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January Banter


WilkesboroDude

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Weather pisses me off. I would never pursue a career in that.

It also gets boring even if we get everything we want. It is weather.

People take it to serious. If you tell them something they don't like they'll try to jump on you. Then I get a threat of being 5 posted by another member. We should just abandon the very accurate Euro and GFS and use the Nogaps and JMA for now on. The models don't show something you like, you ignore them and then go find a model that is showing what you like and hug it and make up facts saying it got this and that right. This happened with Winter Storm Iago. Folks only went by the NAM accumulations when you know damn well the GFS got the locations of the totals right. European model was rarely mentioned.
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People take it to serious. If you tell them something they don't like they'll try to jump on you. Then I get a threat of being 5 posted by another member. We should just abandon the very accurate Euro and GFS and use the Nogaps and JMA for now on. The models don't show something you like, you ignore them and then go find a model that is showing what you like and hug it and make up facts saying it got this and that right. This happened with Winter Storm Iago. Folks only went by the NAM accumulations when you know damn well the GFS got the locations of the totals right. European model was rarely mentioned.

Gfs had a lot at 9 inches for several days so who did it get right. I love both of your red tags. Now that the sky is healing we will be fine. The nam is the model that showed the storm while others lost it.

I dont think anybody actually thought they would get what models were showing. The two of you need to start your own forecasting business

You guys are the greatest

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Gfs had a lot at 9 inches for several days so who did it get right. I love both of your red tags. Now that the sky is healing we will be fine. The nam is the model that showed the storm while others lost it.

I dont think anybody actually thought they would get what models were showing. The two of you need to start your own forecasting business

You guys are the greatest

Umm you refer to two people but you only quote me? Who is the other "red tag" you are talking about?
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Maybe true but I think it all comes in the way comments are posted. I know it is hard to read between the lines on a message board thread to see the persons emotions behind it. <- I assume this is why QC stated you need a 5 post day. But people will always find the model that is showing what they want it to show. I know you have only been around amwx for a little under 2 years, but this is what most do and have done. It has gotten better but then years ago when the old group where all new, it was the same. I have no problem with it because for the most part these good folks around here are nto forecasting for a large city. Therefore, they can say what ever they want. They can have the largest weenie and not give a #uck what happens. That is the magic of the non-met, no accountability. by the way, the NAM showed some accum for a few runs for my area and then began to draw it back on the last 3 runs before the system hit.

 

 

 

People take it to serious. If you tell them something they don't like they'll try to jump on you. Then I get a threat of being 5 posted by another member. We should just abandon the very accurate Euro and GFS and use the Nogaps and JMA for now on. The models don't show something you like, you ignore them and then go find a model that is showing what you like and hug it and make up facts saying it got this and that right. This happened with Winter Storm Iago. Folks only went by the NAM accumulations when you know damn well the GFS got the locations of the totals right. European model was rarely mentioned.

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The NAM seems to get bashed a lot until it trends colder and snowier.

In a lot of respects, and man I really, REALLY hate to do this, but I have to agree with Brick. The models don't do a very good job with winter weather around here unless the setup is perfect. Things are just too precarious in this area. It is a very hard job being a met around here and it takes a lot of experience to put with the model interpretation.

Most of the rest of us are just weenies hoping for the model with the best snow accum map will verify.

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The NAM seems to get bashed a lot until it trends colder and snowier.

Most of the rest of us are just weenies hoping for the model with the best snow accum map will verify.

Yep if the NAM was showing 2-4 inches and GFS had a 6-12 then everyone would go with the GFS. Most would go with it anyway as it's the 2nd best performing model.
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The NAM seems to get bashed a lot until it trends colder and snowier.

In a lot of respects, and man I really, REALLY hate to do this, but I have to agree with Brick. The models don't do a very good job with winter weather around here unless the setup is perfect. Things are just too precarious in this area. It is a very hard job being a met around here and it takes a lot of experience to put with the model interpretation.

Most of the rest of us are just weenies hoping for the model with the best snow accum map will verify.

 

Most of the time, the models (especially the high resolution ones), have a good handle on a storm that is within 18hrs.....not this time. It just goes to show you that things can trend better or worse just before verification time. We remember the ones that failed just before or during the storm, but there are also ones that surprised us right at game time. It's those memories that keep me watching a storm until I know that there is no possible way for it to trend in our favor. I enjoy tracking storms from days out, but in reality, I don't believe those clown maps until it is apparent on radar that i am getting what's being modeled.That way the let-down is not as bad. I picked up almost an inch from this last event and there is still snow in the shady areas of my yard.... but it was, by far, less than what was modeled just 24hrs out. I take two thing away from this past event. 1) the final solution of a modeled storm might not be shown until right at game-time, and 2) never count yourself out of the game until you have no chance of seeing winter precip.

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Most of the time, the models (especially the high resolution ones), have a good handle on a storm that is within 18hrs.....not this time. It just goes to show you that things can trend better or worse just before verification time. We remember the ones that failed just before or during the storm, but there are also ones that surprised us right at game time. It's those memories that keep me watching a storm until I know that there is no possible way for it to trend in our favor. I enjoy tracking storms from days out, but in reality, I don't believe those clown maps until it is apparent on radar that i am getting what's being modeled.That way the let-down is not as bad. I picked up almost an inch from this last event and there is still snow in the shady areas of my yard.... but it was, by far, less than what was modeled just 24hrs out. I take two thing away from this past event. 1) the final solution of a modeled storm might not be shown until right at game-time, and 2) never count yourself out of the game until you have no chance of seing winter precip.

Yeah, usually within 18 hrs, they have the major details accurate, but in so many of our winter events, especially here in the piedmont, all it takes are very small variations in smaller scale variables to determine the difference between a few flakes and 6 inches. Those are the kinds of things that don't often become apparent until game time.

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People take it to serious. If you tell them something they don't like they'll try to jump on you. Then I get a threat of being 5 posted by another member. We should just abandon the very accurate Euro and GFS and use the Nogaps and JMA for now on. The models don't show something you like, you ignore them and then go find a model that is showing what you like and hug it and make up facts saying it got this and that right. This happened with Winter Storm Iago. Folks only went by the NAM accumulations when you know damn well the GFS got the locations of the totals right. European model was rarely mentioned.

 

That is simply not true...at all. The Euro, SREF and GFS TRENDED towards the NAM. That's right they TRENDED towards the NAM. They did not show the exact thing the NAM did but they were going that way so you have to assume the NAM has the hot hand. Which it did. It was showing the solution long before the GFS and NAM were. In fact the GFS until about 60 hours didn't even have the cutoff while the NAM did. Pretty much the same thing with the Euro. No one was only picking the NAM, again though when every model trends toward the NAM it's only scientific to trust the NAM. This storm was always an all or nothing storm, yes the majority on this board will hope for the best. Nothing wrong with that IMO. I think the moral of this story is you should read more and post less.

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That is simply not true...at all. The Euro, SREF and GFS TRENDED towards the NAM. That's right they TRENDED towards the NAM. They did not show the exact thing the NAM did but they were going that way so you have to assume the NAM has the hot hand. Which it did. It was showing the solution long before the GFS and NAM were. In fact the GFS until about 60 hours didn't even have the cutoff while the NAM did. Pretty much the same thing with the Euro. No one was only picking the NAM, again though when every model trends toward the NAM it's only scientific to trust the NAM. This storm was always an all or nothing storm, yes the majority on this board will hope for the best. Nothing wrong with that IMO. I think the moral of this story is you should read more and post less.

:lmao: and how much snow did you see? Goose egg correct? Those totals you were spitting out from the NAM for CLT didn't come to par. The day before the event the GFS and NAM were 100 miles apart with the axis of the heaviest snow. Sure it trended towards the NAM 60 hours before the event. This event busting only seemed to have made things worse. And buddy I read everything in the discussion forum. Maybe you should take your own advice. Yeah I'm about to stop posting as I surely don't want to get on another posting limit.
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:lmao: and how much snow did you see? Goose egg correct? Those totals you were spitting out from the NAM for CLT didn't come to par. The day before the event the GFS and NAM were 100 miles apart with the axis of the heaviest snow. Sure it trended towards the NAM 60 hours before the event. This event busting only seemed to have made things worse. And buddy I read everything in the discussion forum. Maybe you should take your own advice. Yeah I'm about to stop posting as I surely don't want to get on another posting limit.

 

It doesn't matter how much snow I ended up with. That's a moot point. You said people were hugging one model and I gave you the reason as to why folks would trust that model more and SHOULD have trusted that model more.

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It doesn't matter how much snow I ended up with. That's a moot point. You said people were hugging one model and I gave you the reason as to why folks would trust that model more and SHOULD have trusted that model more.

Yes I know exactly what you mean. Since everything had trended towards the NAM, it would make since to use the NAM to make a forecast, the GFS totals the day before seemed more realistic in comparison to the NAM which had crazy totals.

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The Hi-res NAM did really well with this event.  Here's 18Z from Thursday afternoon.  Pretty much spot on with the low accumulations east of the mountain and nothing in the immediate lee of the Apps.

 

jm0dB3L.png

 

Here's the non-hi-res 12Z NAM from Thursday.  While obviously overdoing the eastern amounts, it did have the snow shadow.

 

38SiOBy.png

 

Look, even HPC was fooled by this event.  I don't think we can hold any one forecaster or model hostage for making a busted forecast.  Everything looked to be good to go for a decent storm.  Remember this graphic from Thursday morning:

 

d0EE6Wq.png

 

I don't think anyone can rightfully claim that the GFS was all over this event, either.  Here's the 06Z predicted snowfall from Thursday morning.  Really way wrong on the amounts here.  No foothills snow shadow either.  The NAM at least had that feature all along.

 

MvCsHol.png

 

 

 

 

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The Hi-res NAM did really well with this event.  Here's 18Z from Thursday afternoon.  Pretty much spot on with the low accumulations east of the mountain and nothing in the immediate lee of the Apps.

 

jm0dB3L.png

 

Here's the non-hi-res 12Z NAM from Thursday.  While obviously overdoing the eastern amounts, it did have the snow shadow.

 

38SiOBy.png

 

Look, even HPC was fooled by this event.  I don't think we can hold any one forecaster or model hostage for making a busted forecast.  Everything looked to be good to go for a decent storm.  Remember this graphic from Thursday morning:

 

d0EE6Wq.png

 

I don't think anyone can rightfully claim that the GFS was all over this event, either.  Here's the 06Z predicted snowfall from Thursday morning.  Really way wrong on the amounts here.  No foothills snow shadow either.  The NAM at least had that feature all along.

 

MvCsHol.png

And I just happen to live in the shadow! :bag:  lol

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calculus1, on 19 Jan 2013 - 10:42, said:snapback.png

The Hi-res NAM did really well with this event.  Here's 18Z from Thursday afternoon.  Pretty much spot on with the low accumulations east of the mountain and nothing in the immediate lee of the Apps.

 

I think the HRRR nailed it too and some of the other short range models. 

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Lol. As a life long falcons fan there are a few names or words that will make you sick to your stomach,#1-Eugene Robinsin,#2-1/4/81 allowing Dallas to come back and win that playoff game when we were the best team in the league that year, #3 3rd and 16 (Keith Brooking allowing the 1st down during the 08 playoff game to Arizona, #4 Bobby Petrino, #5 anything New Orleans! Thank God I didn't have to add Russel Wilson to that list last week. When Seattle punched in that final score last Sunday the only thing that was going thru my mind was NO NO NO not again, and where does this fit into my worst memories of all time with this team. Not for one second did I even think about the next 31 seconds. I left my seat and walked towards the stairs to head on down.... Something made me turn around and get back to my seat just in time to see #88 make that huge catch! There is nothing else in the world that can generate that type of emotional explosion by thousands of people at the same time! Hugging & high fiveing complete and total strangers like they were family! Thats what Sport is all about! I told my fiancé when I got home that Sunday this was the 2nd greatest day of my life (of course meeting her was number 1) but she knew I was blowing smoke at her. I think she falls in a tight 3rd! I mean come on man who could forget the exciment of 1998 and Mort Anderson kicking us to the Super Bowl! Yup its decided meeting my baby is a solid 3rd! Lol Thankfully she doesn't come here to read about weather.

Good story!!  I can't believe you got up to leave.  After Ryan at Chicago?  After 6 previous last few minute drives this year?  What were you thinking :)  And I like the story line now.  Hardly anyone gives them a chance to beat San Fran, even at home.  Just like the days leading up to the Minn. game.

  For me, the Super Bowl chance erased the Dallas memories, and many others, and without Robinson, I figure we'd have not gotten to meet Denver.  I just think having had the experience means so much to teams like Denver, knowing the hype/hysteria, and staying way away from the downtown party girls.  That's good coaching.  And I think Smitty has that kind of look ahead thinking.

 To me, one of the top games is still the all field goal Monday night game against La, lol.  But then I love good defense.  I'd rather see a 7 to 6 game than a 42 to 35 game any day of the week.  It's why I don't much like college ball anymore, and the pros are getting almost as bad.  The 129 points allowed 1977 defense is one of my fondest memories.  If they just had had as good an offense :) 

 I hate that Babineaux and Abraham are banged up.  I wish they had Claude Humphery still, lol.  And Kuykendal.  They'll need some pass rush.  Tony

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Lol everyone jumping on mp184qcr just because he said it will be rain. Boy does that sound familiar.

 

They have every right. It is a discussion thread, not a "it will be rain I don't want to hear about possible trends etc."

 

NWS has interest. 

 

 

A positive tilt shortwave will dig southeast through the Midwest Thursday night and then sharpen up west of the mountains through Friday. An associated surface low will develop over the Southern Plains ahead of this feature Thursday and start to generate light upglide and upslope precipitation in the SW mountains Thursday evening. Given the dry profiles in place...it will be very difficult to pin down ptypes at this point as the deeper moisture spread in later Thursday night. All the models have some degree of warm nosing...but the wet bulbs may lag. Will feature a brief transition of wintry ptypes across the NC mountains with mainly a light freezing rain threat toward daybreak. The best warm advection lift and moisture will transit the region late Thursday night through Friday...but forcing under the upper low will likely continue through at least Friday night as thicknesses plunge again with frontal passage. The GFS becomes much more progessive with the main upper trough axis into Sat...while the ecm remains to the west. Northwest upslope flow snow showers look like a good bet in the mountains...but it will be interesting to see how quickly the moisture can clear the Piedmont before profiles cool down into the weekend. Stay tuned. 
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