Stovepipe Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 "Great post Robert! I have to say this really got my weenie senses tingling. Hope you're spot on like you usually are!" I just found this post funny. Imagine if someone stumbled upon this forum from the inner webs not realizing it was a weather forum. What would they think they clicked on? You might be surprised what google searches would return such a link. Regardless, it's been fun tracking this thing with you folks. Best of luck and all that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 From RAH. It's about to be on! AS FOR THE WINTER STORM WATCH... THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS COMING IN MUCH IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS MODELS... AND WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST. IF ANYTHING... THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST MAY BE UNDERDONE GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRONG LIFT/DYNAMICAL COOLING EXPECTED AS THE MID/UPPER LOW TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FROM NEAR AUGUSTA TO NEAR CAE TO NEAR FAY OF THE MID LEVEL CENTER IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENTS FOR AT LEAST THE CURRENT WATCH AREA OF CENTRAL NC. IF THE REST OF THE MODELS ARRIVE WITH SIMILAR TRACKS/STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM... THE SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECASTS LIKELY BE BEEFED UP ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM HIGH ROCK TO ASHEBORO TO RALEIGH AND ROCKY MOUNT...NORTHWARD... WITH THE MAIN IMPACT AFTER DARK THURSDAY. Brick - I hope you get crushed, it will be your WOTY victory party! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I refuse to post in an obs thread started by Wilkesboro.... Too much at stake. We need a decent poster to start it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGaWxNerd Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I refuse to post in an obs thread started by Wilkesboro.... Too much at stake. We need a decent poster to start it. Like I said earlier, this storm is like a fart in a whirlwind and whomever smells it first , should start the thread. I'm guessing that's some lucky, olfactory- gifted soul in Ms or Alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGaWxNerd Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I was comparing this storm to the Jan 17-19 1994 Indiana/Ky storm. I got stranded in that one and all the talk of ratios, quick change overs from rain to snow got me reminiscing. Cute how NOAA charts are sometimes hand wriitten and magic marker graphics. FWIW the 2 storms only compare by dates and potential for crazy QPF. 1994 was not an ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Like I said earlier, this storm is like a fart in a whirlwind and whomever smells it first , should start the thread. I'm guessing that's some lucky, olfactory- gifted soul in Ms or Alabama. Isn't bingcrosbyb from Alabama? Maybe he should do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Isn't bingcrosbyb from Alabama? Maybe he should do it. Anyone but Wilkes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Anyone but Wilkes... Someone already replied to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Someone already replied to it. aw dammit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Who cares? Have a mod delete it and get someone to start another? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 pretty stoked for some snow now hopefully it will brighten everyone's spirits because this rain feels damn depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I considered reporting it. I mean him starting that thread is objectionable content to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I guess it has to clobber those north of the Mason-Dixon line before we go into official Storm Mode. Amiriteoramirite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I considered reporting it. I mean him starting that thread is objectionable content to me. :clap: Exactly. He needs to let a pro start a bigtime thread like this one will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I guess it has to clobber those north of the Mason-Dixon line before we go into official Storm Mode. Amiriteoramirite? We are in storm mode. (At the top of the main SE forum index) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 We are in storm mode. (At the top of the main SE forum index) Whoa. Well, there it is. Didn't it used to be in larger letters plastered across the top of the homepage? Must have gotten smaller since the board upgrade. (That's what she said.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Goodnight folks. I'm gonna see if I can get out of class around noon-ish tomorrow so I can come watch it unfold. Definitely will be sneaking a few illegal peaks in here during class though. Sweet dreams of thundersnow for all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 No joke you can find the disco ball at Lowe's...less than 20$. Yes, I own a disco ball, I'm groovy like that. Hey, Girl, you could get lucky on this one, if it continues to do the north thing! More than a few inches anyway! I'm pulling for ya'll up north 'cause I got the snow with the last two ULLs and you guys got screwed. Nature like a balance! Of course it wouldn't bother me to get a spread out cold core, and get some good rates down here too Good luck!! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 OK, I know he is approaching this from a safety standpoint, but I have to disagree with him on the final assessment. The majority of us snow-lovers on here would actually prefer to prolong the event. Bring on a couple feet of this stuff! We don't get many opportunities like this around these parts. He suffered such damage from the wet snow with the last big ULL, I think it turned him off snow. He likes it for others, but said he could do without for himself T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Wait...we have girls on this forum? I better pull my pants up then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sugaree Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 :clap: Exactly. He needs to let a pro start a bigtime thread like this one will be. Maybe I'm naive, but why does it matter? It just seems so pretentious and pedantic to lambast the thread starter when the focus of everyone here is squarely placed on the content within. With long-running threads such as this, the thread starter is ancillary at best. When he started this thread, this was not modeled to be the big time storm that models are currently showing. As long as the formalities of this forum are carried out in the opening post, who cares which member starts the thread? I don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Maybe I'm naive, but why does it matter? It just seems so pretentious and pedantic to lambast the thread starter when the focus of everyone here is squarely placed on the content within. With long-running threads such as this, the thread starter is ancillary at best. When he started this thread, this was not modeled to be the big time storm that models are currently showing. As long as the formalities of this forum are carried out in the opening post, who cares which member starts the thread? I don't. He knew what he was doing. It was a contract and is tradition for the person who starts the storm thread to start the obvs thread. Is it pretentious? Yes. However part of getting into any society real world or internet is adhering to certain norms. The norm around here being letting Jeremy start the obvs thread. Wilkes knew this and started one anyways just to be d*ck. That's why it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I wonder if Mariettawx learned his lesson this week on why you should not poo poo potential threats 4 days in advance.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I wonder if Mariettawx learned his lesson this week on why you should not poo poo potential threats 4 days in advance.... Or a few other posters. At least he gave sound relevant reasons as to why, that's all I ask. There are others who would give no real reason why other than "it doesn't look like it" or "BL temps are an issue!". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I hope Brick gets three feet of snow. Me Too!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Question for somebody who know what variables are used in the models: Looking at the 6z GFS it shows my location receiving close to 6 inches. The NAM show a little less than three. I believe the NAM,but is it just showing less precip after 850s drop or is it using more specific variables like snow ratios (10:1 or 5:1), ground temps, surface temp,...etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Nice to see Lookout & WeatherNC back on board! hope everything is well with you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Here is the last nam 10:1 http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays-10to1.php3?STATIONID=RAX Question for somebody who know what variables are used in the models: Looking at the 6z GFS it shows my location receiving close to 6 inches. The NAM show a little less than three. I believe the NAM,but is it just showing less precip after 850s drop or is it using more specific variables like snow ratios (10:1 or 5:1), ground temps, surface temp,...etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Here is the last nam 10:1 http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays-10to1.php3?STATIONID=RAX Thanks! I'm in the 5-6 range. I still am not using the best tools (sites) to get my information. I was looking at the Twister site which shows a different output (around 3"). Now this would be correct if we consider 5:1 ratioes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Thanks! I'm in the 5-6 range. I still am not using the best tools (sites) to get my information. I was looking at the Twister site which shows a different output (around 3"). Now this would be correct if we consider 5:1 ratioes. I think we could get at least 4 inches out of this, and some spots even more in places like northern Durham and Wake, and especially up into Granville, Vance, and Person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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