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January Banter


WilkesboroDude

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This is bull****. People always making up crap. Always using words like could or would to protect themselves. Either it happens or not.

 

.......your comment.........is starting..........starting to make sense to me........and where as I would normally agree with your perspective of "say it straight or just don't say it" - in this case, it's not that easy.

 

All of science, was at one point "speculative".  So it is fair to say that given the relative unknowns and less than solid conclusions - they have to at least ASK the questions and give possible reasons.  The problem with our current social/political climate is that you have to CYA no matter what you put out there.  That's one of the reasons I don't even get involved in the climate debate.  Science has deemed this earth over 4 billion years old.  Yet the data set to decide on a global theory is based on a time span that is extremely small in comparison.  It could be happening (I believe the earth has warmed - but man made or not is my question).  I would just like a few Milena more worth of data to be sure.  That's all I'm saying.

 

With something like a little ice age - you cannot conclude whether it's happening or not.  At least not yet.  Does anyone remember the frantic New Ice Age movement of the 70's?  Now insert a new movement but for opposite reasons just 20 years after that (and still today).  And we wonder why this country has such a conspiracy theory issue.

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.......your comment.........is starting..........starting to make sense to me........and where as I would normally agree with your perspective of "say it straight or just don't say it" - in this case, it's not that easy.

All of science, was at one point "speculative". So it is fair to say that given the relative unknowns and less than solid conclusions - they have to at least ASK the questions and give possible reasons. The problem with our current social/political climate is that you have to CYA no matter what you put out there. That's one of the reasons I don't even get involved in the climate debate. Science has deemed this earth over 4 billion years old. Yet the data set to decide on a global theory is based on a time span that is extremely small in comparison. It could be happening (I believe the earth has warmed - but man made or not is my question). I would just like a few Milena more worth of data to be sure. That's all I'm saying.

With something like a little ice age - you cannot conclude whether it's happening or not. At least not yet. Does anyone remember the frantic New Ice Age movement of the 70's? Now insert a new movement but for opposite reasons just 20 years after that (and still today). And we wonder why this country has such a conspiracy theory issue.

I died laughing at the new show on TWC "Deadliest Space Weather" . Lolz those climatologist or whoever think the Earth will turn into Venus in millions of Years. If the Earth is billions of year old, why hasn't this happened yet? People are just ridiculous these days. Especially the ones with the abilities to predict millions of years into the future and doomsday dates. Dec 21 was a failure. Combination of terrible science and just throwing out a random date.
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.......your comment.........is starting..........starting to make sense to me........and where as I would normally agree with your perspective of "say it straight or just don't say it" - in this case, it's not that easy.

 

All of science, was at one point "speculative".  So it is fair to say that given the relative unknowns and less than solid conclusions - they have to at least ASK the questions and give possible reasons.  The problem with our current social/political climate is that you have to CYA no matter what you put out there.  That's one of the reasons I don't even get involved in the climate debate.  Science has deemed this earth over 4 billion years old.  Yet the data set to decide on a global theory is based on a time span that is extremely small in comparison.  It could be happening (I believe the earth has warmed - but man made or not is my question).  I would just like a few Milena more worth of data to be sure.  That's all I'm saying.

 

With something like a little ice age - you cannot conclude whether it's happening or not.  At least not yet.  Does anyone remember the frantic New Ice Age movement of the 70's?  Now insert a new movement but for opposite reasons just 20 years after that (and still today).  And we wonder why this country has such a conspiracy theory issue.

 

i-3n6wJcf-L.gif

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.......your comment.........is starting..........starting to make sense to me........and where as I would normally agree with your perspective of "say it straight or just don't say it" - in this case, it's not that easy.

 

All of science, was at one point "speculative".  So it is fair to say that given the relative unknowns and less than solid conclusions - they have to at least ASK the questions and give possible reasons.  The problem with our current social/political climate is that you have to CYA no matter what you put out there.  That's one of the reasons I don't even get involved in the climate debate.  Science has deemed this earth over 4 billion years old.  Yet the data set to decide on a global theory is based on a time span that is extremely small in comparison.  It could be happening (I believe the earth has warmed - but man made or not is my question).  I would just like a few Milena more worth of data to be sure.  That's all I'm saying.

 

With something like a little ice age - you cannot conclude whether it's happening or not.  At least not yet.  Does anyone remember the frantic New Ice Age movement of the 70's?  Now insert a new movement but for opposite reasons just 20 years after that (and still today).  And we wonder why this country has such a conspiracy theory issue.

Well said Bevo. I stumbled through a few pages of discussion this morning on the Climate Change forum particularly the Temp Fraud Expands. you need full body armor to be involved in a discussion in there. The passions on both side are so intense just reading it all I thought my head would explode. The underlying problem be it weather, politics, economics, polar shifting...is uncertainty. We want a crystal ball, a window to the future so we can prepare for what may come to sustain our own existence. It's basic human nature and with access to all the information via the internet, we help create our own hell just by being informed.

 

Ignorance is bliss.

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I died laughing at the new show on TWC "Deadliest Space Weather" . Lolz those climatologist or whoever think the Earth will turn into Venus in millions of Years. If the Earth is billions of year old, why hasn't this happened yet? People are just ridiculous these days. Especially the ones with the abilities to predict millions of years into the future and doomsday dates. Dec 21 was a failure. Combination of terrible science and just throwing out a random date.

 

I'm not sure the Mayans had a real solid scientific process for the end of days.  That was always a fanatical thing anyway - it was scientifically disproved many years ago.

 

i-3n6wJcf-L.gif

 

And right on queue - jburns does not disappoint.  I predict that by the year 2036, there will be a revolution to prepare for "Global, Meh?"

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I agree. It's still an aberration at this point, but hopefully, we an see a legitimate southward trend develop. I've felt like the potential has at least been there for the southern wave in the trough create a wave on the front. Would be nice to see us trend in that direction.

 

Agreed, I would be more excited had the GFS not shifted way north from the 0z/6z runs.  Whoever this targets is going to get a very nice snow storm as it's plenty cold and they will easily get 12:1+ ratio's I would guess.  I think this ends up jackpotting LGA/PHL, but we will see.

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Agreed, I would be more excited had the GFS not shifted way north from the 0z/6z runs.  Whoever this targets is going to get a very nice snow storm as it's plenty cold and they will easily get 12:1+ ratio's I would guess.  I think this ends up jackpotting LGA/PHL, but we will see.

 

The bad thing is it's coming from the north. We don't usually get good snow that way. Usually it's when we have a system from the Gulf and it bombs along the coast.

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Expect freezing drizzle or sleet at best in the higher elevations. This is a rainstorm for everyone in the SE.

 

Likely right but if I had the mindset I would never bother coming here. Weather would be boring to me.

 

NWS Blacksburg says a subtle change of track will have great impacts on precip types. They also went on to say it is trending to start as snow first for the mountains...and that was this morning before the better runs came in.

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Expect freezing drizzle or sleet at best in the higher elevations. This is a rainstorm for everyone in the SE.

 

Do you have to try to be such a buzzkill or does it just come naturally?

 

Come on, Nostradamus!  You speak with such finality and certainty, as if you can see the future.  Let the masses enjoy their fragile hopes.  We know it's not likely, but we still yearn for the possibility.  As such, we will continue to watch closely, even if we are most likely to be disappointed.

 

Oh, and FYI, freezing drizzle would be least likely to occur in the higher elevations due to the inability to sustain a warm nose at the typical atmospheric height (because they're already above that height).  Freezing drizzle would be much more likely at the lower elevations where the cold air could be trapped near the surface even though the upper levels are warm.  So, I have pretty low confidence in your forecast at this point.

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Do you have to try to be such a buzzkill or does it just come naturally?

Come on, Nostradamus! You speak with such finality and certainty, as if you can see the future. Let the masses enjoy their fragile hopes. We know it's not likely, but we still yearn for the possibility. As such, we will continue to watch closely, even if we are most likely to be disappointed.

Oh, and FYI, freezing drizzle would be least likely to occur in the higher elevations due to the inability to sustain a warm nose at the typical atmospheric height (because they're already above that height). Freezing drizzle would be much more likely at the lower elevations where the cold air could be trapped near the surface even though the upper levels are warm. So, I have pretty low confidence in your forecast at this point.

Lol I was just joking. But this is the worse way to possibly get snow for you folks. That low is gonna need to track lower than that.
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   Dr.No, Gives me .32 of liquid all in the form of snow Friday!

 

 

 

FRI 18Z 25-JAN  -4.0    -6.1    1018      70     100    0.07     553     539   
SAT 00Z 26-JAN  -2.0    -2.8    1011      89      45    0.27     545     536   

 

 

Do I expect it? Why of course not....

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Computer problem here.

Anyone ever have a problem with chrome opening up a new window instead of tab when you would click any type of link? I usually have to restart my laptop to fix this but it happens 2 or 3 times a day.

It might be a PEBKAC error...

As a software engineer, I felt obligated to say that! :)

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I am never looking at the NAM again.

The NAM got a big fat F for the last storm. It's unreliable with these overrunning, hard to predict type systems that might spit out a few tenths of an inch somewhere in W NC. So I'll be hugging the euro, GFS, and maybe the ruc when push comes to shove.

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Lol I was just joking. But this is the worse way to possibly get snow for you folks. That low is gonna need to track lower than that.

 

Your jokes tend to fall flat, though, and don't seem too funny.  Nor do they even seem like jokes.

 

Yes, clipper-type systems are not great for us here, but they have been known to over-perform.  I don't particularly care how I get the snow, though.  I'll take any I can get.

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The NAM got a big fat F for the last storm. It's unreliable with these overrunning, hard to predict type systems that might spit out a few tenths of an inch somewhere in W NC. So I'll be hugging the euro, GFS, and maybe the ruc when push comes to shove.

 

I disagree pretty strenuously with this grade.  The NAM was the only model consistently showing the snow shadow in the lee of the Apps, and it was right.  Sure, it over-predicted amounts in several different locations in NC (my back yard, for example), but it pretty much got the areas correct.  I give it a C for the event.

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I disagree pretty strenuously with this grade.  The NAM was the only model consistently showing the snow shadow in the lee of the Apps, and it was right.  Sure, it over-predicted amounts in several different locations in NC (my back yard, for example), but it pretty much got the areas correct.  I give it a C for the event.

 

You grade too hard maybe even an A for parts of the foothills. GFS gets the F for 6+ inches. 

 

Several short range models performed well.

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