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January Banter


WilkesboroDude

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<blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="WilkesboroDude" data-cid="1976835" data-time="1357101712"><p>

If we can get half the widespread event Mexico is getting come later this winter I will be okay. Winter Storm Watches posted in Texas.<br />

<br />

<span rel='lightbox'><img src='http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2013/01/01/18/GFS_3_2013010118_F66_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png' alt='Posted Image' class='bbc_img' /></span></p></blockquote>

Lol your kidding about the WSW in Texas?

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Why must WilkesboroDude post every single thread? I've always enjoyed reading people's thread introductions and then he comes along and starts posting threads with 2 images and no text. I don't have a problem with him starting a few, but seeing him create every freaking one is just annoying. :banned:

 

 

/rant

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Why must WilkesboroDude post every single thread? I've always enjoyed reading people's thread introductions and then he comes along and starts posting threads with 2 images and no text. I don't have a problem with him starting a few, but seeing him create every freaking one is just annoying. :banned:

 

 

/rant

 

Be glad you don't have to see him post on facebook as well.  :axe:

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Unfortunately it probably won't.  I had sleet and a few flakes fall this past week (upstate SC) - plus I've enjoyed the rain and cool temps.  But that is discarded.

 

And Calc...you don't need an ally.  There's no reason to fear the reapers roaming these forums.

 

No fear.  It's just more fun to stand with others than on an island all by yourself.  But, it looks like you and strongwx, at least, have a similar take on the winter so far.  We keep pressing onward...

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From Allan Huffman's blog today.

 

 

A cold weather pattern appears on tap for much of central and western Canada, as well as the US West, Rockies, and High Plains, This occurs as we see an amplification of ridging in the NE Pacific and into Alaska which helps carve out a deep trough across the western half of North America and a strong ridge across the eastern US where it appears a warmer than normal pattern is setting up for January.

It is becoming clear that my cold winter forecast for the eastern US is going to bust. December was one of the warmest December’s on record particularly from an energy perspective and January although getting off to a much cooler start is heading towards a warm pattern for the East by next week. It appears that the combo of a neutral ENSO, -PDO, and +AMO which is usually a warm one for the East may win this winter season. My flaw was thinking an El Nino was coming, despite the early fall data that it was in jeopardy, and also because of that thinking the PDO was going to rise to neutral. I am not throwing in the towel on any extended cold weather for the East just year, the MJO may reach the colder phases by late in January and February but the lack of an El Nino and the difficulty in getting cold air into the East even with the very negative AO in December are warning signs to abandon the ship of any cold winter forecast for the eastern US.

As mentioned earlier, it does look cold for the West/Plains but there is no evidence yet of a driver to get this into the eastern US. That may change in a few weeks but probably not before 1/20 or so.

 

jump-off-cliff.jpg

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looks like a long warm with no snow winter to me other than the little bit of ice or snow flurries.  its like pulling teeth to get a snow storm in the NC Mtns.  when I was growing up in the 50's and 60's we had snow in Asheville NC all winter long it seemed like.  School was closed the whole month of February I think like 1962 or 1963.  This is unbelieavable with not any snow storm to track in the future.

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<blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="Brick Tamland" data-cid="1977125" data-time="1357140206"><p>

Do people really think it's easier for the models to get a snow storm right 10 days out in the southeast versus a warm up? That doesn't even make common sense to me.</p></blockquote>

Are you asking what's easier for the model to show or what's likely to be more accurate?

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