might make a run at  South Texas to meet the dying corpse of a frontal boundary this weekend, possibly enhancing rain chances slightly..

 

And beginning of the season, I'll take a lemon, 

[Jim Marusak]

or Atlantic Barbara

 

according to the 2pm pdt/21z discussion, they're saying if it crosses over mexico and makes it to the other side into the GOM, they will not give it a name change, but retain the name Barbara.

 

i always did wonder what would happen in the unlikely case of something like that happening. now I know.

[weatherdude888]

Thank you for taking the time to answer my questions.  It seems if it survives the transit it could be something somewhat historic, assuming the name sticks and all --- the first hurricane of a season in the Atlantic basin but with a "B" name from the EPAC

 

 

 

-Matthew

[Superstorm93]

Looks like we may have to deal with a crappy cross-over system in the GOM

 

 

 

[HurricaneJosh]

Looks like we may have to deal with a crappy cross-over system in the GOM

 

Stop pretending-- you know you think it's hawt.

[HurricaneJosh]

Liar, liar, pants on fire!

you know you like 50 mph slopical storms.  they're the new hawtness.

Wiseguyz. I saw these posts.

[Superstorm93]

After the Alma-Arthur debacle of 2008?

Heck no.

Sent from Tapatalk

[CandymanColumbusGA]

according to the 2pm pdt/21z discussion, they're saying if it crosses over mexico and makes it to the other side into the GOM, they will not give it a name change, but retain the name Barbara.

 

i always did wonder what would happen in the unlikely case of something like that happening. now I know.

It didn't use to be that way. They used to rename storms that crossed from one basin to the next. It hasn't happened much over the past few years. http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/B5.html (H/T Brad Panovich)

[phil882]

It appears Barbara may be now over the GOM, and it picked a very favorable time to reemerge during the diurnal maximum for oceanic convection. It seems at least the mid-level vortex made it across intact.

 

 

[Ed Lizard]

So, theoretically, if Barbara became a tropical storm, stalled over Florida for three days and dropped a meter of rain and caused the worst flooding in Orlando in recent memory, and they retired the name, they'd retire a Pacific basin name for what it did in the Atlantic Basin?

 

Pure hypothetical.

[wxmx]

Coatzacoalcos is reporting consistent west winds now, while a station near Paraiso, about 80mi east is reporting SE winds... Winds are weaklish, but consistent, and pressures are just a bit lower than what they were yesterday at this time. This confirms a weak but well defined LLC in the extreme SW GOM. Welcome Barbara to the Atlantic.

[Srain]

[Ed Lizard]

Based on satellite presentation and 8 am PDT NHC discussion, I don't think we'll see an Atlantic Barbara this year.  Unless it really cranks in the next few hours, I think the 2 pm CDT discussion will drop it as a remnant low, and even if it did regenerate, which doesn't seem likely, it'll be renamed.

[wxmx]

From the latest advisory

 

INDING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN A REAL
CHALLENGE THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF ROTATION THAT IS EVIDENT ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH SURFACE WIND
OBSERVATIONS FROM STANDARD AND AUTOMATED MEXICAN WEATHER STATIONS.
IN FACT...THERE IS SOME DOUBT THAT A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER
EVEN EXISTS. HOWEVER...WE THINK THE MOST PRUDENT ACTION AT THIS
TIME IS TO MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION UNTIL ADDITIONAL
VISIBLE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA BECOME AVAILABLE. THE CURRENT
ADVISORY POSITION IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE WIND
DATA.

 

 

Not sure they are assessing it correctly, Coatzacoalcos has been reporting mostly westerly to SW winds for a few hours...that would place the LLC to the N, close to center of rotation from the sat imagery...if it was to the west of Coatzacoalcos, as the advisory positions it, winds would be mostly southerly.

 

In any case, Barbara looks sick, and I don't think anything interesting will come out of her.

[wxmx]

Now I see...there's no northerly winds in the stations west of Coatzacoalcos....It's probably so weak that the morning land breeze is probably overwhelming pitiful Barbara. NHC was right, after all (shocking)

[Ground Scouring]

Long-range 12Z ECMWF: Andrea, 55 kt/997 mb into Gulfport, MS

[phil882]

Long-range 12Z ECMWF: Andrea, 55 kt/997 mb into Gulfport, MS

Classic TC evolution within a gyre too as it develops out of a mesovort on the eastern periphery of the gyre circulation and rotates around the mean center.

[NJwinter23]

Long-range 12Z ECMWF: Andrea, 55 kt/997 mb into Gulfport, MS

 

where do you get that text data from the euro showing 55kt strength?

[WxFreak11]

Wiseguyz. I saw these posts.

We know you so well Josh  

[Ed Lizard]

Hour 228 Euro per AccuWx has a small area of either 65 mph winds or 65 knot winds just offshore MOB.  AccuWx PPV precip also suggests most precip along and East of the center.

 

 

Too bad AccuWx 10 meter wind product doesn't mention units.