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January Banter


WilkesboroDude

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Listen up folks...................before posting here read the pinned thread on posting etiquette, then re-read it several times until you completely understand.

 

Consider this a warning to everyone.  My trigger finger is running on a short fuse and time outs/warnings will be issued without notice

Just in case anyone missed this  :whistle:

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I've hit 70 degrees a total of 4 times (I think) since December.  Two of those were in the first week of Dec. which isn't unusual.

 

Folks in eastern NC however - yeah...suck city this year.

 

And there goes the snow hole on the 18z GFS! (Great, the best-looking model is the lowest-resolution and worst-performing this close to the event.)

 

18zgfssnowdepth042.gif

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I don't wanna hear any complaining from Brick. There is usually a 3-4 inch gradient across Wake County and I'm in the SE little corner that always gets the least. He's in the money spot and don't let him tell ya any different.

I feel bad for Jon...he's farther south than me. But maybe the Pack can come through for him tonight at least! :)

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I don't wanna hear any complaining from Brick. There is usually a 3-4 inch gradient across Wake County and I'm in the SE little corner that always gets the least. He's in the money spot and don't let him tell ya any different.

I feel bad for Jon...he's farther south than me. But maybe the Pack can come through for him tonight at least! :)

 

Seems the TV forecasts are just saying an inch at best, though. Maybe they will increase it tomorrow.

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Charlottesville has 6-10 inches in the FC when the NAM has nothing. Somebody is gonna get Mega Screwed!

 

Yet, this system will still prove you were wrong.  

 

I will - in all seriousness - give you credit for admitting that you didn't think the globals would bow to the NAM.  Many of us would not have thought that in the beginning.

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Was thinking about this too. How much UVM do you need to dynamically cool a column to produce snow? New data valid at 18Z sounding has 850mb temps way above zero, then crashing to zero by 00Z. I know intense VV's can cool the column quickly, but just HOW quickly?

 

Alright, help me out someone.  We've got some mighty big acronyms floating around the storm thread that I can't make sense of.  What is UVM and VV?  Thanks for dropping some knowledge on me!

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How much are you expecting? I see you are in a WSW.

That's a good question. My experience with these types of systems is that the don't go crazy here like they tend to do for some of the western and northern areas (I posted that in the other thread too). I would guess a sloppy inch or two here.

I think ATL is under a WSW just to raise public awareness of the potential...and there is potential for a minor event there (and here). If that pans out, they can always change to a WAA. If it trends worse, they can always upgrade to a Warning. A WSW leaves them room and options going forward. It's a prudent thing to do at this point, probably.

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Was thinking about this too. How much UVM do you need to dynamically cool a column to produce snow? New data valid at 18Z sounding has 850mb temps way above zero, then crashing to zero by 00Z. I know intense VV's can cool the column quickly, but just HOW quickly?

Alright, help me out someone. We've got some mighty big acronyms floating around the storm thread that I can't make sense of. What is UVM and VV? Thanks for dropping some knowledge on me!

UVM is upward vertical motion. DVM would be downward vertical motion.

VV is vertical velocity.

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My concern is Mr. Cold Rain isn't on board it seems. I joined this forum right about the time he called his own 'shot' around Xmas a few years ago and we got bombed on IMBY, get on board man! :snowing:

 

An aside, I kind of have to agree with chapelhillwx, metalic dude seems hell bent on being the trollio of upcoming bust areas...

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