January Banter

[griteater]

Have we ever had severe cold outbreaks with a lack of a -NAO in the SE? Sure the PNA and AO COULD be favorable. Snowcover will also be substantially lower from this warm up so you would expect it to moderate by the time it reaches the SE. Where is everyone getting this cold from for mid-late JAN? I'm most likely missing another important factor or two.

 

Here are a few dates that I looked up with respect to 'severe' cold.  The temps are for Charlotte, NC.  I looked at the daily teleconnection values for the AO, NAO, and PNA for the 10 days leading up to the date listed, and took an average (bold red indicates where the teleconnection value was strongly neg/pos...for example -AO indicates a strongly negative AO)

 

Jan 30, 1966

Hi/Lo Temp: 19/5...Avg 53/32

-AO / -NAO / PNA (neutral)

 

Jan 17, 1977

Hi/Lo Temp: 25/5...Avg 48/28

-AO / -NAO / +PNA

 

Jan 11, 1982

Hi/Lo Temp: 27/1...Avg 47/28

-AO / -NAO / -PNA

 

Jan 21, 1985

Hi/Lo Temp: 21/5...Avg 49/29

-AO / -NAO / +PNA

 

Jan 28, 1986

Hi/Lo Temp: 25/5...Avg 51/30

AO (neutral) / +NAO / +PNA

 

Dec 23, 1989

Hi/Lo Temp: 21/9...Avg 51/33

-AO / NAO (neutral) / PNA (neutral)

 

Jan 19, 1994

Hi/Lo Temp: 23/6...Avg 48/31

-AO / NAO (neutral) / PNA (neutral)

[WilkesboroDude]

[Shawn]

I'm so close to just leaving and not reading input on this forum anymore.  200+ hr models, 300+ hr models, it's all ridiculous.  If these models showed a blizzard past 192 or even 72, even the Euro, I wouldn't trust it with a single grain of salt.  Face it guys, we are gonna end up having this whole "strat warming" deal translate down (if it's even gonna do anything soon) right in spring just to wreck us with severe weather.  I said before, the "cold" on previous models after this whole warm deal wasn't even cold enough for much in the SE.  These last two years remind me of when I was a weather newbie and thought the blue 0c 850 temp line meant snow with .10 of an inch of precip even chasing the cold.

 

Everyone's cold forecasts busted all the way back to October/Novemeber.  The severe season was garbage and so was the Hurricane season.  (don't give me this whole Sandy thing either.  Although it was horrible, it wouldn't have been much to it if it didn't hit the NE).  It seems since everyone has gone "pay-site" they're all desperately trying to get everyone onboard to keep reading their websites with excitement that most lilkely will keep being delayed until they are able to talk about severe weather to spark more interest (if that even happens).  Money talks I suppose. (take that last statement how you want)

 

You have people on this forum rushing to make threads and even duplicate threads just to have this whole "mojo" or "im important" atmosphere.  It doesn't matter who creates a thread, the weather will do what it will do regardless.

 

It's beyond people grasping at straws and wishcasting now.  It's down-right sickening honestly.  There are certain posters on here that I won't name that get down right 5-posted or banned for basically saying the weather won't be glorious as wanted.  I understand you want meteo lingo with their posts but you don't really need it to be a correct result lately.  Although I don't apologize for my thoughts, I do sympathize with everyone for the poo weather we have been having for almost two years now.  This isn't directed at anyone specifically

 

Where's Widre btw?

 

Edit: Please stop with the "if the" or the "what if" from model runs.  Feb 1973 doesn't happen too often.

[JWXnc]

I'm so close to just leaving and not reading input on this forum anymore.  200+ hr models, 300+ hr models, it's all ridiculous... etc. 

 

I feel your pain. This place has become a circus the past month or so. I've been around since at least 2006 or so and easternuswx, and I always enjoyed coming here to read everybody's thoughts. But this year, in particular, it has become a lame circus. Having to weed through pages of crap posts every morning or evening with about 1 quality post for every 10 crap posts from the same dern people everyday. The race to start threads... comes across as very childish.

 

I've enjoyed you old-timers for the past several years, and I have respect for yall. But the way this board has evolved the past few months... something needs to change, or it is just going to get worse and worse.

[Shawn]

I feel your pain. This place has become a circus the past month or so. I've been around since at least 2006 or so and easternuswx, and I always enjoyed coming here to read everybody's thoughts. But this year, in particular, it has become a lame circus. Having to weed through pages of crap posts every morning or evening with about 1 quality post for every 10 crap posts from the same dern people everyday. The race to start threads... comes across as very childish.

 

I've enjoyed you old-timers for the past several years, and I have respect for yall. But the way this board has evolved the past few months... something needs to change, or it is just going to get worse and worse.

 

I've worn out the scrolling wheel on my mouse from skipping posts this year.  Maybe AWX should sell replacement mice for us all! (of course at wholesale prices).

[Mr Bob]

Found my winter over the holidays...Skiing at Sugar from the 27th through the 30th;it was wonderful...just gotta pick your spots....bring on warm weather!

[tonysc]

Interesting facts for Asheville.  The last measurable snow at AVL (other than a trace) was 0.4 inches on January 13, 2011.  There are other parts of the county that may have gotten more from a NW flow event, but those have been the only snowmakers around here in almost two years.

 

I remember hearing on the NWS out of GSP some statistics about last winter, they said that the winter of 2011-2012 was the first time since they've been keeping records, which is over 100 years, that there wasn't any measurable snow in Asheville, and the first time since they've been keeping records that there wasn't even a flake of snow reported in Greenville, Spartanburg. Sad to say the least. I certainly hope it won't be a trend.

[tonysc]

Well, today is the 3rd...the day I said we'd have a wide spread zrain storm in Ga.  My hopes for a new career are in ashes.  Following my spectacular win in the pick the first tropical storm and where it will form thread, my confidence was high, my path was set, my arms ready to hold the awards, my ears the adulation...yet now, I'm doomed once more to oblivion.  Doomed to the trash heap of failed storm predictors.  My rise was to be meteoric, yet in failure I crashed without as much as a sputter.  Weather seer...thy name be ruination.  I am destitute....

 

 

 

Ok...... I will go out on a limb and predict wide spread ip/sn for the nGa area, from Macon north on Feb 3rd.  Take it to the bank!!!

 

You experience may vary.  The sponsor of this prediction is not resposible in anyway for similarities, real or imagined to this prediction.  Prediction subject to change.without warning.  All predictions are non binding!  Said predictor wlll be held harmless in all instances of litigation.  Prediction is just for fun, if you take it to heart, you need to find other outlets!!  That is all.

 

Ok Tony, I'm on my way to the bank right now on that one, here's hoping that you're right.

[nchighcountrywx]

Very close asteroid pass on February 15.....within 22,000 miles

[metalicwx366]

Very close asteroid pass on February 15.....within 22,000 miles

So what impacts will this have on the SE? Could it pull the polar vortex further south east than modeled? Could it drive the NAO into a negative phase? Or could it increase the cold and storminess by donating low pressure systems and absorbing high pressure systems as it passes by?

[Isopycnic]

So what impacts will this have on the SE? Could it pull the polar vortex further south east than modeled? Could it drive the NAO into a negative phase? Or could it increase the cold and storminess by donating low pressure systems and absorbing high pressure systems as it passes by?

[CandymanColumbusGA]

So what impacts will this have on the SE? Could it pull the polar vortex further south east than modeled? Could it drive the NAO into a negative phase? Or could it increase the cold and storminess by donating low pressure systems and absorbing high pressure systems as it passes by?

 

[calculus1]

I'm so close to just leaving and not reading input on this forum anymore.  200+ hr models, 300+ hr models, it's all ridiculous.  If these models showed a blizzard past 192 or even 72, even the Euro, I wouldn't trust it with a single grain of salt.  Face it guys, we are gonna end up having this whole "strat warming" deal translate down (if it's even gonna do anything soon) right in spring just to wreck us with severe weather.  I said before, the "cold" on previous models after this whole warm deal wasn't even cold enough for much in the SE.  These last two years remind me of when I was a weather newbie and thought the blue 0c 850 temp line meant snow with .10 of an inch of precip even chasing the cold.

 

Everyone's cold forecasts busted all the way back to October/Novemeber.  The severe season was garbage and so was the Hurricane season.  (don't give me this whole Sandy thing either.  Although it was horrible, it wouldn't have been much to it if it didn't hit the NE).  It seems since everyone has gone "pay-site" they're all desperately trying to get everyone onboard to keep reading their websites with excitement that most lilkely will keep being delayed until they are able to talk about severe weather to spark more interest (if that even happens).  Money talks I suppose. (take that last statement how you want)

 

You have people on this forum rushing to make threads and even duplicate threads just to have this whole "mojo" or "im important" atmosphere.  It doesn't matter who creates a thread, the weather will do what it will do regardless.

 

It's beyond people grasping at straws and wishcasting now.  It's down-right sickening honestly.  There are certain posters on here that I won't name that get down right 5-posted or banned for basically saying the weather won't be glorious as wanted.  I understand you want meteo lingo with their posts but you don't really need it to be a correct result lately.  Although I don't apologize for my thoughts, I do sympathize with everyone for the poo weather we have been having for almost two years now.  This isn't directed at anyone specifically

 

Where's Widre btw?

 

Edit: Please stop with the "if the" or the "what if" from model runs.  Feb 1973 doesn't happen too often.

 

 

I feel your pain. This place has become a circus the past month or so. I've been around since at least 2006 or so and easternuswx, and I always enjoyed coming here to read everybody's thoughts. But this year, in particular, it has become a lame circus. Having to weed through pages of crap posts every morning or evening with about 1 quality post for every 10 crap posts from the same dern people everyday. The race to start threads... comes across as very childish.

 

I've enjoyed you old-timers for the past several years, and I have respect for yall. But the way this board has evolved the past few months... something needs to change, or it is just going to get worse and worse.

 

Guys, a weather board is what you make of it.  Nothing is forcing you to stay here, but I think there are great posts from certain people on this site.  I personally enjoy the "what if" scenarios from our talented mets.  They talk about synoptics and the scenarios that would need to occur for us to get lucky.  What does it matter if it doesn't come to fruition?  If we only talked about what is definitely going to happen, there would only be a post or two per day.  That's boring!  If certain posters get on your nerve, make use of the "Ignore" button.  It's really not that hard.

 

The "good ol' days" are gone.  We can't live in the past.  Everything evolves and changes and we must adapt.  Where else would you go for this weather discussion?  Accuweather?  Talkweather?  There's not a whole lot of good options out there.  I suppose you could attempt to start up your own forum.  But, I'm proud to be a member of this forum and I'll strive to make it a great place to discuss weather.  Despite occasional annoyances, I really enjoy this place and the posters (for the most part) that contribute valuable information.

[strongwxnc]

Very interesting! Thanks for posting

Very close asteroid pass on February 15.....within 22,000 miles

 

 

[strongwxnc]

*banter

I agree with ya bro. Like Shawn and JWXnc I have been around for close to 10 years..But, I really have no problem with any making threads about anything. If you do not like when threads are made for non events either do not post in them, ignore them or report them. That part should be very simple. However, back in the day threads for a non event would have been deleted.

 

I also do not have a problem with members talking about anything in the LR. Most folks understand that a 300+ hour model run, or even a 100+ model run should be took with a boulder of salt... However, should we not talk about it?  Last I checked it weather forecasting is about looking at models and talking about what may or may not happen. It is nothing personal. Once someone takes the banter or discussion on here personal, then the problem starts.

 

I think I have more of a problem when people start bitching about posts then people talking about LR ideas. I guess I do not mind scrolling past peoples thoughts. It really does not take much time to by past a post.  $hit, their is a hand of posters on here that I do not ignore but have not read one of their posts in months. Either way, WWBB, Eastern and now AMWX has been my go to for weather for the last 10 years. I have no plans to change that in the future.

*banter

 

Below is how some must feel

LOL

 

(NSFWL)

 

Guys, a weather board is what you make of it.  Nothing is forcing you to stay here, but I think there are great posts from certain people on this site.  I personally enjoy the "what if" scenarios from our talented mets.  They talk about synoptics and the scenarios that would need to occur for us to get lucky.  What does it matter if it doesn't come to fruition?  If we only talked about what is definitely going to happen, there would only be a post or two per day.  That's boring!  If certain posters get on your nerve, make use of the "Ignore" button.  It's really not that hard.

 

The "good ol' days" are gone.  We can't live in the past.  Everything evolves and changes and we must adapt.  Where else would you go for this weather discussion?  Accuweather?  Talkweather?  There's not a whole lot of good options out there.  I suppose you could attempt to start up your own forum.  But, I'm proud to be a member of this forum and I'll strive to make it a great place to discuss weather.  Despite occasional annoyances, I really enjoy this place and the posters (for the most part) that contribute valuable information.

 

 

[Cold Rain]

Strong and Calc,

Good posts. There seems to be a lot more angst and frustration over posting this year than I have ever observed in the past. I guess that's a function of a couple of things, one being the lack of winter for two years and the other is that some of the newer members are still figuring out how to contribute....starting lots of threads and stuff.

But to imply that tons of time is expended scrolling through topics is a strawman and just really isn't true, unless you visit once per week. In fact, the January pattern thread is currently growing at less than a page per day. The Banter thread is rocking, but so what? And it's not like they're a million other threads being started. Try visiting the New England forum for a day or two. Then you'll really get tired of the scrolling thing.

And if we didn't at least for fun talk about long range stuff, there wouldn't be anything to discuss, and people would gripe about where everyone was.

I would like to hear a suggestion about what is supposed to happen on a weather board when the weather for the next 5 days is warm and boring. Nothing? Something? What?

[burgertime]

So what impacts will this have on the SE? Could it pull the polar vortex further south east than modeled? Could it drive the NAO into a negative phase? Or could it increase the cold and storminess by donating low pressure systems and absorbing high pressure systems as it passes by?

 

New thread for this threat?

[frazdaddy]

Guys, a weather board is what you make of it.  Nothing is forcing you to stay here, but I think there are great posts from certain people on this site.  I personally enjoy the "what if" scenarios from our talented mets.  They talk about synoptics and the scenarios that would need to occur for us to get lucky.  What does it matter if it doesn't come to fruition?  If we only talked about what is definitely going to happen, there would only be a post or two per day.  That's boring!  If certain posters get on your nerve, make use of the "Ignore" button.  It's really not that hard.

 

The "good ol' days" are gone.  We can't live in the past.  Everything evolves and changes and we must adapt.  Where else would you go for this weather discussion?  Accuweather?  Talkweather?  There's not a whole lot of good options out there.  I suppose you could attempt to start up your own forum.  But, I'm proud to be a member of this forum and I'll strive to make it a great place to discuss weather.  Despite occasional annoyances, I really enjoy this place and the posters (for the most part) that contribute valuable information.

This.....let's not toss the baby out with the bath water....(showing my age) I just pick out the posters that are normally relevent and enjoy the disco.

[Stovepipe]

I'm so close to just leaving and not reading input on this forum anymore.  200+ hr models, 300+ hr models, it's all ridiculous.  If these models showed a blizzard past 192 or even 72, even the Euro, I wouldn't trust it with a single grain of salt.  Face it guys, we are gonna end up having this whole "strat warming" deal translate down (if it's even gonna do anything soon) right in spring just to wreck us with severe weather.  I said before, the "cold" on previous models after this whole warm deal wasn't even cold enough for much in the SE.  These last two years remind me of when I was a weather newbie and thought the blue 0c 850 temp line meant snow with .10 of an inch of precip even chasing the cold.

 

Everyone's cold forecasts busted all the way back to October/Novemeber.  The severe season was garbage and so was the Hurricane season.  (don't give me this whole Sandy thing either.  Although it was horrible, it wouldn't have been much to it if it didn't hit the NE).  It seems since everyone has gone "pay-site" they're all desperately trying to get everyone onboard to keep reading their websites with excitement that most lilkely will keep being delayed until they are able to talk about severe weather to spark more interest (if that even happens).  Money talks I suppose. (take that last statement how you want)

 

You have people on this forum rushing to make threads and even duplicate threads just to have this whole "mojo" or "im important" atmosphere.  It doesn't matter who creates a thread, the weather will do what it will do regardless.

 

It's beyond people grasping at straws and wishcasting now.  It's down-right sickening honestly.  There are certain posters on here that I won't name that get down right 5-posted or banned for basically saying the weather won't be glorious as wanted.  I understand you want meteo lingo with their posts but you don't really need it to be a correct result lately.  Although I don't apologize for my thoughts, I do sympathize with everyone for the poo weather we have been having for almost two years now.  This isn't directed at anyone specifically

 

Where's Widre btw?

 

Edit: Please stop with the "if the" or the "what if" from model runs.  Feb 1973 doesn't happen too often.

 

Seriously?

 

[Brick Tamland]

Looks like we'll warm up next week, but then it'll cool down again. Not sure it will be cold enough for any snow around here, though. I am thinking more and more that we are either going to have an awesome week of some huge storms like in Jan 2000 or nothing at all. I just don't see getting three or four storms this winter. It's either going to be one or two big time snows or nothing at all.

[mackerel_sky]

Does he know he's already one?

Looks like we'll warm up next week, but then it'll cool down again. Not sure it will be cold enough for any snow around here, though. I am thinking more and more that we are either going to have an awesome week of some huge storms like in Jan 2000 or nothing at all. I just don't see getting three or four storms this winter. It's either going to be one or two big time snows or nothing at all.

[Brick Tamland]

Does he know he's already one?

 

Yes, I am number one.

[burgertime]

[Brick Tamland]

You ever wonder if some folks keep trumping the chance of snow just to get people to keep looking at their site?

[Shawn]

I think a few people who read my long, drawn out post took it the wrong way.  All I meant is the weather has sucked lately and the models have been changing their solutions so much that anything LR is volatile.  I look at the long range stuff too, I just don't believe any of it, lol.  I've looked at some other region's sub forums.. it's horrific.

[metalicwx366]

I think a few people who read my long, drawn out post took it the wrong way. All I meant is the weather has sucked lately and the models have been changing their solutions so much that anything LR is volatile. I look at the long range stuff too, I just don't believe any of it, lol. I've looked at some other region's sub forums.. it's horrific.

LOL. We aren't that terrible. But yeah average temps are boring! Can't wait for those 80s next week. Either give me Mega cold or Mega warm and some wind!

[Cold Rain]

You ever wonder if some folks keep trumping the chance of snow just to get people to keep looking at their site?

Yes. And I also wonder if some trumpet cold and snow on the free stuff to get people to go to their sites but on the expensive, hidden corporate side, the talk more "realistically" about the upcoming period, and give a real and more accurate forecast. Because what I think is if I'm a big investor or big company and I pay somebody a lot of money and they always seem to be hyping and getting the forecast wrong, why would I keep paying them?

I'm not talking about anyone specifically here, but I have thought about that possibility. I'm probably as wrong as I can be though.

[Cold Rain]

I think a few people who read my long, drawn out post took it the wrong way. All I meant is the weather has sucked lately and the models have been changing their solutions so much that anything LR is volatile. I look at the long range stuff too, I just don't believe any of it, lol. I've looked at some other region's sub forums.. it's horrific.

It's all good. We just need snow. That's what we need. And maybe just a liiiiittttle restraint on some of the thread starting.

[Bevo]

I think a few people who read my long, drawn out post took it the wrong way.  All I meant is the weather has sucked lately and the models have been changing their solutions so much that anything LR is volatile.  I look at the long range stuff too, I just don't believe any of it, lol.  I've looked at some other region's sub forums.. it's horrific.

 

I can dig that.  I will never trust LR meteorology.  Life has taught me that lesson.  I wonder if some of the tension is more due to the different perspectives of what sucks and what doesn't.  I've rather enjoyed the weather, although the sun is nice to see again.  But I am different from those who prefer really warm or really cold.  And that's okay.  There's nothing wrong with your earlier post.

[NGaWxNerd]

New thread for this threat?

 

Good one Burger.