SACRUS Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 http://arstechnica.c...dys-path-first/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FL510 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Thanks for sharing the link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 No read about why the GFS saw Debbie first and why the euro forecast for Debbie scared tons of people on oil and gas refineries for nothing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 30, 2012 Author Share Posted December 30, 2012 No read about why the GFS saw Debbie first and why the euro forecast for Debbie scared tons of people on oil and gas refineries for nothing? There's a brief mention "Still, some in the US couldn’t help but wonder why the European model beat its American counterpart to the punch in predicting Sandy’s landward turn. Did it get lucky or is it a superior model? While it doesn’t always beat the competition (it got 2012’s Tropical Storm Debby wrong, for example), most scientists agree that the European model holds a clear advantage. Sandy just brought that fact before the public eye." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 There's a brief mention "Still, some in the US couldn’t help but wonder why the European model beat its American counterpart to the punch in predicting Sandy’s landward turn. Did it get lucky or is it a superior model? While it doesn’t always beat the competition (it got 2012’s Tropical Storm Debby wrong, for example), most scientists agree that the European model holds a clear advantage. Sandy just brought that fact before the public eye." Because Sandy hit the center of the universe (NYC) it got a ton of attention. Nobody cared about Debbie because it was garbage, but the euro was ready to halt oil and gas production. Sandy just happened to hit the mostly densely populated area of the US and the euro had the correct forecast days out. I like the euro too...but there are some out there who pig pile on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 I think it was more a physics issue than resolution and initial conditions. The Euro likes to overdo ridging to the northeast of tropical cyclones. GFS tends to underdo it. The end result was GFS was 3000 miles too far east while the Euro was 30 miles too far south. Yeah this scenario was much nicer to the model that overdid the ridging. Debbie on the other hand was not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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