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January Banter


WilkesboroDude

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I've been sucked in! Someone kick me out of here so I get something done today. I'm so desperate to see even a pellet of sleet that I am hanging on every word or thought posted in discussion. I even read Wilkesdude posts this am.LOL

 

What is with you Georgia folks and your love for Sleet?  :pimp:

 

The Euro is still holding fast to having some snow and ice around here this week. It wouldn't take a lot with that combo to cause some real problems on the road with the temps being so cold the next four days.

 

Nope.  At this point, I am becoming quite confident that a lot of us are going to see wintry precip out of this.  Whether it will be snow, sleet, or freezing rain (or all three!) or if it will quickly turn over to rain is very up in the air, though.

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It seems these events that pop up within 5 days and it's actually cold always turn out better than those that are tracked from 7 to 10 days out.

 

Fixed it for you.  Whenever there's cold air in place the chances are always better.  Not buying it yet though until the low is showed in SC. 

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Fixed it for you.  Whenever there's cold air in place the chances are always better.  Not buying it yet though until the low is showed in SC. 

 

I'm with you on this.  I'm not getting pushed around again.  For Upstate SC, there really isn't anything to substantiate more than cold rain, if anything.  Wrong track, wrong origination.  Wrong type of system really.

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I'm with you on this.  I'm not getting pushed around again.  For Upstate SC, there really isn't anything to substantiate more than cold rain, if anything.  Wrong track, wrong origination.  Wrong type of system really.

 

Right.  Nothing good about this system right now IMO.  I'm surprised the models even hint at winter precip with it.  Hopefully models will switch it up and trend WAY south, then maybe.  At least with the last system we had the ULL "dynamics" hope.  This one I'm not sure how it's going to work out. 

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and I thought the last system was grasping for straws... Sheesh!

 

The last system - at the very least - resulted in snow for some and had much more to lean on.  At the end of the day, the 925's brought it's demise.  It had climo on it's side, buckets of qpf, 850's crashing, etc... For Upstate SC, it was a legitimate chance which usually stands in stark contrast to.......

 

Right.  Nothing good about this system right now IMO.  I'm surprised the models even hint at winter precip with it.  Hopefully models will switch it up and trend WAY south, then maybe.  At least with the last system we had the ULL "dynamics" hope.  This one I'm not sure how it's going to work out. 

 

...systems like the one being modeled for Friday.  To add to 'Niner's comment - in this part of the SE, I will take a chance at a decent ULL (moving from SW to NE below the "Horn of Death" end of the Apps spine) every time over any clipper-type passage from the NW  - for anyone east and south of the WNC mountains.  I've witnessed the dramatic effects of ULL dynamics enough to be convinced that clipper swings are not where I want to place my odds.

 

Besides - I effing hate ZR and the headaches that tend to be in it's company.  Power outages coupled with COLD temps become a very different experience when you have young children.

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I think a lot of us will end up seeing some frozen precip with this one...probably more folks overall than the last one. But I don't see how it's going to be a big event for anyone. It's moving too fast, it's coming in too shallow, and it's not taking an ideal track for the SE. I just hope I get to see maybe 30 minutes worth of light snow or sleet.

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I think a lot of us will end up seeing some frozen precip with this one...probably more folks overall than the last one. But I don't see how it's going to be a big event for anyone. It's moving too fast, it's coming in too shallow, and it's not taking an ideal track for the SE. I just hope I get to see maybe 30 minutes worth of light snow or sleet.

 

I remember our last big ice storm in Dec 02 wasn't projected to do much, either. Then I woke up with no power and a tree branch on the hood of my car. I also remember once when I was in high school and went to get on the bus and slid crossing the street because of a little freezing drizzle. Later, our bus couldn't make it up a hill and the police had to give people on the bus rides home. There were wrecks all day in front of my house. That event wasn't supposed to do much, either. These CAD events can be surprising. And we don't even need much for it to be havoc on the roads.

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I think a lot of us will end up seeing some frozen precip with this one...probably more folks overall than the last one. But I don't see how it's going to be a big event for anyone. It's moving too fast, it's coming in too shallow, and it's not taking an ideal track for the SE. I just hope I get to see maybe 30 minutes worth of light snow or sleet.

 

That's probably the ceiling for this event IMO. 

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I remember our last big ice storm in Dec 02 wasn't projected to do much, either. Then I woke up with no power and a tree branch on the hood of my car. I also remember once when I was in high school and went to get on the bus and slid crossing the street because of a little freezing drizzle. Later, our bus couldn't make it up a hill and the police had to give people on the bus rides home. There were wrecks all day in front of my house. That event wasn't supposed to do much, either. These CAD events can be surprising. And we don't even need much for it to be havoc on the roads.

I thought that one was supposed to have plenty of precip but the cold was questionable....and then it trended much colder as the event closed in. I might be remembering wrong though.

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WxSouth

Winter Storm Possible For : KY/WVa/VA/NC/ETN/nSC/neGA

The new GFS keeps surface temps below freezing in strong damming event down to Clemson, SC on Friday, with overrunning moisture, snow will spread across Kentucky, West Virginia, most of Virginia and northern NC on Friday, with mixed bag in Upstate SC and northeast GA and east TN. But GFS amounts are much lower than ECMWF model.

I'll have a full update at www.wxsouth.com after 12z ECMWF model run

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I hate it when soundings get posted in the discussion threads. It takes a long time to scroll past them on BB. But it is appropriate for them to be posted there. It's my own problem, so I have to find a way to deal. :)

 

 

It's a BB issue man.  I hate it too.

 

 

BB?

 

Coming from the academic perspective all I can think of is BlackBoard.

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BB?

 

Coming from the academic perspective all I can think of is BlackBoard.

 

My problem is with BlackBerry - I presumed the same with CR.

 

Up until two years ago, BB meant Blackbaud in my lexicon.  Customers always confused it with BlackBoard.  Boom - Kevin Bacon.

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There are things growing everywhere down here also. Ha! And our drought friend is coming back.

Yeah, but where you are it's your summer, right? And here the rains are a bit less than before, but I still got over 2 1/2 from this last episode, even though north Atl. got over 5....so I still don't feel droughty.  What I would like to feel is frozen ground.  Haven't seen the ice squeezing up in stalagmites in years.  T

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My problem is with BlackBerry - I presumed the same with CR.

Up until two years ago, BB meant Blackbaud in my lexicon. Customers always confused it with BlackBoard. Boom - Kevin Bacon.

Yeah, Blackberry. I need an iPhone real bad.

Calc, you post all the soundings you want. I'll just ice my thumb down and we're good to go.

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What's your Bacon Number?

 

http://oracleofbacon.org/

 

So I tried it again with someone else and scored a 2.  But I'm leaving it there because I'm about to blow your mind:

 

Kevin Bacon was in 'Hero at Large' with Andrew Masset -> who was in 'Remember The Titans' with Paula Claire Jones -> who worked as an Account Executive with Me at Blackbaud -> which is often confused with Blackboard (you)......how ya like me now?

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