rduwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I wonder if Mariettawx learned his lesson this week on why you should not poo poo potential threats 4 days in advance.... I'm guilty of this also but looking back 4 days ago I would probably do the samething. This is one of the rare situations the models changed for the better. 4 days ago the models weren't showing this strong of a ULL. Then of all things the NAM pulls a rabit out of its hat. Oh well....I'd rather be wrong if it's going to bring me snow. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I guess we should have learned with the Christmas snow in 2010. The models lost that and then brought it back a couple of days beforehand. I really want to have some thunder snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I bring you... IAGO. http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/winter-storm-iago-20130116 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGaWxNerd Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Hey, Girl, you could get lucky on this one, if it continues to do the north thing! More than a few inches anyway! I'm pulling for ya'll up north 'cause I got the snow with the last two ULLs and you guys got screwed. Nature like a balance! Of course it wouldn't bother me to get a spread out cold core, and get some good rates down here too Good luck!! T Looking this morning as I hang my frizzy haired head out the door, I'm not so sure. Having a hard time deciding which thread to follow and have blow up my phone today while I am out and about. My husband and my BFF and neighboor are both on the south side of ATL today and are depending on me to tell them when to get their Derby Cars started to fight their way north to the lake.OBS said a few flakes in Alabama already. I keep seeing this bid dry looking comma thing on the maps and that makes me sad. If I get screwed I am blaming Wilkesdude for messing with the Norm and bleeping the mojo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGaWxNerd Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I bring you... IAGO. http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/winter-storm-iago-20130116 Hated it. but thanks for posting. Looks like I'm a okay to run the roads until the black ice starts. Wilksdude? You wanna start a thread for that too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I bring you... IAGO. http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/winter-storm-iago-20130116 Yeah, I'm not sure whether that is good or bad! From wikipedia, concerning the Shakespearean play Othello: Iago is a Machiavellian schemer and manipulator, as he is often referred to as "honest Iago", displaying his skill at deceiving other characters so that not only do they not suspect him, but they count on him as the person most likely to be truthful. Is this storm simply a schemer and manipulator? Do we get our hopes up and believe all the models only to have them dashed on the rocks of disappointment and despair? Let's hope not... (OK. where do I come up with this psychological mumbo-jumbo?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGaWxNerd Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Yeah, I'm not sure whether that is good or bad! From wikipedia: Is this storm simply a schemer and manipulator? Do we get our hopes up and believe all the models only to have them dashed on the rocks of disappointment and despair? Let's hope not... (OK. where do I come up with this psychological mumbo-jumbo?) Dude, that's deep. I think you've been hanging in the attic with Stovepipe's woodpeckers.I here it's quite the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Dude, that's deep. I think you've been hanging in the attic with Stovepipe's woodpeckers.I here it's quite the party. Haha! I think Stovepipe has the solution to his problem in his own username. Simply pipe the heat/smoke from his stove into his attic and you'll quickly force those woodpeckers back out into the elements. Of course, you might also burn your house down, if you're not careful. But it's worth a try? Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Following winter weather on social media is priceless, seeing these people in Tuscaloosa all morning pissed because it was raining and complaining about how "what a snow day this was" blah blah and for them now to be changing over it's pretty comical on twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Latest NAM increases the totals! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Latest NAM increases the totals! GSO for the win! Lord, I hope this works out tonight. I'm staying up late. I feel for family back in CHA though. That's a Hamilton County screw job right there if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Have not lost all hope but for this area it does not look like we will be riding the Mule sightseeing Fri. morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 While I'm not new to the board I am still learning. What in the heck is a snow shadow? It looks like there is one on the RAP that goes right through Wake County. I'm assuming that's not a good thing. We got dryslotted a couple years ago and I was bummed. We are in far North Raleigh so I'm beginning to get concerned. Are IMBY posts ok in banter threads? I hope I'm not going to get into any trouble. And yes, there is another woman in here so whoever said they need to pull their pants up please do so . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 GSO for the win! Lord, I hope this works out tonight. I'm staying up late. I feel for family back in CHA though. That's a Hamilton County screw job right there if it verifies. That is par for the course here for this situation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 While I'm not new to the board I am still learning. What in the heck is a snow shadow? It looks like there is one on the RAP that goes right through Wake County. I'm assuming that's not a good thing. We got dryslotted a couple years ago and I was bummed. We are in far North Raleigh so I'm beginning to get concerned. Are IMBY posts ok in banter threads? I hope I'm not going to get into any trouble. And yes, there is another woman in here so whoever said they need to pull their pants up please do so . IMBY requests are more than welcome in the banter thread. They may not always get answered, but there's no harm in asking. My definition of "snow shadow" is simply an area that seems to have much less snowfall than the areas immediately around it. Others may define it differently. I think you'll have a great shot at seeing some nice snow later this evening, but I'm no met. In fact, recent trends of the NAM have been upping the modeled precipitation amounts for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 While I'm not new to the board I am still learning. What in the heck is a snow shadow? It looks like there is one on the RAP that goes right through Wake County. I'm assuming that's not a good thing. We got dryslotted a couple years ago and I was bummed. We are in far North Raleigh so I'm beginning to get concerned. Are IMBY posts ok in banter threads? I hope I'm not going to get into any trouble. And yes, there is another woman in here so whoever said they need to pull their pants up please do so . Welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Brick, do you think I'll I get thundersnow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Thank you both for your replies! I am trying my best to learn because I really do love weather. While I do have a degree in Journalism one of my favorite classes I took at Carolina was weather and climate. Needless to say I didn't do very well, which is why I'm struggling to learn everything. I have tried to temper the expectations of our kiddos but they are expecting tons of snow, so that shadow better be far, far, far away from North Raleigh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 While I'm not new to the board I am still learning. What in the heck is a snow shadow? It looks like there is one on the RAP that goes right through Wake County. I'm assuming that's not a good thing. We got dryslotted a couple years ago and I was bummed. We are in far North Raleigh so I'm beginning to get concerned. Are IMBY posts ok in banter threads? I hope I'm not going to get into any trouble. And yes, there is another woman in here so whoever said they need to pull their pants up please do so . Welcome to the board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Thank you both for your replies! I am trying my best to learn because I really do love weather. While I do have a degree in Journalism one of my favorite classes I took at Carolina was weather and climate. Needless to say I didn't do very well, which is why I'm struggling to learn everything. I have tried to temper the expectations of our kiddos but they are expecting tons of snow, so that shadow better be far, far, far away from North Raleigh! Good to have you! you can correct my spelling mistakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Good to have you! you can correct my spelling mistakes You're too funny! I'm sure my posts are full of spelling mistakes because I type too fast but I will admit to being a member of the grammar police:). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Brick, do you think I'll I get thundersnow? I sure hope I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Thank you both for your replies! I am trying my best to learn because I really do love weather. While I do have a degree in Journalism one of my favorite classes I took at Carolina was weather and climate. Needless to say I didn't do very well, which is why I'm struggling to learn everything. I have tried to temper the expectations of our kiddos but they are expecting tons of snow, so that shadow better be far, far, far away from North Raleigh! The shadow I have referred to (and others, as well) has been showing up in the lee of the mountains. We're talking Burke, Caldwell, Wilkes counties. The cities of Morganton, Lenoir, Wilkesboro. Raleigh is nowhere near this feature. I have three small kids myself, though. I always temper my expectations when talking with them. I don't want to build it up so big and then dash their hopes. So, I've told them that there is a good chance we might "see" snow this evening, but that I'm still not positive. It's much better to surprise them with bigger amounts than to disappoint them with lower ones. At the same time, I'm privately hoping for around 4 inches of snow, but I keep this to myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I wonder if Mariettawx learned his lesson this week on why you should not poo poo potential threats 4 days in advance.... I was with Marietta on this one. Let's be honest - who really thought the NAM would lead the way at that point? I don't blame him at all. Hell, I just started biting on this 2 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I was with Marietta on this one. Let's be honest - who really thought the NAM would lead the way at that point? I don't blame him at all. Hell, I just started biting on this 2 days ago. I was too. Marietta is a sharp guy. He had reasons to doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Ok, I have a weenie question. In what most would consider classic "good" snowstorms (Miller A for example), what kind of radar returns are typical? The Hi-Res NAM is throwing out 40-45dzb for 4 hours straight with 30dzb returns on each end of that. It's also showing masive precip of .25+ during those hours. That has to be overdone right? If not, it would be over a foot! Somebody calm me down please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The local media mets still seem to be on the low end of their projected totals compared to the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The local media mets still seem to be on the low end of their projected totals compared to the models. That's because the models are based off a 10:1 ratio. In reality the bulk of the qpf will be half that unless you are in the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The local media mets still seem to be on the low end of their projected totals compared to the models. The models are not accounting for melting from the warm ground... and they are assuming 10:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The shadow I have referred to (and others, as well) has been showing up in the lee of the mountains. We're talking Burke, Caldwell, Wilkes counties. The cities of Morganton, Lenoir, Wilkesboro. Raleigh is nowhere near this feature. I have three small kids myself, though. I always temper my expectations when talking with them. I don't want to build it up so big and then dash their hopes. So, I've told them that there is a good chance we might "see" snow this evening, but that I'm still not positive. It's much better to surprise them with bigger amounts than to disappoint them with lower ones. At the same time, I'm privately hoping for around 4 inches of snow, but I keep this to myself. Thank you for your response! That makes sense about the shadow. I guess I was just reading the map wrong (not surprising.) I told our kiddos this morning that it would be a pleasant surprise if we saw snow in the morning but our seven year-old said, "well we better have some snow because we didn't get any last year and it wasn't fair." Kids don't seem to understand that life isn't always fair . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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