January Banter

[Brick Tamland]

Its not gonna snow.

 

It looks less and less likely the closer we get to Friday. What a surprise.

[Cold Rain]

It looks less and less likely the closer we get to Friday. What a surprise.

Lol ...wut?

[Brick Tamland]

Just looking through the Jan discussion thread and it seems the models have backed off the threat for snow around her later this week and even the frigid cold.

[franklin NCwx]

I'm sorry. I didn't know you had to be an expert on the models to post your thoughts about the weather here.

 

Just commenting on what others are saying. That's part of the point of this thread.

Where did I say you have to be an expert? You have told us many times that you don't look at them or understand them. So............ in other words, you are the blind leading the blind?

[Brick Tamland]

Where did I say you have to be an expert? You have told us many times that you don't look at them or understand them. So............ in other words, you are the blind leading the blind?

 

So, I can't comment on what others are saying about them? I'm not trying to lead anyone. I am just commenting on what others are saying about the models. That's kind of the point of message boards. If you don't like it, is it that hard to just ignore it?

[Cold Rain]

So, I can't comment on what others are saying about them? I'm not trying to lead anyone. I am just commenting on what others are saying about the models. That's kind of the point of message boards. If you don't like it, is it that hard to just ignore it?

Comment all you want. You have as much right to post as anyone else does. But when you say something inaccurate, don't expect to not get called on it.

[Brick Tamland]

Comment all you want. You have as much right to post as anyone else does. But when you say something inaccurate, don't expect to not get called on it.

 

I guess those in the Jan thread are inaccurate then. Sometimes it's hard to know what to think because one person says the models look bad and another says there is still a chance. And that reply to me wasn't about being inaccurate, it was about me simply commenting. And there is a nice way to say things. A lot of folks on here just seem to enjoy posting snarky comments.

[franklin NCwx]

So, I can't comment on what others are saying about them? I'm not trying to lead anyone. I am just commenting on what others are saying about the models. That's kind of the point of message boards. If you don't like it, is it that hard to just ignore it?

I never said that you can't comment on it. Like cold rain said comment all you want. But, what is the point of repeating what someone else posted if that is the point you are trying to make? And to your point, I think the people on this board can read the comments from other posters and draw their own conclusion.

[Brick Tamland]

I am just posting my thoughts on what others said. That's pretty much what message boards are about. Just because someone else said it doesn't mean I don't have an opinion or thought on it. It's not really that big of a deal.

[Cold Rain]

I guess those in the Jan thread are inaccurate then. Sometimes it's hard to know what to think because one person says the models look bad and another says there is still a chance. And that reply to me wasn't about being inaccurate, it was about me simply commenting. And there is a nice way to say things. A lot of folks on here just seem to enjoy posting snarky comments.

"It looks less and less likely the closer we get to Friday." THIS is an inaccurate statement. For one thing, the threat really just started showing up, so to declare a real, objective trend in either direction at this point is premature. And second, did you read all of the comments in the Discussion thread? RDU gets snow on several of the latest model runs. That doesn't mean it's going to snow. It doesn't mean it won't snow. It does mean, however, the smart thing would be to reserve judgment until better clarity is shown.

I can't speak for anyone else on this board, but I like you and I think you're a good guy. But just the same, when you post stuff that violates the boundaries of logic and reason, I might call you out on it. And you have the right to do the same to me.

This is a public forum, and if you're going to post, then you also have to accept the risk that if you say something inaccurate, dumb, or repetitive, then you might get served a big plate of snarkiness. I've said stupid stuff and I've gotten snarky comments too. It's all part of the game. But it might be wise to think twice as long before posting something.

[NavarreDon]

Burger's SE members map is looking sweet!....still missing a bunch of people though. Take some time to add your cord. to the map. It's really easy with the links he has & you don't have to be exact with your locale just close.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38174-new-southeast-members-map/

[NGTim]

thought I would post this before next week hits and the warmth is just a memory,  and we are tracking snowstorm after snowstorm, but I noticed the first few days of January, the jonquils sprouting up several inches and a red maple putting out buds.  I haven't paid that much attention to the maple in the past, but I'm pretty sure the jonquils usually don't show up till the first week of Feb at my house.   I guess this is like duh, thats what happens when its warm, but still, pretty unusual to see them that early.  I'm about halfway between ATL and the NC line at around 1450ft. 

[Brick Tamland]

"It looks less and less likely the closer we get to Friday." THIS is an inaccurate statement. For one thing, the threat really just started showing up, so to declare a real, objective trend in either direction at this point is premature. And second, did you read all of the comments in the Discussion thread? RDU gets snow on several of the latest model runs. That doesn't mean it's going to snow. It doesn't mean it won't snow. It does mean, however, the smart thing would be to reserve judgment until better clarity is shown.

I can't speak for anyone else on this board, but I like you and I think you're a good guy. But just the same, when you post stuff that violates the boundaries of logic and reason, I might call you out on it. And you have the right to do the same to me.

This is a public forum, and if you're going to post, then you also have to accept the risk that if you say something inaccurate, dumb, or repetitive, then you might get served a big plate of snarkiness. I've said stupid stuff and I've gotten snarky comments too. It's all part of the game. But it might be wise to think twice as long before posting something.

 

Just my opinion. That's what the banter thread is for. From the latest posts in the Jan thread, I don't think we have a legit shot at snow around here this week.

[Cold Rain]

Just my opinion. That's what the banter thread is for. From the latest posts in the Jan thread, I don't think we have a legit shot at snow around here this week.

I am not excited about our chances, but it's too early to tell IMO....but ok, fair enough.

[Brick Tamland]

I am not excited about our chances, but it's too early to tell IMO....but ok, fair enough.

 

That's cool. But that's different from someone saying why do you post here since you can't read the models yourself.

[NGaWxNerd]

thought I would post this before next week hits and the warmth is just a memory,  and we are tracking snowstorm after snowstorm, but I noticed the first few days of January, the jonquils sprouting up several inches and a red maple putting out buds.  I haven't paid that much attention to the maple in the past, but I'm pretty sure the jonquils usually don't show up till the first week of Feb at my house.   I guess this is like duh, thats what happens when its warm, but still, pretty unusual to see them that early.  I'm about halfway between ATL and the NC line at around 1450ft. 

My blueberry bushes have buds. this is not good. Way too early, and with arctic air, and chaining snow storms on the horizon ...I might not get berries this summer.

[tnweathernut]

Just looking through the Jan discussion thread and it seems the models have backed off the threat for snow around her later this week and even the frigid cold.

 

The Euro still gives you "winter" weather temps for an extended period (one day looks like it even has highs in the 20's for you).  The jury is still out on how this all plays out and we do live in the south, so there are never any guarantees (see last winter)............ The Euro EPS that goes out 16 days only shows warming on it in the last couple of frames (back to average it appears).  until then it's mostly below.

[Brick Tamland]

Allan Huffman's blog for today. Right now he thinks cold rain for Thursday night and Friday around here, and then looks really cold and dry. Boring.

 

http://www.examiner.com/article/colder-pattern-ahead?CID=examiner_alerts_article

[franklin NCwx]

That's cool. But that's different from someone saying why do you post here since you can't read the models yourself.

Would you like to clarify what "grasping at straws again" means? Thanks

[Brick Tamland]

I think the chance of snow around here later this week is far-fetched.

[Bevo]

I think the chance of snow around here later this week is far-fetched.

 

Notice the use of such scientific nomenclature as "far fetched", even though in this example the scientist cannot reasonably explain why it seems "far fetched" to begin with. 

 

But then - the scientist has preemptively exempt himself from the requirement of explanation because his experiments are being conducted in the "Banter" lab, which is a technical score on his part.

 

It's possible that the logical evolution to this "far fetched" conclusion is based out of trial and error - and coming from Brick, can I really ask for more?

 

"No" is the answer.

[Brick Tamland]

Based on last winter and how this winter has gone, it is far-fetched. Until something actually happens, it's going to remain far-fetched. The models have been terrible with the long range. Granted, something does look interesting for later this week, but so far things still look more likely that I will not see snow. 

[NGaWxNerd]

Well, as I have stated before, I can't post in the discussion thread because I'm just not on that level, but, I have been watching current maps and temps and am concerned that the ice threat is going to extend to N AL and perhaps NW corner of GA for tonight. Huntsville is sitting in the mid 30's now and I'm in the mid 60's. I think the cold air is faster and further east than what we thought for this first system which could fair us all well for Thurs/Fri. JMO while I am seriously trying to learn and contribute intelligently in between my bouts of BS.

[Bevo]

Based on last winter and how this winter has gone, it is far-fetched. Until something actually happens, it's going to remain far-fetched. The models have been terrible with the long range. Granted, something does look interesting for later this week, but so far things still look more likely that I will not see snow. 

 

Gah Brick!  I said you scored a technicality - take it as a badge of honor.

 

And I'm willing to even call that bold statement an act of trial and error.

[Cold Rain]

Gah Brick! I said you scored a technicality - take it as a badge of honor.

And I'm willing to even call that bold statement an act of trial and error.

I'd say more error in this case, but oh well.

[Bevo]

I'd say more error in this case, but oh well.

 

Flies and honey CR...flies and honey.

[Brick Tamland]

Sounds like WxSouth/Foothills thinks we might be right on the line with this, which is usually the case around here.

 

  

 

A look at the QPF charts for the Thursday , into early Friday system. Keep in mind those snow maps don't capture warm ground and the mid levels which sometimes are warm east of the southern Apps region, so I don't trust looking at those yet. The QPF is much more reliable...and this is quite a wet system. It taps the Gulf nicely, thanks to holding in tact at 5H much longer, and stronger....so rain... will blossom quickly as it reaches Mississippi, spreading across Alabama and Georgia by dark, then colder air is working in from TN, NC , so once the moisture gets into SC and NC, it could switch to snow. The dynamics and track on this run would hit extreme northeast GA mountains with a decent snowfall, stretching across the Interstate 85 corridor possibly if the temps can drop low enough with dynamic cooling. Too far out to say yet. IF the moisture pulls a little more north into NC, (notice the 1.25" rain totals in GA, SC) then this would turn into a really heavy wet snowfall for much of NC, but again, it's too far out to bank on, and the cold air is really, really lacking with this system. A couple degrees either way would make a huge difference.

 

[Brick Tamland]

I guess an inch of snow is better than nothing.

 

 

 

[Cold Rain]

Flies and honey CR...flies and honey.

Buzz buzz

[burgertime]

OK CR if the Euro says this is still game on. Start the thread or I'll be forced to.