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January Banter


WilkesboroDude

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The nail in the coffin for north ga was likely the QPF. Soundings said no so we needed strong dynamics with high QPF amounts to cool the column from the top down. My QPF after 5pm was less than .10" which just won't get it done. I think the dry slot ruined the whole thing as it took a while for the UVV's to regenerate the precip across north ga. By then it was too late as everything was done imby by 8pm.

 

.10 needs to fall in 15-30min with nice velocities to fix some of the soundings you had posted, lol.

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I just found out Rosamund Pike was in World's End.  Makes it even better.  I think I'd have a chance with her!  She likes older men that are characters..or, was that.. with character   ..hmmmm....oh, well, looking better all the time.  Paul's coming on again in a few minutes.  Gonna go laugh myself to sleep, lol. 

 

I cannot wait for this one.  It should be as brilliant as SOTD and Hot Fuzz.

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By the way, was that Carolina Crusher in Jan 2000 an ULL system with dynaimc cooling? Or was it another kind of system?

 

If I'm not mistaken it was a Miller A nor'easter.  I'm not sure if there was a high to the north but a storm that big there was some dynamic cooling going on.  There is a big write up on it  that might tell the answer.

 

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/

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Accuweather is showing a rain/snow/ice mix for Cary, NC on February 5 - 6.  I'm soooo excited (not).

 

I'm sure the models are right this time. Whatever. They aren't even right within 24 hours most of the time when it comes to wintry weather around here. The only thing the models are good for in regards to wintry weather around here is showing a potential. Whatever actually happens is just a guess. Now I know why Fishel always forecasts so low and changes things as the storm gets going. A couple of folks were really sounding the alarm about this and busted big time as usual.

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You guys nailed it..forget that blue line!! I'd say parts of Tenn. are long over due more so than us in SC. The 925 warm bubble killed the upstate once again but for me was no surprise..I think it did catch some of our Lee side brothers in NC off guard esp after they put the whole state in a warning. Long range does not look bad to me...I don't want the brutal cold because I guarantee it will be dry..give me cold shots and gulf lows with some cad!!

 

You are right. Bitter cold around here usually just means cold and dry. What we need is a monster coming up from the Gulf with temps right around 28 degrees. It seems that is the only way we get decent snow here lately. Who cares about brutal cold with no snow? Your power bill goes up and you still have to go out in it. At least with snow there is a chance it will close things down for a day and you can stay home with the kids and have fun.

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I'm sure the models are right this time. Whatever. They aren't even right within 24 hours most of the time when it comes to wintry weather around here. The only thing the models are good for in regards to wintry weather around here is showing a potential. Whatever actually happens is just a guess. Now I know why Fishel always forecasts so low and changes things as the storm gets going. A couple of folks were really sounding the alarm about this and busted big time as usual.

 

So then, you could do what they do?  What's that?  No? 

 

Anyone can forecast low and the "adjust on the fly".  Hell - you may even be able to.  It is also potentially dangerous.

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You are right. Bitter cold around here usually just means cold and dry. What we need is a monster coming up from the Gulf with temps right around 28 degrees. It seems that is the only way we get decent snow here lately. Who cares about brutal cold with no snow? Your power bill goes up and you still have to go out in it. At least with snow there is a chance it will close things down for a day and you can stay home with the kids and have fun.

 

I think it will dry out for at least 1 week if not 2 weeks. The skies need to heal here.

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You are right. Bitter cold around here usually just means cold and dry. What we need is a monster coming up from the Gulf with temps right around 28 degrees. It seems that is the only way we get decent snow here lately. Who cares about brutal cold with no snow? Your power bill goes up and you still have to go out in it. At least with snow there is a chance it will close things down for a day and you can stay home with the kids and have fun.

 

You keep asking this same dumb*** question, even after having been told by many that a lot of us actually DO care about it. 

 

"Who cares about Brick's millionth post stating the same thing?" is a better one to ask.

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Ask anyone who has lived around here for a while and watches WRAL if that isn't the truth.

 

If what isn't true?  I have no problem believing Fishel may forecast that way.  I wouldn't know - I don't know him at all.  My point is that if that is how he forecasts snow, it is bush league.  ANYONE can do that. 

 

Edit***

 

All I'm saying Brick, is that your reasons never make sense.  I believe Fishel is a Met.  Which is why I don't like your post claiming that he does it the right way by going low and raising during the event. That does not make anyone a Met.  It makes them a cynical ***hole.  That sounds more like you.  I don't believe Fishel would forecast that way, regardless of how it may seem to you.

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I think it will dry out for at least 1 week if not 2 weeks. The skies need to heal here.

 

What?!?!

 

And, I thought I was talking psychological mumbo-jumbo yesterday.

 

I think TWC named this storm appropriately.  Iago talked a good talk, but was totally deceiving everyone behind the scenes.  TWC jinxed us by naming the storm after one of the most famous literary smooth-talking deceivers.

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If what isn't true?  I have no problem believing Fishel may forecast that way.  I wouldn't know - I don't know him at all.  My point is that if that is how he forecasts snow, it is bush league.  ANYONE can do that. 

 

I agree. There were a couple of others talking about that last night. I don't think it used to be that way, but after getting burned a few times and seeing how hard it is to project wintry events down here, I think he plays it ultra safe now. It's probably that way for the other local TV mets in Raleigh/Durham, too. I guess it is smart, though, because you really can't believe the models and they are wrong most of the time with snow around here.

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If what isn't true? I have no problem believing Fishel may forecast that way. I wouldn't know - I don't know him at all. My point is that if that is how he forecasts snow, it is bush league. ANYONE can do that.

You're wasting your time.

I know Greg and I will tell you that he is going to put out a prudent forecast and then adjust as needed. He's conservative, when it comes to snow around here, and he should be.

You don't go hog wild because the NAM shows thundersnow for 24 straight hours. Only people who just want to gripe can't understand this.

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You're wasting your time.

I know Greg and I will tell you that he is going to put out a prudent forecast and then adjust as needed. He's conservative, when it comes to snow around here, and he should be.

You don't go hog wild because the NAM shows thundersnow for 24 straight hours. Only people who just want to gripe can't understand this.

 

CR - see my edit on that last post - just so we're all clear as to where I'm coming from.

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You're wasting your time.

I know Greg and I will tell you that he is going to put out a prudent forecast and then adjust as needed. He's conservative, when it comes to snow around here, and he should be.

You don't go hog wild because the NAM shows thundersnow for 24 straight hours. Only people who just want to gripe can't understand this.

 

I don't remember it being like that when I was a kid, though. I think it has changed over time. Of course, it seems like we used to get more wintry events in the 80s when I was a kid. I think he got burned some in the 90s and maybe that is when he started going very conservative. Now it seems we either get one huge event each winter or nothing at all. Well, I guess last night was something, but really not much for most folks. Now I would not be surprised if that is all we get this winter. I just recall we used to get about three good snows here that were around 3 inches each. Since 2000 it really has been feast or famine.

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Where is the cold air? Arctic outbreak we were supposed to be seeing? Remember the CFS had the historic cold this time 2-3 weeks ago?

 

Seriously?  You're already going down that road?

 

It's 26 effing degrees outside my office right now.  Your sudden need to begin debating the cold air is like listening to Charlie Brown's teacher.

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I agree. There were a couple of others talking about that last night. I don't think it used to be that way, but after getting burned a few times and seeing how hard it is to project wintry events down here, I think he plays it ultra safe now. It's probably that way for the other local TV mets in Raleigh/Durham, too. I guess it is smart, though, because you really can't believe the models and they are wrong most of the time with snow around here.

You're failing to make the distinction between weather forum discussion and PUBLIC forecasting. Most of your good on-camera mets are going to use the models as GUIDANCE along with their EXPERIENCE to create a forecast that makes sense.

If you were objectively following this event, you would have seen enough evidence to advise caution in your snow totals. Also, your experience in this area should tell you that more times than not, being conservative turns out to be the correct choice.

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I don't remember it being like that when I was a kid, though. I think it has changed over time. Of course, it seems like we used to get more wintry events in the 80s when I was a kid. I think he got burned some in the 90s and maybe that is when he started going very conservative. Now it seems we either get one huge event each winter or nothing at all. Well, I guess last night was something, but really not much for most folks. Now I would not be surprised if that is all we get this winter. I just recall we used to get about three good snows here that were around 3 inches each. Since 2000 it really has been feast or famine.

I'm sure he's gone out on a limb before and gotten burned. He's learned. Well done, Fishel. Also, the guidance he had back in the 80s and 90s was limited compared to what's available today.

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You're failing to make the distinction between weather forum discussion and PUBLIC forecasting. Most of your good on-camera mets are going to use the models as GUIDANCE along with their EXPERIENCE to create a forecast that makes sense.

If you were objectively following this event, you would have seen enough evidence to advise caution in your snow totals. Also, your experience in this area should tell you that more times than not, being conservative turns out to be the correct choice.

 

I know. I guess I just want to believe the models. Last night showed you can't even trust them more than a couple of hours out. The only thing they can show is potential when it comes to snow around here. If it happens and how much is really just a guess unless you have the absolutely perfect setup, and even then there is always something that can go wrong at the last minute.

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