The First Week of Jan..Bitter cold,Balls drop as we ring in 2013

[Damage In Tolland]

Might get those flurries snowshowers tonight as the ball drops, hope so at least........light icing event across eastern new england in the heart of winter at day 8 is pretty boring lol.

But you gave us an alert message of 1 inch for all of SNE earlier

[Damage In Tolland]

I now have a green star under my name

[Baroclinic Zone]

I now have a green star under my name

But no green for your name.

[ORH_wxman]

You can never really rule any storminess out beyond 4 or 5 days...but it doesn't look great right now. Smaller systems could happen as those would be unlikely to be modeled well out in the medium to LR.

[Mr Torchey]

But you gave us an alert message of 1 inch for all of SNE earlier

Thats after I read your alert for balls to the walls cold January start to finish stay the course no knee jerk reactions.......then I read Will's and Scooter's thoughts as well as Donny Baseballs:( Happy New Year Blizzie, lets hope for a surprise, if not we look ahead to late Jan and Feb

[Damage In Tolland]

But no green for your name.

Will be red shortly

[Baroclinic Zone]

Will be red shortly

Phoenix University degreed MET?

[cycloneslurry]

No need to get all upset...it's not like people have had much success with any other mid-range predictions in recent memory. No one in late October was calling for a well below month...then the consensus was for a cold december that just kept getting pushed back until many threatened to "punt" the rest of the month only to end up with above normal snowfall. There is no middle ground on this board anymore...we are seemingly always either heading into a" deep freeze with multiple snow chances"...or "weeks and weeks or boring" and the just kind of gets old to read after a while.

[Sugarloaf1989]

Happy New Year to all.

[ORH_wxman]

No need to get all upset...it's not like people have had much success with any other mid-range predictions in recent memory. No one in late October was calling for a well below month...then the consensus was for a cold december that just kept getting pushed back until many threatened to "punt" the rest of the month only to end up with above normal snowfall. There is no middle ground on this board anymore...we are seemingly always either heading into a" deep freeze with multiple snow chances"...or "weeks and weeks or boring" and the just kind of gets old to read after a while.

Kind of reminded me of this post:

DONE TILL JANUARY...5 CONSECUTIVE METEOROLOGICAL WINTER MONTH IN BOSTON WITHOUT AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW.

FEB 11

DEC 11

JAN 12

FEB 12

DEC 12

JAN 13?

[SouthCoastMA]

Well played sir ^

[CoastalWx]

No need to get all upset...it's not like people have had much success with any other mid-range predictions in recent memory. No one in late October was calling for a well below month...then the consensus was for a cold december that just kept getting pushed back until many threatened to "punt" the rest of the month only to end up with above normal snowfall. There is no middle ground on this board anymore...we are seemingly always either heading into a" deep freeze with multiple snow chances"...or "weeks and weeks or boring" and the just kind of gets old to read after a while.

Those are monthly predictions. I think the 11-15 day is going to be mild. Nobody wants to hear it, but there are a lot of signs going that way I think. You can hang your hat on some boundary hanging south of us...but the whole look of the pattern is ugly to me.

[weathafella]

I now have a green star under my name

I like the black star better.

[nzucker]

Those are monthly predictions. I think the 11-15 day is going to be mild. Nobody wants to hear it, but there are a lot of signs going that way I think. You can hang your hat on some boundary hanging south of us...but the whole look of the pattern is ugly to me.

The pattern looks horrible with the vortex drifting towards NW Canada and fast flow on the Atlantic side with a predominantly +NAO. Definitely a recipe for a strong southeast ridge until the sudden stratospheric warming shuffles things around...

[CoastalWx]

The pattern looks horrible with the vortex drifting towards NW Canada and fast flow on the Atlantic side with a predominantly +NAO. Definitely a recipe for a strong southeast ridge until the sudden stratospheric warming shuffles things around...

They'll probably be some NNE deals, just not sure that we stay on the good side of any boundary.

[ravensrule]

I like the black star better.

That's because it's the Randy package, we should all be so lucky to have that package.

[ORH_wxman]

They'll probably be some NNE deals, just not sure that we stay on the good side of any boundary.

Hopefully we stay marginally cold for any systems. Kind of like MLK 2010...that was a putrid pattern but we managed a decent storm for part of the area and also got an epic Kevin meltdown as a bonus.

[Ginx snewx]

Maybe it will get warm or maybe it will not. Maybe we are on the right side of the gradient, maybe not. Maybe a wave forms, maybe not. Could be boring, could be not. Going out on limb.

[CoastalWx]

Maybe it will get warm or maybe it will not. Maybe we are on the right side of the gradient, maybe not. Maybe a wave forms, maybe not. Could be boring, could be not. Going out on limb.

I thought I did, other than the caveat mentioned, the overall look seems rather ugly. I can't see the minor details of a front being 50 miles far enough south to give a wintry event obviously..just don't like the look...the 11-15th that is. The front looks real close by...I will say that.

[powderfreak]

Kind of reminded me of this post:

He missed it by like 48 hours, lol.

[powderfreak]

Honestly the stuff in the long range doesn't look that bad on the models. I usually disagree with Kev and Sultan's always cold progs in these situations, but I think they've got the right idea. I'll probably get burned by this, but I mean, having the H85 temps near 0C for a couple days this time of year isn't exactly that warm. Usually we aren't getting much mixing and you can have 36F at the sfc and 30-32F at H85. I've really noticed over the last 7-10 days that the temperature differences with elevation aren't nearly as big as they are at other times of the year. A couple days of upper 30s isn't that uncommon as a pattern relaxes. Maybe something where PA/NY semi-torch but east of the Greens/Berks/Taconics its quite muted...the type of set-up where TOL sees lower maxes than BTV for a couple days.

As long as we avoid a storm where its like 50/45 and raining... it looks like most of us that have a solid snowpack now hold onto this for quite some time.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Good sledding wx at least

[Ginx snewx]

I thought I did, other than the caveat mentioned, the overall look seems rather ugly. I can't see the minor details of a front being 50 miles far enough south to give a wintry event obviously..just don't like the look...the 11-15th that is. The front looks real close by...I will say that.

nothing against you at all, my new forecast method, the KNOFAIL. until the new moon in two weeks enjoy the zzzzzzzzz.

[powderfreak]

nothing against you at all, my new forecast method, the KNOFAIL. until the new moon in two weeks enjoy the zzzzzzzzz.

I see a couple potential WINDEX situations over the next 7-14 days. Tonight doesn't quite meet criteria, but could be some good squalls with that arctic front.

[Ginx snewx]

Honestly the stuff in the long range doesn't look that bad on the models. I usually disagree with Kev and Sultan's always cold progs in these situations, but I think they've got the right idea. I'll probably get burned by this, but I mean, having the H85 temps near 0C for a couple days this time of year isn't exactly that warm. Usually we aren't getting much mixing and you can have 36F at the sfc and 30-32F at H85. I've really noticed over the last 7-10 days that the temperature differences with elevation aren't nearly as big as they are at other times of the year. A couple days of upper 30s isn't that uncommon as a pattern relaxes. Maybe something where PA/NY semi-torch but east of the Greens/Berks/Taconics its quite muted...the type of set-up where TOL sees lower maxes than BTV for a couple days.

As long as we avoid a storm where its like 50/45 and raining... it looks like most of us that have a solid snowpack now hold onto this for quite some time.

Link to my always cold? I think I said 4 times including last week we would be in for a thaw. Reading comprehension.

[Damage In Tolland]

Hopefully we stay marginally cold for any systems. Kind of like MLK 2010...that was a putrid pattern but we managed a decent storm for part of the area and also got an epic Kevin meltdown as a bonus.

Yeah we're fine..All these posts about torch and warmth seem a little foolish. Ensembles drape it just south of us.

I haven't had a meltdown since that one..so I am overdue for one..but it won't be this winter. With deep snowpack and deep cold

[weathafella]

Yeah at least for the next week or so nice winter wx...not too bone chilling but cold enough with nice snow otg. I'm planning on possibly snow shoeing tomorrow from Cutler Park in Newton to Millenium in W Roxbury and back. Failing that, a nice 4 mile romp through the woods as that is less labor or time intensive if I get up too late...lol.

[Ginx snewx]

I see a couple potential WINDEX situations over the next 7-14 days. Tonight doesn't quite meet criteria, but could be some good squalls with that arctic front.

KNOFAIL does not recognize Windex, ULL,SSW,AO,NAO or ANALOGS.

[powderfreak]

Link to my always cold? I think I said 4 times including last week we would be in for a thaw. Reading comprehension.

Haha must be reading comprehension fail. I've just been reading several posts calling folks Debbies for talking about a thaw.

You usually lean optimistically cold...no?

[weathafella]

Yeah we're fine..All these posts about torch and warmth seem a little foolish. Ensembles drape it just south of us.

I haven't had a meltdown since that one..so I am overdue for one..but it won't be this winter. With deep snowpack and deep cold

To be fair you had an epic meltdown last winter yelling at Jeff up in LA (Maine version). You told Zeus to eat a d'ck and his comeback was the best ever when he said "if I do will you shut up?" Or something like that. We mall melt in these awful patterns.