Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

The First Week of Jan..Bitter cold,Balls drop as we ring in 2013

Damage In Tolland

By Damage In Tolland,
in New England

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
BowMeHunter

BowMeHunter

Posted
Posted

Well again in the north where its cold that doesn't happen. Typically it snows its cold after a storm and we play in it and enjoy looking at it. Our snow doesn't turn slushy or black. We use salt not tar to clear the roads

 

With the snow pack soon to be nuked.. will you let your daughters play and enjoy the rest of the front yard or will you demand they don't step foot off of the sledding walking path?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted

This is kind of what Phil has been hinting at for a bit with a protracted period of the more mild weather.  We'll have to see how it breaks long term, but we are going to get at least 7 days of unseasonable departures, maybe as many as 10-15.

 

 

I haven't calculated it for SNE stations, but for NYC, I calculated a +75 to +80 departure for this Sunday to next Sunday, based off the euro.

I'm pretty sure it's similar to worse for a lot of SNE, based off the anomaly maps.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Well just like we hope the Canadian is wrong, we can hope the Ukie is right. Torch fail on that model...leaves the southern energy behind and sends a chilly high over us next week. That would be kind of funny after bracing for a cutter .

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Euro caved to GFS. Frigid coming MLK weekend.

 

We go right back into the same type of scenario after this warm spell, the gradient will be somewhere between CNE and NJ with the cold air along and north of it.  We're going to have more shots starting around the 18th +/- a few days.

 

Very seasonable, slightly below here today.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
weatherMA

weatherMA

Posted
Posted

Well just like we hope the Canadian is wrong, we can hope the Ukie is right. Torch fail on that model...leaves the southern energy behind and sends a chilly high over us next week. That would be kind of funny after bracing for a cutter .

Look what you did Will...look what you did :lmao: :lmao:

 

 
 

Ukie says what torch next week. Sends cold HP overhead most of next week

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

I haven't calculated it for SNE stations, but for NYC, I calculated a +75 to +80 departure for this Sunday to next Sunday, based off the euro.

I'm pretty sure it's similar to worse for a lot of SNE, based off the anomaly maps.

 

Based on strictly 850 anomalies you are doing temp anomalies? good luck

Link to comment
Share on other sites
SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

Well just like we hope the Canadian is wrong, we can hope the Ukie is right. Torch fail on that model...leaves the southern energy behind and sends a chilly high over us next week. That would be kind of funny after bracing for a cutter .

 

The cutter though may be helpful in getting that trough to the East faster, without the cutter we're relying more on that lazy Plains high to ooze southeast and push that temp gradient and SE ridge off the East Coast.  One thing I would watch for though which adds fuel to your statement is for that SE ridge the Euro shows at Day 8-10 to get beaten down more than it currently shows because a -NAO signature is somewhat evident by 180 hours and on nosing into eastern Greenland.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

Some of us like to snow shoe out the back of our property through the woods  to a local nature sanctuary. :)  I had a great two mile snow shoe today. Looks like things might be wrecked after Tuesday...even if we maintain some corroded old snow pack it won't be worth much until we get fresh powder.

 

 

snow on the ground is annoying after the storm ends. Its only really fun right before the starts and during the event and a few hours after when the snow is still pure.

 

once its off the trees..slushy....and black.... who cares?

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

MLK weekend always brings back fond memories. Good weenie weekend. Phil, Ji is a computer snow guy, likes to watch it fall out the window. 

 

MLK will always bring back memories of Kevin's epic meltdown in 2010. I posted pics of heavy snow falling with quarter sized flakes and 10" of paste stuck to everything and Kevin just lost it while he was 34F with downpours.

 

 

I recall 1998 had a very nice event on MLK weekend. That was basically our last good snow event that winter, Feb 1998 was an epic fail with torching rainstorms...up to that point we had done pretty well.

 

2009 we had the back to back snow events...the 2nd of which was a bust in the positive direction. No advisories out and we got 4-6"...I remember Ekster saying he walked into the office that evening, and realized about an hour later that the radar was exploding to the south and that advisories had to be rushed out, lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted

Based on strictly 850 anomalies you are doing temp anomalies? good luck

 

I did not say that. For NYC, I calculated anomalies based off the actual euro soundings.

I'm assuming and am almost positive that it will look similar for most of SNE, just based off the anomaly maps.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
  • Author
Posted

MLK will always bring back memories of Kevin's epic meltdown in 2010. I posted pics of heavy snow falling with quarter sized flakes and 10" of paste stuck to everything and Kevin just lost it while he was 34F with downpours.

I recall 1998 had a very nice event on MLK weekend. That was basically our last good snow event that winter, Feb 1998 was an epic fail with torching rainstorms...up to that point we had done pretty well.

2009 we had the back to back snow events...the 2nd of which was a bust in the positive direction. No advisories out and we got 4-6"...I remember Ekster saying he walked into the office that evening, and realized about an hour later that the radar was exploding to the south and that advisories had to be rushed out, lol.

Lol what set me off was when I saw you and Megan prancing thru knee deep snow and laughing and giggling while I was rain and 33. Irate doesn't describe me that day
Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I did not say that. For NYC, I calculated anomalies based off the actual euro soundings.

I'm assuming and am almost positive that it will look similar for most of SNE, just based off the anomaly maps.

 

I think he is asking what maps you are talking about...850 temp anomaly maps?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted

I think he is asking what maps you are talking about...850 temp anomaly maps?

 

 

Has nothing to do with caculating anomalies. Im going strictly off exact text soundings.

Tell me the average high and low for Boston for next week, and I'll calculate the anomaly.

For NYC, it's +75 to +80 range.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted

Soundings as in, top to bottom temp profiles?

 

 

Anomalies are high and low/divided by 2.

It's a simple calculation.

Tell me what Boston's average high and low is for next week, and I'll calculate what the euro text soundings have for that period. I can look at skew-ts as well to verify surface temps.

I bet its similar to the NYC anomaly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Has nothing to do with caculating anomalies. Im going strictly off exact text soundings.

Tell me the average high and low for Boston for next week, and I'll calculate the anomaly.

For NYC, it's +75 to +80 range.

 

 

Well you said "based off the anomaly maps" in the original post I quoted from you. Go back and read it.

 

 

What you are doing is using 2m temps on the Euro text data. I assume you use the 18z 2m temp each day through next Sunday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Well just like we hope the Canadian is wrong, we can hope the Ukie is right. Torch fail on that model...leaves the southern energy behind and sends a chilly high over us next week. That would be kind of funny after bracing for a cutter .

 

Yeah... I was looking over this UKMET run from the 50,000 foot view and comparing to the others...  

 

It seems to me the handling of the heights up over Greenland (NAO domain) is handled handled differently among the models.   The operational GFS seemed to carry more of a negative NAO complexion over that region (mid level heights) over the last several cycles - thus it has the exit latitude of the flow a bit S of the GGEM and ECMWF.  This run of the UKMET seems sympathetic to the GFS run in that regard...

 

The difference is huge sensibly... The GGEM would offer an Arklotex to Lake Superior bomb at D8 that would drill 65dp air to Boston if the run went out any further - I desperately doubt that has any hope of coming to success.    

 

This has actually been going on for several cycles now, and whenever the heights up there are bulged more positive, we get a semblance of a pinched off warm anomaly and quicker return to cooler regime.  Hard to say which is right - but my "hunch" is to go against the more exotic positive departures.  There are clad Met reasons for taking that measure.

 

For one, the seasonal trend/tendency has demonstrated -EPO/-AO/-NAO as the preferred base-line *(return to -) state.  

For 2nd, the last 3 nights in a row of CPC AO derivations:  although the spread is still there (lending to some uncertainty...) the majority of the members are negative again by D7 and falling.  Also, the mean of the spread has been steadily declining, too.  In fact, now looking at the D8-10 ECMWF/GFS means over at the PSU freebie, there's a James Bay PV with height bridge over the NP - that's a -AO, period.      

 

Despite the Pacific signals, it's going to be increasingly more difficult for a warm signal to over come a -EPO/-AO/-NAO bully from the North, but we'll see. It' can't stay 20/7  for highs and lows anyway, so it's gotta warm up, but I have my doubts that it goes as crazy as the extended GGEM/Euro.  BTW, both these latter guidance types were too far west with the mean polar boundary position prior to the 2 bigger recent events and the overall cooler profile of the 7 day period that transpired.  If we are embedded in a pattern that might promote exposing a westerly bias in those two models - 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted

Well you said "based off the anomaly maps" in the original post I quoted from you. Go back and read it.

 

 

What you are doing is using 2m temps on the Euro text data. I assume you use the 18z 2m temp each day through next Sunday.

 

LOL. Forget it.

It's obviously not going to be exact since the low temp can be in between 6z and 12z and the high temp can be in between 12z and 18z or 18z to 0z.

 

All I said is that if I'm calculating a +75 to +80 temp anomaly for NYC, Im almost positive it will look the same for Boston and a lot of SNE.

It's not a jab, just the truth.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

LOL. Forget it.

It's obviously not going to be exact since the low temp can be in between 6z and 12z and the high temp can be in between 12z and 18z or 18z to 0z.

 

All I said is that if I'm calculating a +75 to +80 temp anomaly for NYC, Im almost positive it will look the same for Boston and a lot of SNE.

It's not a jab, just the truth.

 

Yes, and you said "based off the anomaly maps"...we were asking what anomaly maps you were talking about? Unless you didn't mean to say that, then just say so.

 

Who said it was a jab? I don't take weather personally. No need to manufacture conflict where there is none.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

LOL. Forget it.

It's obviously not going to be exact since the low temp can be in between 6z and 12z and the high temp can be in between 12z and 18z or 18z to 0z.

 

All I said is that if I'm calculating a +75 to +80 temp anomaly for NYC, Im almost positive it will look the same for Boston and a lot of SNE.

It's not a jab, just the truth.

 I highly doubt anyone took it as a jab, just trying to figure out what you were using, methodology

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted

Yes, and you said "based off the anomaly maps"...we were asking what anomaly maps you were talking about? Unless you didn't mean to say that, then just say so.

 

Who said it was a jab? I don't take weather personally. No need to manufacture conflict where there is none.

 

I said based off the anomaly maps (at the 850 level), which show the highest 850 temp positive departures over SNE, I would assume and likely be correct that the actual anomaly of +75 that I calculated for NYC, would be the same for BOS and a lot of SNE.

 

Give me the average high and low for BOS for next week, and I can quickly calculate it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...