Brick Tamland Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 <blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="Brick Tamland" data-cid="1977125" data-time="1357140206"><p>Do people really think it's easier for the models to get a snow storm right 10 days out in the southeast versus a warm up? That doesn't even make common sense to me.</p></blockquote> Are you asking what's easier for the model to show or what's likely to be more accurate? What's more likely to be accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 <blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="Brick Tamland" data-cid="1977156" data-time="1357141077"><p> What's more likely to be accurate.</p></blockquote> Let me ask one more thing: do you honestly want to talk about it or are you just going to talk junk and leave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 <blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="Brick Tamland" data-cid="1977156" data-time="1357141077"><p>What's more likely to be accurate.</p></blockquote> Let me ask one more thing: do you honestly want to talk about it or are you just going to talk junk and leave? LOL... you know the answer to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I think it would be more accurate showing a warm up 10 days out than it would showing snow around here 10 days out just because it takes so much to go right to get snow here. I think it's easier for the models to handle the warm ups than it is for them to handle a system that might bring snow. But maybe they will show a warm up and we'll get a surprise. It seems looking at the longe range for snow doesn't work out, and it's better to just have something pop up a day or two in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 My gut tells me to watch for a storm next week, but it also tells me to eat a lot of food it hates afterwords. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 looks like a long warm with no snow winter to me other than the little bit of ice or snow flurries. its like pulling teeth to get a snow storm in the NC Mtns. when I was growing up in the 50's and 60's we had snow in Asheville NC all winter long it seemed like. School was closed the whole month of February I think like 1962 or 1963. This is unbelieavable with not any snow storm to track in the future. Not really....have you seen ALL of the model runs. Yes, there may be a period of above normal but winter lasts until mid March. I also remember wearing shorts in January in the 70s....warm and cold periods happen all of the time, like in the past and will going into the future. Could we have more cold/snow this year...sure but we could also be sun bathing in Feb....no one knows for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 <blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="Brick Tamland" data-cid="1977192" data-time="1357141895"><p> I think it would be more accurate showing a warm up 10 days out than it would showing snow around here 10 days out just because it takes so much to go right to get snow here. I think it's easier for the models to handle the warm ups than it is for them to handle a system that might bring snow.<br /> <br /> But maybe they will show a warm up and we'll get a surprise. It seems looking at the longe range for snow doesn't work out, and it's better to just have something pop up a day or two in advance.</p></blockquote> Since you didn't run away and at least made an attempt at reasoning this, I'll discuss it with you. But I have to run to a meeting, so it'll be a little while. Check back in a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 <blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="Brick Tamland" data-cid="1977125" data-time="1357140206"><p> Do people really think it's easier for the models to get a snow storm right 10 days out in the southeast versus a warm up? That doesn't even make common sense to me.</p></blockquote> Snowstorm obviously. Didn't you know every time GFS shows a snowstorm in the long range it verifies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Not really....have you seen ALL of the model runs. Yes, there may be a period of above normal but winter lasts until mid March. I also remember wearing shorts in January in the 70s....warm and cold periods happen all of the time, like in the past and will going into the future. Could we have more cold/snow this year...sure but we could also be sun bathing in Feb....no one knows for sure! I've been sunburned in January more than once. "Normal" winters in the SE have spells of warm and cold. It's a simple concept. Some areas may be more prone than others to an extended temp swing up or down - but overall, the SE doesn't go into the freezer at the beginning of December and come out in March. That would be really abnormal. Carver probably experiences winter differently than I do - we are worlds apart geographically when it comes to winter. Same for the Ral/Dur area. The common denominator still lies in the fact that normal winters have never been a freezer wire to wire (I will exclude locations in elevation because I really don't know - elevation is a big dynamic changer). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I've been sunburned in January more than once. "Normal" winters in the SE have spells of warm and cold. It's a simple concept. Some areas may be more prone than others to an extended temp swing up or down - but overall, the SE doesn't go into the freezer at the beginning of December and come out in March. That would be really abnormal. Carver probably experiences winter differently than I do - we are worlds apart geographically when it comes to winter. Same for the Ral/Dur area. The common denominator still lies in the fact that normal winters have never been a freezer wire to wire (I will exclude locations in elevation because I really don't know - elevation is a big dynamic changer). Agreed, but we also shouldn't be wire to wire warm either like last winter :-) I do like our winters, it can be 30F and snowing and than 2 days later 60 and sunny and your on the golf course, I think we have a great chance at having that this winter. I find it hard to believe we are going to get skunked this winter, that would make it 6 out of the past 9 years of 1" or below, that is historically bad for RDU, although maybe that is the new norm now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Agreed, but we also shouldn't be wire to wire warm either like last winter :-) I do like our winters, it can be 30F and snowing and than 2 days later 60 and sunny and your on the golf course, I think we have a great chance at having that this winter. I find it hard to believe we are going to get skunked this winter, that would make it 6 out of the past 9 years of 1" or below, that is historically bad for RDU, although maybe that is the new norm now. OMG dude - that was just brutal. I'm still dealing with the effects of that fiasco...there's no question that last winter was definitely NOT normal. You also just pointed out one of the main reasons the SE is booming with friendly northern nomads. Many people move down here because of the winters we have. That has been going on since before I walked this earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 OMG dude - that was just brutal. I'm still dealing with the effects of that fiasco...there's no question that last winter was definitely NOT normal. You also just pointed out one of the main reasons the SE is booming with friendly northern nomads. Many people move down here because of the winters we have. That has been going on since before I walked this earth. Agreed, I bet if I lived in the NE where you had snow on the ground from mid-Dec to March I would hate snow. I love our climate down here, of course I would like a little more snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 <blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="packbacker" data-cid="1977275" data-time="1357144190"><p> Agreed, I bet if I lived in the NE where you had snow on the ground from mid-Dec to March I would hate snow. I love our climate down here, of course I would like a little more snow!</p></blockquote> No. The people up there root for another storm it seems right after one is done. When I stayed up in Chicago, I liked to see how much snow would pile up before it melted on a 50-60 degree day in the middle of winter lol. Snowplows would pile up alll the snow in one area and would sometimes look like mountains LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Why are people looking for a storm this weekend when it's supposed to be sunny and in the 50s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 <blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="packbacker" data-cid="1977275" data-time="1357144190"><p>Agreed, I bet if I lived in the NE where you had snow on the ground from mid-Dec to March I would hate snow. I love our climate down here, of course I would like a little more snow!</p></blockquote> No. The people up there root for another storm it seems right after one is done. When I stayed up in Chicago, I liked to see how much snow would pile up before it melted on a 50-60 degree day in the middle of winter lol. Snowplows would pile up alll the snow in one area and would sometimes look like mountains LOL. Really? Even it when it snows here I am ready for it to be gone after about 2 days. I can't be the only one that feels that way.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Really? Even it when it snows here I am ready for it to be gone after about 2 days. I can't be the only one that feels that way.... I am the same way, actually. I like snow and want snow because it's something different and special here. Plus the kids love it. But it's like Christmas, once it comes I am ready to get back to normal for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Did you go to UT? My dad is in SA and I have a good friend that just moved out to ATX. I have to say I'm immensely jealous of him(except the whole basically no snow thing). Sorry to just be getting to this...it was a stop along my collegiate tour. I ended my student career in Charleston, SC though, and then moved back to the upstate of SC. Austin is one of the few cities I would go back to as a resident. It is a great place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Really? Even it when it snows here I am ready for it to be gone after about 2 days. I can't be the only one that feels that way.... I'm with you there. I enjoy the tracking, falling and initial plundering with the kids. But then I tend to get annoyed with the slush and black, dirty piles that linger. We aren't equipped to deal with extended snow cover, so it get's to be problematic when the game clock starts back up and we have to run our everyday plays again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 45 guests in the SE forum... All 45 sitting in the January thread waiting for a storm . Signing up is easy folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 45 guests in the SE forum... All 45 sitting in the January thread waiting for a storm . Signing up is easy folks They are going to be waiting for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 My gut tells me to watch for a storm next week, but it also tells me to eat a lot of food it hates afterwords. Yeah, I had talking gut worms one time too. Real annoying, but they did predict snow once T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 <blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="Brick Tamland" data-cid="1977308" data-time="1357145317"><p> I am the same way, actually. I like snow and want snow because it's something different and special here. Plus the kids love it. But it's like Christmas, once it comes I am ready to get back to normal for a while.</p></blockquote> Ok, back to the 10 model stuff....again. Think about it like this: a weather model gets a snapshot of data at several specific points across a region: wind speed and direction, temps, moisture, etc. At SPECIFIC points. The atmosphere is made up if an infinite number of specific points. The date fed into a model only accounts for a few of them. The model doesn't know what's happening between the points of data that is fed into it. So it has to guess. Hopefully, it makes a good guess. Then, from that point, it has to guess how the entire atmosphere is going to change and what it's going to look like one day from now, two days from now, etc. The guesses it makes are based on dynamic equations that the human race created to simulate the atmosphere. The model then can make an educated guess as to the state of the atmosphere both currently and in the future. It generally guesses pretty well for a short while out. But because it doesn't know the entire make-up of the atmosphere from the get-go and because the equations are imperfect, the farther out in time you go, the more the opportunity for error. The equations used in a model can also give it a bias. The GFS's bias is cold in the LR. If you know that, then it's easy to understand why it shows snow in the LR that frequently doesn't pan out. As a forecaster, you can use that to your advantage. This is why you should look at patterns instead of specifics. Think about it another way. You play basketball. Is it easier to hit a layup or a half courter? A layup. Why? Because you have to guess a lot more (and hopefully a lot more correctly) in order to make a half courter. There's a lot more room for error with a layup. See, you would probably miss a lot of half courters, so you would be like the GFS. Your bias would probably be short. Me, on the other hand, I would miss some too, but not as badly as you and would probably make a lot more. I would be like the Euro. Make sense now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I get that Cold Rain. All I said was it's easier for the models to get the warm up right in the long range than it is the snow around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
augustagaweather Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 I've been looking around on the interwebz and I'm shocked that I'm not finding an analysis tool that shows some sort of "margin of error" tracking for weather models. In its simplest form, I envision an application where you enter your zipcode, desired date, and possibly desired computer model and it comes back with a grid showing the observed value, 10 day model prediction and margin of error, 5 day prediction(margin of error), 3 day prediction and margin of error, etc... Anyone know of such a beast? I know a lot of you look at the models enough to have a concept of how the accuracy has been trending, but it seems like someone should have made a more exact science out of it by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 2, 2013 Author Share Posted January 2, 2013 US National Weather Service Blacksburg VA Watch out for some icy spots west of the Blue Ridge through this morning: I like their choice of images, sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Great Question. I know their are sites around that show the verification of models is a given time period. Not sure about a zip code search however, that would be awesome. I've been looking around on the interwebz and I'm shocked that I'm not finding an analysis tool that shows some sort of "margin of error" tracking for weather models. In its simplest form, I envision an application where you enter your zipcode, desired date, and possibly desired computer model and it comes back with a grid showing the observed value, 10 day model prediction and margin of error, 5 day prediction(margin of error), 3 day prediction and margin of error, etc... Anyone know of such a beast? I know a lot of you look at the models enough to have a concept of how the accuracy has been trending, but it seems like someone should have made a more exact science out of it by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Is this day ever gonna end? I really think there was a special on stupidity and everyone stocked up for the new year /endrant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 <blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="Brick Tamland" data-cid="1977392" data-time="1357147859"><p> I get that Cold Rain. All I said was it's easier for the models to get the warm up right in the long range than it is the snow around here.</p></blockquote> Well, it doesn't seem like you get it because you seem perplexed all throughout the winter, each and every winter, that the models show cold and snow 10 days out and then it doesn't happen. Of course a 10 day snowstorm is less likely to verify than a 10 day warm up. Many things have to come together precisely to get a snowstorm, while it doesn't take much to get a warm up. You know this. If you throw a bunch of random ingredients all over the counter, you're much more likely to end up a mess than to get a cake. What I'm perplexed about is why you always seem so disappointed by the models showing cold and snow and then it not happening. What I'm perplexed about why it's hard to understand that it's more important to look at what the pattern might support and put more weight on that than the snowstorm that a long range model prog might be showing. What I'm perplexed about is why when the models show a snowstorm and then take it away, it's somehow the model's fault and models can't be trusted and why does it even make sense to have models and all that nonsense. A model makes the best guess it can with the limited data, the imperfect equations, and the limited computing power that it has, a concept you claim to get yet seems to be refuted my most of your posts. It's hard to get snow in the SE and it doesn't snow based on what a model shows. But they're the best thing that we have right now to help forecast the weather. The best thing would be to use them as guidance and quit complaining about them all the time. But I know that won't happen. So carry on. Just for fun, we should make a bet that if the models show cold and snow beyond 10 days and it actually happens, you have to buy me lunch. And you know I was just messing with you about the basketball stuff, although I do have a pretty good half court shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 <blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="Brick Tamland" data-cid="1977392" data-time="1357147859"><p>I get that Cold Rain. All I said was it's easier for the models to get the warm up right in the long range than it is the snow around here.</p></blockquote> Well, it doesn't seem like you get it because you seem perplexed all throughout the winter, each and every winter, that the models show cold and snow 10 days out and then it doesn't happen. Of course a 10 day snowstorm is less likely to verify than a 10 day warm up. Many things have to come together precisely to get a snowstorm, while it doesn't take much to get a warm up. You know this. If you throw a bunch of random ingredients all over the counter, you're much more likely to end up a mess than to get a cake. What I'm perplexed about is why you always seem so disappointed by the models showing cold and snow and then it not happening. What I'm perplexed about why it's hard to understand that it's more important to look at what the pattern might support and put more weight on that than the snowstorm that a long range model prog might be showing. What I'm perplexed about is why when the models show a snowstorm and then take it away, it's somehow the model's fault and models can't be trusted and why does it even make sense to have models and all that nonsense. A model makes the best guess it can with the limited data, the imperfect equations, and the limited computing power that it has, a concept you claim to get yet seems to be refuted my most of your posts. It's hard to get snow in the SE and it doesn't snow based on what a model shows. But they're the best thing that we have right now to help forecast the weather. The best thing would be to use them as guidance and quit complaining about them all the time. But I know that won't happen. So carry on. Just for fun, we should make a bet that if the models show cold and snow beyond 10 days and it actually happens, you have to buy me lunch. And you know I was just messing with you about the basketball stuff, although I do have a pretty good half court shot. I'm perplexed that others don't see this, though, and seem to think the models are just as good with forecasting snow here than a warm up in th elong range. As far as the other stuff goes, I just get pissed off because I want snow. Everything else in winter is boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 <blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="buckeyefan1" data-cid="1977497" data-time="1357152024"><p> Is this day ever gonna end? I really think there was a special on stupidity and everyone stocked up for the new year /endrant</p></blockquote> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.