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January Banter

WilkesboroDude

By WilkesboroDude,
in Southeastern States

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
Posted

If the NAM is right... Roadtrip to Nashville?

Yeah I'm heading up there. Models tend to under do precip amounts especially with ULL and they under do the strength of them. NAM typically has the best handle of these setups this far out. Models don't account for the snow cover in place across the US so subtract 10 degrees off your forecast high and bam snowstorms. Don't worry about boundary layer temps as the models tend to have a substantial torching bias along with surface temps. This setup is similar to the Tennessee Crusher of 98 when no model but the NAM picked up on the snowstorm. NAM only showed 3 inches of snow but 9 actually fell along with thundersnow. So when using the NAM for snow just aadd thundersnow +6 and bam the forecast will be nailed each time.
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calculus1

calculus1

Posted
Posted

There is going to be some very upset people after this storm passes. Boundary layer is a huge problem for those expecting snow. I've seen this show before and it doesn't end well.

 

I don't understand why you're so down on this system for those north of you.  I agree that it's a really long shot for points near ATL to see any frozen precip, but the latest model runs of the NAM and the GFS have been quite encouraging for many parts of TN and NC.  Even if it doesn't end up working out, I am just enjoying contemplating the chance here.  It's been 2 years!  Two years!  Don't begrudge me the fun of hanging on each model run.  :)

 

If it doesn't work out, sure I'll be disappointed.  Upset is a pretty strong word.  But, somehow I'll dig deep within myself and manage to drag myself out of bed the next day and make it to work (/dripping with sarcasm here).  If I didn't allow myself to enjoy the thoughts of snow until there was a 100% chance of it falling, I wouldn't have any fun with this hobby/obsession.  :icecream:

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
Posted

I don't understand why you're so down on this system for those north of you. I agree that it's a really long shot for points near ATL to see any frozen precip, but the latest model runs of the NAM and the GFS have been quite encouraging for many parts of TN and NC. Even if it doesn't end up working out, I am just enjoying contemplating the chance here. It's been 2 years! Two years! Don't begrudge me the fun of hanging on each model run. :)

If it doesn't work out, sure I'll be disappointed. Upset is a pretty strong word. But, somehow I'll dig deep within myself and manage to drag myself out of bed the next day and make it to work (/dripping with sarcasm here). If I didn't allow myself to enjoy the thoughts of snow until there was a 100% chance of it falling, I wouldn't have any fun with this hobby/obsession. :icecream:

Some folks seem to be expecting a snowstorm.

Best case someone gets a quick change over IMO with nothing sticking. Temps are way too warm everywhere in the south for this one.

Edit : maybe the mountains if things come together just right due to so,e locations being at 850mb. My iPad mutilated this post. My bad.

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calculus1

calculus1

Posted
Posted

Some folks seem to be expecting a snowstorm.

Best case someone gets a quick change over IMO with nothing sticking. Temps are way too warm everywhere in the south for this one.

Edit : maybe the mountains if things come together just right due to so,e locations being at 850mb. My iPad mutilated this post. My bad.

 

Yeah, I'm still trying to figure out what your edit line is supposed to say:  "...due to so,e locations being at 850 mb"  Huh?

 

I'm not expecting a snowstorm.  Maybe others are.  I'm hopeful for a snowstorm.  I like to think of it as cautiously optimistic.  Yes, surface temps are progged a little warm.  I can still enjoy snow falling from the sky, though, even if it doesn't stick.  Frustrating, yes.  That happened here last year during the one minor event that gave the Triad an inch or two.  I got 0.5 inch of snow here in Hickory after several hours of snowfall because the ground was so warm.  But, at least I got to see some snow fall.  Maybe I'll see it again on Thursday night, Friday morning.

 

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
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Yeah, I'm still trying to figure out what your edit line is supposed to say:  "...due to so,e locations being at 850 mb"  Huh?

 

I'm not expecting a snowstorm.  Maybe others are.  I'm hopeful for a snowstorm.  I like to think of it as cautiously optimistic.  Yes, surface temps are progged a little warm.  I can still enjoy snow falling from the sky, though, even if it doesn't stick.  Frustrating, yes.  That happened here last year during the one minor event that gave the Triad an inch or two.  I got 0.5 inch of snow here in Hickory after several hours of snowfall because the ground was so warm.  But, at least I got to see some snow fall.  Maybe I'll see it again on Thursday night, Friday morning.

 

The mountains may get something if things come together just right due to some locations being at the 850 MB level at ground level Is what I was trying to say. More power to those expecting snow. I don't see a threat here... As far as ULLs go its not strong and temps are a big problem. This system has too much against it for even a surprise IMO.

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calculus1

calculus1

Posted
Posted

The mountains may get something if things come together just right due to some locations being at the 850 MB level at ground level Is what I was trying to say. More power to those expecting snow. I don't see a threat here... As far as ULLs go its not strong and temps are a big problem. This system has too much against it for even a surprise IMO.

 

Fair enough.  I think the system has several items in its favor for my locale:  current track of ULL across central GA and an upward trend on precipitation output from the most recent models, among others.  So, I'll continue to look for positives even amongst the many negatives.  After all, it wouldn't be a surprise if it were expected.

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

 Sorry.  Furthest southern extent this year, 39 miles south of Atlanta.  So close.

Lol, ok slushy boy, we'll see.  I may have a luke cold ULL go by around Columbus, like the last two, and get another 4 inches of falling melting snow that will disappear as it nears the ground, because I have Moles that can affect the weather :)  And if that ULL looks like it will form and come this way, you can be sure I'll get the Moles on it, post haste :)  I've yet to have a chance to call them onto a possible this winter, and conjuring up melty snow onto super warm ground would be a great warmup....and if that works, I may set then on to the Falcons games.  Haven't tried that yet :)  T

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

Ok, now THAT is a funny story!!  Well done.  That's why that neighbor likes you, cause you got those mean ol kids to stop shooting bullets off rocks into her yard.  You oughtta take her over some shell casings and remind her how awesome you are! :)

 

That story reminded me of a story about my grandfather and cats.  He was always getting into something with cats.  I could go all day about that.  But in this case, he had just bought a new car and of course, he parked it in his carport.  They had 3 or 4 cats outside.  One, in particular, would hop up on the warm car and get paw prints all over the hood.  Well my grandfather was a fix-it man...could fix anything.  He had every tool and about every item or piece of junk you could imagine.  One of the things he had was a cattle fencer.

 

One day he got an idea on how to stop the cat from making paw prints on his hood.  He went out and ran a wire across the hood of the car, about 6 inches high and hooked it to the box and turned it on.  He sat inside, watching out the window.  Eventually, the cat hopped up on the hood, walked under the wire, tail nice and tall up in the air, and BAM!  That pulse hit and the cat's legs went straight and it ripped a big time MMMMEEEEEOOOOOW!!!!!   That cat took off, but not before winding up like the road-runner legs from the old Bugs Bunny show.  It spun in place for a couple of seconds before it finally got traction and zipped away.  Of course, it left behind huge, long scratches on the hood of his car.  Hahaha!

 

He never had to worry about paw prints anymore. :)

Lol,,  Grand  dad sounds like he was a hoot.  He's lucky that cat didn't crap all over the hood, along with the scratches.  I'd like to hear more about Grand Dad and his kitties :)  Anybody that thinks of strapping a zapper to his car, must have some good stories, lol.  T

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

Fair enough.  I think the system has several items in its favor for my locale:  current track of ULL across central GA and an upward trend on precipitation output from the most recent models, among others.  So, I'll continue to look for positives even amongst the many negatives.  After all, it wouldn't be a surprise if it were expected.

Calc. if I set the moles on it, you're golden :)  But I have to get the thumbs up from Robert first, lol.  T

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strongwxnc

strongwxnc

Posted
Posted

Not sure who will be upset. I feel like my area is in the running. Will I be upset if it does not happen, nope. I also assume most others who follow daily will also not be upset.

 

There is going to be some very upset people after this storm passes. Boundary layer is a huge problem for those expecting snow. I've seen this show before and it doesn't end well.

When I read your post this came to mind :)

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKpnZ7cwWuY

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Stovepipe

Stovepipe

Posted
Posted

The mountains may get something if things come together just right due to some locations being at the 850 MB level at ground level Is what I was trying to say. More power to those expecting snow. I don't see a threat here... As far as ULLs go its not strong and temps are a big problem. This system has too much against it for even a surprise IMO.

 

Honestly, who around here is expecting snow?  It's been pretty obvious for quite some time that only a small geographic area could get lucky on this one.  I've seen some big time expectations on another weather forum, but people around here seem to have expectations in check.  We're just enjoying having something to track for a change.

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rduwx

rduwx

Posted
Posted

Another dreary day. So tireds of this rain. We need some snow! I hope WxSouth's study is correct and we start seeing something soon. It doesn't look like anything but more rain here with the system Thursday and Friday.

You might see some sunshine Thursday afternoon before the next rain event moves in Thursday night and Friday. After that it looks like a cold and dry pattern is coming so you shouldn't have to deal w/ any rain then either.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

You might see some sunshine Thursday afternoon before the next rain event moves in Thursday night and Friday. After that it looks like a cold and dry pattern is coming so you shouldn't have to deal w/ any rain then either.

 

Cold and dry or rain and too warm for snow. This winter is really going to stink if things don't change soon. Maybe this system is just the beginning of some good things to come if things follow WxSouth/Foothill's study. The NAM is actually trying to throw us a bone for the system later this week.

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