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January Banter

WilkesboroDude

By WilkesboroDude,
in Southeastern States

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

I also dropped my Ipod Touch in the toilet earlier when the EURO came out.

Now the screen/light will not turn on. I made sure it was dry. Sound works when I hit a button or two pretty sure the light is just not working.

Dude, that sucks... But I don't know if you're being serious or not, since I can't imagine how one could accidentally throw an iPad in the toilet.

Get a big pan and put some rice in it. Then, put your iPad in that. That's your only hope.

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Jon

Jon

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I disagree pretty strenuously with this grade. The NAM was the only model consistently showing the snow shadow in the lee of the Apps, and it was right. Sure, it over-predicted amounts in several different locations in NC (my back yard, for example), but it pretty much got the areas correct. I give it a C for the event.

The majority of the map was overdone, that's my reasoning. I could care less if it showed a snow hole correctly. I'll up my grade to a D because of the snow hole.

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Jon

Jon

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You grade too hard maybe even an A for parts of the foothills. GFS gets the F for 6+ inches.

Several short range models performed well.

This isn't a grade on how the model performed in certain areas, I'm talking overall and no I don't mean how well it did inside 24. The model clearly had the snow overdone. Inside 48hrs it had me at 4"....it flurried for 20 minutes. I think the model missed something there, big time. Central NC or not.
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calculus1

calculus1

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You grade too hard maybe even an A for parts of the foothills. GFS gets the F for 6+ inches. 

 

Several short range models performed well.

 

I agree on the short-range models.  That's how we knew things were going badly:  When the HWRF and RAP were trending badly.  Yeah, GFS pretty much failed.  I guess you could give the NAM an A for the foothills because it predicted no snow there and that's what happened (other than the Brushy Mts.).  But, overall, it vastly over-estimated totals in other locales.  Thus, no better than a C for me. 

 

The majority of the map was overdone, that's my reasoning. I could care less if it showed a snow hole correctly. I'll up my grade to a D because of the snow hole.

 

Glad I could persuade you to give a little extra credit for the local minimum.  :clap::D

I guess I just give more weight to the location of snowfall rather than to the amount of snowfall.  Thus, my reasoning for grading the NAM a C.

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
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Your jokes tend to fall flat, though, and don't seem too funny. Nor do they even seem like jokes.

Yes, clipper-type systems are not great for us here, but they have been known to over-perform. I don't particularly care how I get the snow, though. I'll take any I can get.

It wasn't supposed to be funny. And wasn't a joke. Ok I should've worded it different for you. I was making up something there...
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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
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Geez! I read that as iPad, not iPod. That still sucks but not as bad. Maybe I dropped my glasses in the toilet. Still, put it in rice and dry it out. It may come back.

Lol can an ipad fit in the toilet?

http://www.aquamanagers.com/assets/toilet-installed.jpg

http://cdni.wired.co.uk/620x413/g_j/iPad_5_1.jpg

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oconeexman

oconeexman

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The NAM got a big fat F for the last storm. It's unreliable with these overrunning, hard to predict type systems that might spit out a few tenths of an inch somewhere in W NC. So I'll be hugging the euro, GFS, and maybe the ruc when push comes to shove.

From what I saw after the last event/non event they're all pretty damned hard to predict. When every model in the house has just about every expert around here convinced and for the most part "fails" then generally speaking its saying "I'm mother nature..you just think you know how I roll!"

Bottom line the complexity of every variable that goes into weather forecasting has found new scenarios to piece together it seems, forecasting winter weather around here has only gotten tougher for the non mountain areas. I don't believe any model has a clue specifically but you got to piece together the parts of each one that makes the most sense. And even then for some areas you will "miss"/"fail". Seeing all this new technology has given a lot of us high and false expectations many times and are still wrong....a lot!

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burgertime

burgertime

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The NAM got a big fat F for the last storm. It's unreliable with these overrunning, hard to predict type systems that might spit out a few tenths of an inch somewhere in W NC. So I'll be hugging the euro, GFS, and maybe the ruc when push comes to shove.

 

I disagree with you Jon. I would give it more of a B or so. It actually did do pretty well on totals and the over all pattern. Where it failed at was predicting just how strong that low would stay. That is really what killed us, it weakened at the very last second. Had it stayed a little strong the NAM would have verified and the fact that the others models pretty much fell to it automatically ups it's score for that storm. 

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dsaur

dsaur

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My yard is blighted with daffodils.  They are everywhere.  I'm glad to say, though, I've grown as a man, with more restraint, and I'm less demonstrative too.  No longer do I rage about the yard stomping the cursed things back to hell, where they came from; but, rather, I smile calmly..... serenely accepting........ as I run the nasty little harbingers of spring over with the lawn mower!! 

 

Finally, on the 18z I see a storm I can hope to believe in...a low in Fla. with cold air near by.  Frame 36 maybe?  T

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weatherfide

weatherfide

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I personally feel that its pretty ridiculous for anyone to be excited about this storm. I haven't seen one met say anything positive about this.

Yep, I certainly agree.

 

The long run looks average to mild. I wonder where the severe storm weather experts are hiding? It's time to start thinking about spring weather. The core of winter is over and I'm ready to move on.

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calculus1

calculus1

Posted
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Over doing it. I would have waited until 0z...but again I am a nobody. 

 

Throwing three scenarios out to the public is too much. 

 

We must always remember to guard the public sentiment closely.  We sure don't want them to be overwhelmed with three choices.  That's too much for them to deal with.  In fact, two political parties is all they can handle, so why would we expect them to be able to handle three weather scenarios?  Oh, the humanity!  What is the world coming to?  How will we ever go on?

 

:whistle:

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calculus1

calculus1

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Over doing it. I would have waited until 0z...but again I am a nobody. 

 

Throwing three scenarios out to the public is too much. 

 

 

He does that with a lot of things so whenever he gets it right he can call it out or whatever.

 

OK, seriously??  You guys are calling out Brad Panovich and saying he doesn't know what he's doing?  I've met the man, and he knows his stuff.  He's real and down to earth.  He loves weather.  He actually likes talking about scenarios.  Personally, I appreciate that much more in an on-air met than these who always go the safe route until the bitter end.  But, really, who am I to judge?  They're the ones who have earned the degrees, interviewed at the station, "won" the interview process, and have received a real-life paying job because they're good at what they do.  So, who's winning here?!  I think the answer is quite obvious.

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

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OK, seriously?? You guys are calling out Brad Panovich and saying he doesn't know what he's doing? I've met the man, and he knows his stuff. He's real and down to earth. He loves weather. He actually likes talking about scenarios. Personally, I appreciate that much more in an on-air met than these who always go the safe route until the bitter end. But, really, who am I to judge? They're the ones who have earned the degrees, interviewed at the station, "won" the interview process, and have received a real-life paying job because they're good at what they do. So, who's winning here?! I think the answer is quite obvious.

My bad I thought that was DTs map.

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WilkesboroDude

WilkesboroDude

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OK, seriously??  You guys are calling out Brad Panovich and saying he doesn't know what he's doing?  I've met the man, and he knows his stuff.  He's real and down to earth.  He loves weather.  He actually likes talking about scenarios.  Personally, I appreciate that much more in an on-air met than these who always go the safe route until the bitter end.  But, really, who am I to judge?  They're the ones who have earned the degrees, interviewed at the station, "won" the interview process, and have received a real-life paying job because they're good at what they do.  So, who's winning here?!  I think the answer is quite obvious.

 

I am calling them all out (Van, Brad, etc.) because every single one of them showed the EURO snowfall map.

 

I would have waited until tomorrow. Give a cold rain forecast and say things could change per track.

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

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OK, seriously??  You guys are calling out Brad Panovich and saying he doesn't know what he's doing?  I've met the man, and he knows his stuff.  He's real and down to earth.  He loves weather.  He actually likes talking about scenarios.  Personally, I appreciate that much more in an on-air met than these who always go the safe route until the bitter end.  But, really, who am I to judge?  They're the ones who have earned the degrees, interviewed at the station, "won" the interview process, and have received a real-life paying job because they're good at what they do.  So, who's winning here?!  I think the answer is quite obvious.

 

 

I agree with this.  Why would anyone expect a definitive call on this one?  No one knows what will occur so pointing out the possibilities is a very responsible thing to do.  This has high bust potential and I wouldn't want to call a snowstorm only to have a couple of tenths of rain, or call rain and have a few inches of snow.  Either way he'd be crucified.  Why make a call when you don't have to?  Be patient and let the modeling give us a better idea as we move forward.  JMO.

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