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January Banter


WilkesboroDude

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It's not that serious. Its just weather lol. Move up north if you want snow.

shouldn't have to move up north, lived here for 60 years and have had snow every year to speak of except last year and it looks like maybe this year.  living in the mtns. of nc there should be snow every year.  we've been know for four seasons but I think we're going to three seasons, spring summer fall

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Interesting facts for Asheville.  The last measurable snow at AVL (other than a trace) was 0.4 inches on January 13, 2011.  There are other parts of the county that may have gotten more from a NW flow event, but those have been the only snowmakers around here in almost two years.

tell me about it, its terrible, maybe things will turn around,  I have a feeling for around the 20-23 of Jan.  Just a hunch.

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tell me about it, its terrible, maybe things will turn around,  I have a feeling for around the 20-23 of Jan.  Just a hunch.

 

Not surprisingly, this is the longest stretch without measurable snow in the history of records at AVL.  Also, I signed up on January 9, 2011, a day before our last big storm which was on the 10th.  Coincidence?

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Well, today is the 3rd...the day I said we'd have a wide spread zrain storm in Ga.  My hopes for a new career are in ashes.  Following my spectacular win in the pick the first tropical storm and where it will form thread, my confidence was high, my path was set, my arms ready to hold the awards, my ears the adulation...yet now, I'm doomed once more to oblivion.  Doomed to the trash heap of failed storm predictors.  My rise was to be meteoric, yet in failure I crashed without as much as a sputter.  Weather seer...thy name be ruination.  I am destitute....

 

 

 

Ok...... I will go out on a limb and predict wide spread ip/sn for the nGa area, from Macon north on Feb 3rd.  Take it to the bank!!!

 

You experience may vary.  The sponsor of this prediction is not resposible in anyway for similarities, real or imagined to this prediction.  Prediction subject to change.without warning.  All predictions are non binding!  Said predictor wlll be held harmless in all instances of litigation.  Prediction is just for fun, if you take it to heart, you need to find other outlets!!  That is all.

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It looks like this winter overall will suck, but all we need is the timing right for about a week and maybe we can cash in on one huge storm. This is from the thread on tidbits from the web.

 

 

Here is an awesome writeup on the Carolina Crusher 2000. Notice the first chart showing the Positive NAo and negative PNA throughout that January, then around the 18th they flipped temporarily for about 10 days and produced one of the greatest 8 day stretches of winter weather in North Carolina history. Also a great lesson on why not to hinge your forecast just on models but use them as tools. http://www.weatherbe...tter-1-4-2012-d

 

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Posting hint....notice my post is mostly blather, but still stands, while yours was removed....because having learned from Joe, the master, I put some model related words in with my post, thus making it acceptable.

  i.e.  .... say you are posting in the Obs thread, and you say,  "My hemoroids are sure hurting this morning, and I've got to cut the grass."  This post will be moved.  But if you simply add,  " I guess the fact that it is 43, and raining doesn't help", then you are fine!  T

 

carl-sagan-youre-awesome_zps7025c936.gif

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Well, today is the 3rd...the day I said we'd have a wide spread zrain storm in Ga.  My hopes for a new career are in ashes.  Following my spectacular win in the pick the first tropical storm and where it will form thread, my confidence was high, my path was set, my arms ready to hold the awards, my ears the adulation...yet now, I'm doomed once more to oblivion.  Doomed to the trash heap of failed storm predictors.  My rise was to be meteoric, yet in failure I crashed without as much as a sputter.  Weather seer...thy name be ruination.  I am destitute....

 

 

 

Ok...... I will go out on a limb and predict wide spread ip/sn for the nGa area, from Macon north on Feb 3rd.  Take it to the bank!!!

I too bought into the 3rd being a lovely event for the ATL area, so much so that I posted that big fat lie on my FB like it was written in stone. Thank goodness my FB friends never go back and look at my weather posts and hold me to the fire when I am wrong.

You experience may vary.  The sponsor of this prediction is not resposible in anyway for similarities, real or imagined to this prediction.  Prediction subject to change.without warning.  All predictions are non binding!  Said predictor wlll be held harmless in all instances of litigation.  Prediction is just for fun, if you take it to heart, you need to find other outlets!!  That is all.

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Good to see you Steve...still racing?

 

Has anyone seen WeatherNC?? He hasn't been on since Thanksgiving....Miss his Moderating! No offense Buckeye but loved it when hioticem or Lookout got on somebody!!

 

Thanks! I'm still here!

Racing is over for the season, the last event was the first week of December and we'll get started back in February. Here's a video of one of my runs: 

 

I let Youtube fix the video (which i won't do again), you'll notice how I'm in a time warp and it makes the cones lean!

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Have we ever had severe cold outbreaks with a lack of a -NAO in the SE? Sure the PNA and AO COULD be favorable. Snowcover will also be substantially lower from this warm up so you would expect it to moderate by the time it reaches the SE. Where is everyone getting this cold from for mid-late JAN? I'm most likely missing another important factor or two.

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Thanks! I'm still here!

Racing is over for the season, the last event was the first week of December and we'll get started back in February. Here's a video of one of my runs: 

 

I let Youtube fix the video (which i won't do again), you'll notice how I'm in a time warp and it makes the cones lean!

 

Well, that's not the nose of a Lamborghini, so I guess I have  to keep calling you Jeep Boy, lol.  Nice run!!   I thought your recent absence was you rounding up funding for a new Italian ride :) T

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Have we ever had severe cold outbreaks with a lack of a -NAO in the SE? Sure the PNA and AO COULD be favorable. Snowcover will also be substantially lower from this warm up so you would expect it to moderate by the time it reaches the SE. Where is everyone getting this cold from for mid-late JAN? I'm most likely missing another important factor or two.

The snow cover northward and westward shouldn't be affected that terribly. It's not like this "warm up" is some dramatic heat wave.

As far as the late January cold - I suspect it's coming from the progged PNA spike and cold features on the GFS, and Euro (somewhat). Also, apparently the weeklies read contrary to warmth today - but I think they were for weeks 3 & 4. Then there is the Strat warming, etc...

My personal opinion is that until the flow slows down, I'm supicious of anything that far out regardless of model/weekly consensus.

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The snow cover northward and westward shouldn't be affected that terribly. It's not like this "warm up" is some dramatic heat wave.

As far as the late January cold - I suspect it's coming from the progged PNA spike and cold features on the GFS, and Euro (somewhat). Also, apparently the weeklies read contrary to warmth today - but I think they were for weeks 3 & 4. Then there is the Strat warming, etc...

My personal opinion is that until the flow slows down, I'm supicious of anything that far out regardless of model/weekly consensus.

 

 

Personally and this probably pure weenism I like the look the GFS has had for the Carolinas at least with the cold coming down then receding. I've always believed that you get better chances this way at a big storm. As the pattern starts to change is when you get the most instability in the atmosphere. Give me some small to medium changes and hopefully it creates something big out of the chaos. 

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Personally and this probably pure weenism I like the look the GFS has had for the Carolinas at least with the cold coming down then receding. I've always believed that you get better chances this way at a big storm. As the pattern starts to change is when you get the most instability in the atmosphere. Give me some small to medium changes and hopefully it creates something big out of the chaos. 

 

Don't get me wrong, I really like that look as well.  The question to me is whether or not that and other model looks are conclusions of confusion because of the difficulty stemming from the PAC (as has seemed to be the case so far).

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