Bevo Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 This is bull****. People always making up crap. Always using words like could or would to protect themselves. Either it happens or not. .......your comment.........is starting..........starting to make sense to me........and where as I would normally agree with your perspective of "say it straight or just don't say it" - in this case, it's not that easy. All of science, was at one point "speculative". So it is fair to say that given the relative unknowns and less than solid conclusions - they have to at least ASK the questions and give possible reasons. The problem with our current social/political climate is that you have to CYA no matter what you put out there. That's one of the reasons I don't even get involved in the climate debate. Science has deemed this earth over 4 billion years old. Yet the data set to decide on a global theory is based on a time span that is extremely small in comparison. It could be happening (I believe the earth has warmed - but man made or not is my question). I would just like a few Milena more worth of data to be sure. That's all I'm saying. With something like a little ice age - you cannot conclude whether it's happening or not. At least not yet. Does anyone remember the frantic New Ice Age movement of the 70's? Now insert a new movement but for opposite reasons just 20 years after that (and still today). And we wonder why this country has such a conspiracy theory issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 .......your comment.........is starting..........starting to make sense to me........and where as I would normally agree with your perspective of "say it straight or just don't say it" - in this case, it's not that easy. All of science, was at one point "speculative". So it is fair to say that given the relative unknowns and less than solid conclusions - they have to at least ASK the questions and give possible reasons. The problem with our current social/political climate is that you have to CYA no matter what you put out there. That's one of the reasons I don't even get involved in the climate debate. Science has deemed this earth over 4 billion years old. Yet the data set to decide on a global theory is based on a time span that is extremely small in comparison. It could be happening (I believe the earth has warmed - but man made or not is my question). I would just like a few Milena more worth of data to be sure. That's all I'm saying. With something like a little ice age - you cannot conclude whether it's happening or not. At least not yet. Does anyone remember the frantic New Ice Age movement of the 70's? Now insert a new movement but for opposite reasons just 20 years after that (and still today). And we wonder why this country has such a conspiracy theory issue. I died laughing at the new show on TWC "Deadliest Space Weather" . Lolz those climatologist or whoever think the Earth will turn into Venus in millions of Years. If the Earth is billions of year old, why hasn't this happened yet? People are just ridiculous these days. Especially the ones with the abilities to predict millions of years into the future and doomsday dates. Dec 21 was a failure. Combination of terrible science and just throwing out a random date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 .......your comment.........is starting..........starting to make sense to me........and where as I would normally agree with your perspective of "say it straight or just don't say it" - in this case, it's not that easy. All of science, was at one point "speculative". So it is fair to say that given the relative unknowns and less than solid conclusions - they have to at least ASK the questions and give possible reasons. The problem with our current social/political climate is that you have to CYA no matter what you put out there. That's one of the reasons I don't even get involved in the climate debate. Science has deemed this earth over 4 billion years old. Yet the data set to decide on a global theory is based on a time span that is extremely small in comparison. It could be happening (I believe the earth has warmed - but man made or not is my question). I would just like a few Milena more worth of data to be sure. That's all I'm saying. With something like a little ice age - you cannot conclude whether it's happening or not. At least not yet. Does anyone remember the frantic New Ice Age movement of the 70's? Now insert a new movement but for opposite reasons just 20 years after that (and still today). And we wonder why this country has such a conspiracy theory issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGaWxNerd Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 .......your comment.........is starting..........starting to make sense to me........and where as I would normally agree with your perspective of "say it straight or just don't say it" - in this case, it's not that easy. All of science, was at one point "speculative". So it is fair to say that given the relative unknowns and less than solid conclusions - they have to at least ASK the questions and give possible reasons. The problem with our current social/political climate is that you have to CYA no matter what you put out there. That's one of the reasons I don't even get involved in the climate debate. Science has deemed this earth over 4 billion years old. Yet the data set to decide on a global theory is based on a time span that is extremely small in comparison. It could be happening (I believe the earth has warmed - but man made or not is my question). I would just like a few Milena more worth of data to be sure. That's all I'm saying. With something like a little ice age - you cannot conclude whether it's happening or not. At least not yet. Does anyone remember the frantic New Ice Age movement of the 70's? Now insert a new movement but for opposite reasons just 20 years after that (and still today). And we wonder why this country has such a conspiracy theory issue. Well said Bevo. I stumbled through a few pages of discussion this morning on the Climate Change forum particularly the Temp Fraud Expands. you need full body armor to be involved in a discussion in there. The passions on both side are so intense just reading it all I thought my head would explode. The underlying problem be it weather, politics, economics, polar shifting...is uncertainty. We want a crystal ball, a window to the future so we can prepare for what may come to sustain our own existence. It's basic human nature and with access to all the information via the internet, we help create our own hell just by being informed. Ignorance is bliss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I died laughing at the new show on TWC "Deadliest Space Weather" . Lolz those climatologist or whoever think the Earth will turn into Venus in millions of Years. If the Earth is billions of year old, why hasn't this happened yet? People are just ridiculous these days. Especially the ones with the abilities to predict millions of years into the future and doomsday dates. Dec 21 was a failure. Combination of terrible science and just throwing out a random date. I'm not sure the Mayans had a real solid scientific process for the end of days. That was always a fanatical thing anyway - it was scientifically disproved many years ago. And right on queue - jburns does not disappoint. I predict that by the year 2036, there will be a revolution to prepare for "Global, Meh?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Any storm that hits the US will now be due to global warming lolz. Sandy on Wikipedia is the 1st storm on there to ever have global warming as one of the categories. http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I agree. It's still an aberration at this point, but hopefully, we an see a legitimate southward trend develop. I've felt like the potential has at least been there for the southern wave in the trough create a wave on the front. Would be nice to see us trend in that direction. Agreed, I would be more excited had the GFS not shifted way north from the 0z/6z runs. Whoever this targets is going to get a very nice snow storm as it's plenty cold and they will easily get 12:1+ ratio's I would guess. I think this ends up jackpotting LGA/PHL, but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Agreed, I would be more excited had the GFS not shifted way north from the 0z/6z runs. Whoever this targets is going to get a very nice snow storm as it's plenty cold and they will easily get 12:1+ ratio's I would guess. I think this ends up jackpotting LGA/PHL, but we will see. The bad thing is it's coming from the north. We don't usually get good snow that way. Usually it's when we have a system from the Gulf and it bombs along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 If a threat can pop up 4 days out I don't see how one can go ahead and write off Feb. into early March. Nobody here really knows. Of course we can take the conservative route and say winter is over and likely be right. But we really don't know for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 This is a thread starter within 24 hours if the 0z is a go. Will be a 3 day storm threat tracking. Probably to good to be true. Who is starting it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Sometimes these threats that pop up within 2 or 3 days end up being pretty good and better than ones we follow from 7 to 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 This is a thread starter within 24 hours if the 0z is a go. Will be a 3 day storm threat tracking. Probably to good to be true. Who is starting it? Expect freezing drizzle or sleet at best in the higher elevations. This is a rainstorm for everyone in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 Expect freezing drizzle or sleet at best in the higher elevations. This is a rainstorm for everyone in the SE. Likely right but if I had the mindset I would never bother coming here. Weather would be boring to me. NWS Blacksburg says a subtle change of track will have great impacts on precip types. They also went on to say it is trending to start as snow first for the mountains...and that was this morning before the better runs came in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Expect freezing drizzle or sleet at best in the higher elevations. This is a rainstorm for everyone in the SE. Do you have to try to be such a buzzkill or does it just come naturally? Come on, Nostradamus! You speak with such finality and certainty, as if you can see the future. Let the masses enjoy their fragile hopes. We know it's not likely, but we still yearn for the possibility. As such, we will continue to watch closely, even if we are most likely to be disappointed. Oh, and FYI, freezing drizzle would be least likely to occur in the higher elevations due to the inability to sustain a warm nose at the typical atmospheric height (because they're already above that height). Freezing drizzle would be much more likely at the lower elevations where the cold air could be trapped near the surface even though the upper levels are warm. So, I have pretty low confidence in your forecast at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I guess 2 to 3 inches of snow would be fine. More of what we had last week. But I really want a good snow of 6 inches or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Wxrisk.com *** ALERT *** 12Z EURO ENSEMBLE goes WOOF .. and has has come out... and STRONGLY support the more SOUTHERN track of the JAN 24-25 LOW trough KY and into NC ... In Fact the Euro ensemble mean is a bit snowier than the operational or REGULAR euro model So, we're probably not going to see anything now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 So, we're probably not going to see anything now. USE EXTREME CAUTION from his posts. He had Frosty getting 9-12 inches on his final call map. DT lacks geography and common sense. I agree with whoever said to look at the NAM in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 His barking seems to be a lot bigger than his bite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Do you have to try to be such a buzzkill or does it just come naturally? Come on, Nostradamus! You speak with such finality and certainty, as if you can see the future. Let the masses enjoy their fragile hopes. We know it's not likely, but we still yearn for the possibility. As such, we will continue to watch closely, even if we are most likely to be disappointed. Oh, and FYI, freezing drizzle would be least likely to occur in the higher elevations due to the inability to sustain a warm nose at the typical atmospheric height (because they're already above that height). Freezing drizzle would be much more likely at the lower elevations where the cold air could be trapped near the surface even though the upper levels are warm. So, I have pretty low confidence in your forecast at this point. Lol I was just joking. But this is the worse way to possibly get snow for you folks. That low is gonna need to track lower than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 USE EXTREME CAUTION from his posts. He had Frosty getting 9-12 inches on his final call map. DT lacks geography and common sense. I agree with whoever said to look at the NAM in the coming days. I am never looking at the NAM again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Dr.No, Gives me .32 of liquid all in the form of snow Friday! FRI 18Z 25-JAN -4.0 -6.1 1018 70 100 0.07 553 539 SAT 00Z 26-JAN -2.0 -2.8 1011 89 45 0.27 545 536 Do I expect it? Why of course not.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 Computer problem here. Anyone ever have a problem with chrome opening up a new window instead of tab when you would click any type of link? I usually have to restart my laptop to fix this but it happens 2 or 3 times a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Friday Night Rain and snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Did not work out with 100%, another wait and see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JWXnc Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Computer problem here. Anyone ever have a problem with chrome opening up a new window instead of tab when you would click any type of link? I usually have to restart my laptop to fix this but it happens 2 or 3 times a day. It might be a PEBKAC error... As a software engineer, I felt obligated to say that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 So, we're probably not going to see anything now. The ENS agreed with the OP which is good, we are on the southern edge of what models been showing for an event, I would think this trends more north, so I wouldn't get your hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I am never looking at the NAM again. The NAM got a big fat F for the last storm. It's unreliable with these overrunning, hard to predict type systems that might spit out a few tenths of an inch somewhere in W NC. So I'll be hugging the euro, GFS, and maybe the ruc when push comes to shove. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Lol I was just joking. But this is the worse way to possibly get snow for you folks. That low is gonna need to track lower than that. Your jokes tend to fall flat, though, and don't seem too funny. Nor do they even seem like jokes. Yes, clipper-type systems are not great for us here, but they have been known to over-perform. I don't particularly care how I get the snow, though. I'll take any I can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 I also dropped my Ipod Touch in the toilet earlier when the EURO came out. Now the screen/light will not turn on. I made sure it was dry. Sound works when I hit a button or two pretty sure the light is just not working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 The NAM got a big fat F for the last storm. It's unreliable with these overrunning, hard to predict type systems that might spit out a few tenths of an inch somewhere in W NC. So I'll be hugging the euro, GFS, and maybe the ruc when push comes to shove. I disagree pretty strenuously with this grade. The NAM was the only model consistently showing the snow shadow in the lee of the Apps, and it was right. Sure, it over-predicted amounts in several different locations in NC (my back yard, for example), but it pretty much got the areas correct. I give it a C for the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 I disagree pretty strenuously with this grade. The NAM was the only model consistently showing the snow shadow in the lee of the Apps, and it was right. Sure, it over-predicted amounts in several different locations in NC (my back yard, for example), but it pretty much got the areas correct. I give it a C for the event. You grade too hard maybe even an A for parts of the foothills. GFS gets the F for 6+ inches. Several short range models performed well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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