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January Banter


WilkesboroDude

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"Great post Robert! I have to say this really got my weenie senses tingling. Hope you're spot on like you usually are!"

 

I just found this post funny.  Imagine if someone stumbled upon this forum from the inner webs not realizing it was a weather forum.  What would they think they clicked on?  You might be surprised what google searches would return such a link.

 

Regardless, it's been fun tracking this thing with you folks.  Best of luck and all that.

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From RAH. It's about to be on!

 

AS FOR THE WINTER STORM WATCH... THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS COMING IN MUCH IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS MODELS... AND WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST. IF ANYTHING... THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST MAY BE UNDERDONE GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRONG LIFT/DYNAMICAL COOLING EXPECTED AS THE MID/UPPER LOW TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FROM NEAR AUGUSTA TO NEAR CAE TO NEAR FAY OF THE MID LEVEL CENTER IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENTS FOR AT LEAST THE CURRENT WATCH AREA OF CENTRAL NC. IF THE REST OF THE MODELS ARRIVE WITH SIMILAR TRACKS/STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM... THE SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECASTS LIKELY BE BEEFED UP ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM HIGH ROCK TO ASHEBORO TO RALEIGH AND ROCKY MOUNT...NORTHWARD... WITH THE MAIN IMPACT AFTER DARK THURSDAY.

 

Brick - I hope you get crushed, it will be your WOTY victory party!

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I refuse to post in an obs thread started by Wilkesboro.... Too much at stake. We need a decent poster to start it.

Like I said earlier, this storm is like a fart in a whirlwind and whomever smells it first , should start the thread. I'm guessing that's some lucky, olfactory- gifted soul in Ms or Alabama.

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I was comparing this storm to the Jan 17-19 1994 Indiana/Ky storm. I got stranded in that one and all the talk of ratios, quick change overs from rain to snow got me reminiscing. Cute how NOAA charts are sometimes hand wriitten and magic marker graphics. FWIW the 2 storms only compare by dates and potential for crazy QPF. 1994 was not an ULL.

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No joke you can find the disco ball at Lowe's...less than 20$. Yes, I own a disco ball, I'm groovy like that.

Hey, Girl, you could get lucky on this one, if it continues to do the  north thing!  More than a few inches anyway!  I'm pulling for ya'll up north 'cause I got the snow with the last two ULLs and you guys got screwed.  Nature like a balance!  Of course it wouldn't bother me to get a spread out cold core, and get some good rates down here too :)  Good luck!!  T

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OK, I know he is approaching this from a safety standpoint, but I have to disagree with him on the final assessment.  The majority of us snow-lovers on here would actually prefer to prolong the event.  :mapsnow:

 

Bring on a couple feet of this stuff!  We don't get many opportunities like this around these parts.  :thumbsup:

He suffered such damage from the wet snow with the last big ULL, I think it turned him off snow.  He likes it for others, but said he could do without for himself :)  T

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:clap: :clap: Exactly. He needs to let a pro start a bigtime thread like this one will be.

Maybe I'm naive, but why does it matter? It just seems so pretentious and pedantic to lambast the thread starter when the focus of everyone here is squarely placed on the content within. With long-running threads such as this, the thread starter is ancillary at best. When he started this thread, this was not modeled to be the big time storm that models are currently showing. As long as the formalities of this forum are carried out in the opening post, who cares which member starts the thread? I don't.

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Maybe I'm naive, but why does it matter? It just seems so pretentious and pedantic to lambast the thread starter when the focus of everyone here is squarely placed on the content within. With long-running threads such as this, the thread starter is ancillary at best. When he started this thread, this was not modeled to be the big time storm that models are currently showing. As long as the formalities of this forum are carried out in the opening post, who cares which member starts the thread? I don't.

 

He knew what he was doing. It was a contract and is tradition for the person who starts the storm thread to start the obvs thread. Is it pretentious? Yes. However part of getting into any society real world or internet is adhering to certain norms.  The norm around here being letting Jeremy start the obvs thread. Wilkes knew this and started one anyways just to be d*ck. That's why it matters. 

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I wonder if Mariettawx learned his lesson this week on why you should not poo poo potential threats 4 days in advance....

 

Or a few other posters. At least he gave sound relevant reasons as to why, that's all I ask. There are others who would give no real reason why other than "it doesn't look like it" or "BL temps are an issue!". 

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Question for somebody who know what variables are used in the models:

Looking at the 6z GFS it shows my location receiving close to 6 inches. The NAM show a little less than three. I  believe the NAM,but is it just showing less precip after 850s drop or is it using more specific variables like snow ratios (10:1 or 5:1), ground temps, surface temp,...etc.

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Here is the last nam 10:1

 

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays-10to1.php3?STATIONID=RAX

 

 

Question for somebody who know what variables are used in the models:

Looking at the 6z GFS it shows my location receiving close to 6 inches. The NAM show a little less than three. I  believe the NAM,but is it just showing less precip after 850s drop or is it using more specific variables like snow ratios (10:1 or 5:1), ground temps, surface temp,...etc.

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Thanks! I'm in the 5-6 range.

 

I still am not using the best tools (sites) to get my information. I was looking at the Twister site which shows a different output (around 3"). Now this would be correct if we consider 5:1 ratioes.

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Thanks! I'm in the 5-6 range.

 

I still am not using the best tools (sites) to get my information. I was looking at the Twister site which shows a different output (around 3"). Now this would be correct if we consider 5:1 ratioes.

 

I think we could get at least 4 inches out of this, and some spots even more in places like northern Durham and Wake, and especially up into Granville, Vance, and Person.

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