The First Week of Jan..Bitter cold,Balls drop as we ring in 2013

[mahk_webstah]

Victory? Its just weather, you seem to be taking this way too seriously. Your climate is much different than most others, and your climo is much colder, therefore your threshold for above normal is much lower, what your personal opinion of whats warm or not really does not matter, nor does mine.

The numbers never lie. We all want snow and lots of it, hopefully things look better towards the second half of the month.

 

LL I am not being serious, I think you are misinterpreting me.   The basic discussion debate was about how warm is will really get, how long it will last....and what will possibly happen that is not obvious on models.  I am in the camp that this is a run of the mill milder period that could be brief and undercut by cold air from the north.  I also think we may get some accumulating snow up here during the next 10 days.  Some were talking or implying by there tone, a more extreme warm up.  If we are non-mets calling for a more muted warm, then we are weenies.  It's okay...it is kind of funny actually.

[Damage In Tolland]

We are almost certain to crack 50 at least one day here...whether its more like 3 days remains to be seen. Better hope the Canadian isn't right. That would be ugly for like 3-4 days. 00z Euro is probably best case scenario...a quick 12 hour hit of 50+ as the second cutter goes west while the first one is just a big CAD-fest.

Yeah I don't think a flirt with 50 ahead of a fropa/ cutter is unreasonable. We've always had that.

[mahk_webstah]

7 days above normal. AWT.

 

+1 can be above normal.

You were screaming and moaning yesterday like a Debbie on an acid trip seeing visions of flames and weenies being boiled in the melting snow.

[Mr Torchey]

LL I am not being serious, I think you are misinterpreting me.   The basic discussion debate was about how warm is will really get, how long it will last....and what will possibly happen that is not obvious on models.  I am in the camp that this is a run of the mill milder period that could be brief and undercut by cold air from the north.  I also think we may get some accumulating snow up here during the next 10 days.  Some were talking or implying by there tone, a more extreme warm up.  If we are non-mets calling for a more muted warm, then we are weenies.  It's okay...it is kind of funny actually.

I certainly am not throwing up any numbers here or in the thread I started, I never said people won't get snow, so I do not know who you are talking about.  I do find it interesting that people have lost site of climo this time of year, and also that this is a very normal occurrence to have a thaw, multiple times a winter.  Hopefully these heavier rain events do not materialize, its dreadfully  boring starting next week, quick and painless would be great.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah I don't think a flirt with 50 ahead of a fropa/ cutter is unreasonable. We've always had that.

 

 

 

I think its more than a flirt..more like 10-12 hours of ripping southerlies with high dews...that is likely unavoidable at some point. If its limited to just that, a lot of us will probably come out with still some snow pack....if we get multiple days of fairly strong boundary layer flow from the SW and temps cracking 50F, then forget it.

 

 

 

I personally think its pretty fruitless to try and pin down any details of this torch right now, because we have no idea how the first storm is going to act in terms of CAD...and the 2nd storm is in clown range.

 

 

In the meantime, we are pretty good through Tuesday...and there's plenty of positive signs after D10.

[CT Rain]

Sunday and Monday will be? After that 100% agree. Snow will be wiped out with those temps!

 

Again I think you have a fundamental misunderstanding/confusion of climatology.

 

The average low/high at BDL is 18/34. That's +3 on Sunday and +2.5 Saturday on that forecast. It's certainly possible Monday is colder but you agreed with that 7 day forecast and it shows AN temps for the next 7. 

[weatherMA]

+1 can be above normal.

You were screaming and moaning yesterday like a Debbie on an acid trip seeing visions of flames and weenies being boiled in the melting snow.

 

lol

[Ginx snewx]

sun/mon should be relatively wintry days...at least mon over E areas with that slight trough and some low level NE flow and incoming cold. whether its enough to produce more than just flurries i'm not sure.

yep

[CT Rain]

+1 can be above normal.

You were screaming and moaning yesterday like a Debbie on an acid trip seeing visions of flames and weenies being boiled in the melting snow.

 

Huh? The next 10 days don't look good. There's no other way around that.

 

Beyond that I feel pretty good... especially post-D15. 

[Typhoon Tip]

This would be nasty and a snowcover screwjob for many.  Hopefully it trends east 

 

 

Looking at the various pressure level outputs for that particular run, while not snowing, that is not a warm penetrating system - period. 

 

In fact, the 12 hour chart prior to that image shows a clear warm boundary still S of LI, and some vestigial albeit week +PP N of the area, that screams triple pointing underneath much of SNE with a slab of saturated 35F air not really snow eating as all that.

 

It seems to me, if one is going to be involved with the form they need to understand that it is not about analytics of the pattern and outputs;  it's about whether it's cold while snowing, and if not, using any chart that looks opposing to dash the hopes and dreams of others - haha  

[mahk_webstah]

I certainly am not throwing up any numbers here or in the thread I started, I never said people won't get snow, so I do not know who you are talking about.  I do find it interesting that people have lost site of climo this time of year, and also that this is a very normal occurrence to have a thaw, multiple times a winter.  Hopefully these heavier rain events do not materialize, its dreadfully  boring starting next week, quick and painless would be great.

 

I wasn't talking about you at all...I agree with quick and painless.  We will get there stay the course.

 

"Delayed but not deep fried"  (this should be the name of our mild up thread)

[weatherMA]

Reading this forum is hilarious. I am at above normal snow to date (21"), and have had 3"+ snowpack for almost 10 days now. I will probably lose most/all of my snow next week and as much as I'd rather keep it, it's not really that common to keep snowpack all winter at 475' at 42N. 10/11 was an exception.

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Again I think you have a fundamental misunderstanding/confusion of climatology.

The average low/high at BDL is 18/34. That's +3 on Sunday and +2.5 Saturday on that forecast. It's certainly possible Monday is colder but you agreed with that 7 day forecast and it shows AN temps for the next 7.

Ive said/ thought all along its an above normal week. Why is that hard to grasp? My opinion has always been and I posted it every which way but loose that we'd see temps in the 40ish range . I've also allowed for a flirt/ few hours of higher if a storm cuts. The behavior twds me and other respected posters by a few normally respectful members has been both alarming and disheartening.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

It really gets rough when we don't have storms to track doesn't it?

[Mr Torchey]

euro still only a trace for sunday, or a little more?

[Typhoon Tip]

Reading this forum is hilarious. I am at above normal snow to date (21"), and have had 3"+ snowpack for almost 10 days now. I will probably lose most/all of my snow next week and as much as I'd rather keep it, it's not really that common to keep snowpack all winter at 475' at 42N. 10/11 was an exception.

 

Careful - such cool calm collected rational reflection on circumstances is liable to get you in trouble in this Idiocrasy.  

 

Good movie actually...   

[ORH_wxman]

Reading this forum is hilarious. I am at above normal snow to date (21"), and have had 3"+ snowpack for almost 10 days now. I will probably lose most/all of my snow next week and as much as I'd rather keep it, it's not really that common to keep snowpack all winter at 475' at 42N. 10/11 was an exception.

 

 

 

Trust me, it never used to be this obsessive over a torch in the winter. We had the mother of torches with deep snow pack in January 2008 and it didn't receive half the play that this thing is getting. I lost over 20" of high water content snow pack in 4 days during that January 2008 system. Vanished.

 

No biggie though, we got a big storm right after it ended and we built up the snow again despite no real cold temps the rest of that month.

 

The temps departures have become somewhat obsessive it seems. I don't recall the obsession over them back when we had the -5 to -6 January 2009 over portions of NE. We just tracked the snow events.

 

But different strokes for different folks. Hopefully we'll have something interesting to track by this time next week.

[Mr Torchey]

Beautiful mid winter day across sne, cold and brisk but not too cold.

[mahk_webstah]

Could the GFS be any more horrific?

 

 

Ugh the Euro stays the course. What a disaster. 

 

 

Bring on the torch....may as well without snow

 

 

Jesus just devastating. That is an awful pattern. 

 

 

+35 on high temps...so the EURO shows upper 60s to 70 up here? lol

 

 

its an epic torch, maybe 60s into SNE.

 

 

We're really hoping at this point that the coming mild pattern can turn into a SWFE kind of pattern beyond D10 or D11. If we flip to the wrong side of the boundary post D11 we could really start tying the nooses. 

 

 

The pattern is certainly WAY better than at any point last year. It seems pretty likely that D6-D10 will be above normal and possibly significantly so. I'm not sure what Kevin is looking at... as every signal points to this.

 

Moving past D10 we do have some cold to our west so it will be a matter of where the storm track sets up. It's certainly possible D11-D15 turns ugly but it's also possible inland areas especially have some fun with a SWFE or 2. 

Here are your comments...that document your descent in Debbie-land (along with a couple from others)...but then we see your recovery at the end.

[weatherMA]

Trust me, it never used to be this obsessive over a torch in the winter. We had the mother of torches with deep snow pack in January 2008 and it didn't receive half the play that this thing is getting. I lost over 20" of high water content snow pack in 4 days during that January 2008 system. Vanished.

 

No biggie though, we got a big storm right after it ended and we built up the snow again despite no real cold temps the rest of that month.

 

The temps departures have become somewhat obsessive it seems. I don't recall the obsession over them back when we had the -5 to -6 January 2009 over portions of NE. We just tracked the snow events.

 

But different strokes for different folks. Hopefully we'll have something interesting to track by this time next week.

 

For sure. I mean, of course I'd rather keep the snowpack but that's unrealistic for where I live. Up in NNE most/all areas should be fine. 

[CT Rain]

Here are your comments...that document your descent in Debbie-land (along with a couple from others)...but then we see your recovery at the end.

 

Yes, thank you for taking the time to bump them.

 

Those comments were about the SPECIFIC run that was coming out. Those model runs were disasters for people who want a snowstorm. There's really no denying that. If we can't post about a model run unless it's cold and snowy then that's a problem. It's too bad the weenies are only able to handle news that is good for them. 

[ORH_wxman]

For sure. I mean, of course I'd rather keep the snowpack but that's unrealistic for where I live. Up in NNE most/all areas should be fine. 

 

Yeah its hard to keep it the whole time even up where I am higher up on the north side. I usually will melt it out at least a couple times per winter. Went wire to wire though with 2010-2011...but as you said, that is the exception and not the rule. 2007-2008 we melted out in January during that terrible torch...and then melted out at least about halfway in early February before recovering with a snow to ice event, and then 2 decent snow events and a couple minor ones before we were basically done in early March.

 

'00-'01 was epic...that went wire to wire until April, lol. '02-'03 was pretty darn good too. Not much melt out in that winter. '04-'05 had some warm spells where we tried to melt out in February at times, but we never did. Might have seen some bare patches down where you live though...that type of pattern.

 

Hell even 1995-1996 had the epic mother torch period that turned 45" of snow pack into about 8" of concrete...and it completely melted out on the CP. Almost every winter has them.

 

 

But we certainly are in no position to complain right now. I have over 26" of snow on the season so I can certainly withstand a snowless period here. Maybe we'll even get an inch on Sunday morning if lucky.

[mahk_webstah]

Yes, thank you for taking the time to bump them.

 

Those comments were about the SPECIFIC run that was coming out. Those model runs were disasters for people who want a snowstorm. There's really no denying that. If we can't post about a model run unless it's cold and snowy then that's a problem. It's too bad the weenies are only able to handle news that is good for them. 

It was my first time multi-quoting!  I'm so happy it worked.

 

I didn't mean to irritate you, and it seems I have done that, so I apologize.

[HM]

 

But we certainly are in no position to complain right now. I have over 26" of snow on the season so I can certainly withstand a snowless period here. Maybe we'll even get an inch on Sunday morning if lucky.

Multiply your amount by 0.1 and that's my seasonal total. Bring on the toooooooorch (touchy subject I know lol).

[mahk_webstah]

Yeah its hard to keep it the whole time even up where I am higher up on the north side. I usually will melt it out at least a couple times per winter. Went wire to wire though with 2010-2011...but as you said, that is the exception and not the rule. 2007-2008 we melted out in January during that terrible torch...and then melted out at least about halfway in early February before recovering with a snow to ice event, and then 2 decent snow events and a couple minor ones before we were basically done in early March.

 

'00-'01 was epic...that went wire to wire until April, lol. '02-'03 was pretty darn good too. Not much melt out in that winter. '04-'05 had some warm spells where we tried to melt out in February at times, but we never did. Might have seen some bare patches down where you live though...that type of pattern.

 

Hell even 1995-1996 had the epic mother torch period that turned 45" of snow pack into about 8" of concrete...and it completely melted out on the CP. Almost every winter has them.

 

 

But we certainly are in no position to complain right now. I have over 26" of snow on the season so I can certainly withstand a snowless period here. Maybe we'll even get an inch on Sunday morning if lucky.

In terms of thaws this one looks fairly middle of the road.  It just seems worse because our period of winter has been so short.  mid Jan of 96 was an awful thaw in Philly....huge piles of snow just melting everywhere.  10-11 was also a late starting winter so while there was no Jan thaw, it was only 8 weeks at the most of winter and then a pretty early melt.

[free_man]

The best news of all is that once the torch is over,   there's really only February left,  and Feb should be at least slightly above normal as well.

 

Cruisin' right into Spring.    Love it!

 

 

[HM]

Lets simplify this. Starting this Tuesday, the euro ensembles show day after day of high temp anomalies in the +7 to +14 range across the Northeast. Is there room for some modulating there in New England? Sure, a lot would depend on the mid-week cutter track (which has very little cold air associated with it to drag east) and whether there is more onshore flow versus westerly flow around a HP system. It DOES NOT turn back to cold in the Northeast following that system, in fact, most models say the warmest is yet to come with +10 to +20 anoms Fri into the weekend, probably ahead of a second cutter...Beyond that point, it's reasonably fair game to drag some colder weather into new england with some sort of se ridge/gradient pattern..but even the 11-15 day is several degrees above normal on the ensembles

 

whatever those temp anomalies mean to your sensible weather being warm, not warm, torchy or otherwise compared to average, so be it.

Numbers like that mean more of the same down my way...no snow. I'm still hoping to see some snowflakes this weekend but it probably will go north. Between missing out on the 12/29 event and this 1/6 wave failing, I'm feeling cold and annoyed. That's worse than any torch feeling.

[ma blizzard]

This is a torch:

 

First 15 days of Jan 2007 at ORH

 

1/1     42/30

1/2     42/28

1/3     47/29  

1/4     50/37

1/5     57/44

1/6     66/45

1/7     46/37

1/8     48/33

1/9     38/28

1/10   31/19

1/11   31/16   (normal for date)

1/12   45/31

1/13   48/34 

1/14   34/30

1/15   41/31

 

[danstorm]

Numbers like that mean more of the same down my way...no snow. I'm still hoping to see some snowflakes this weekend but it probably will go north. Between missing out on the 12/29 event and this 1/6 wave failing, I'm feeling cold and annoyed. That's worse than any torch feeling.

 

I second that.  The 12/29 failure was especially depressing given the cold airmass that was to follow.  A walk to work on snowy ground beats the same walk on brown, frozen ground. 

[ORH_wxman]

This is a torch:

 

First 15 days of Jan 2007 at ORH

 

1/1     42/30

1/2     42/28

1/3     47/29  

1/4     50/37

1/5     57/44

1/6     66/45

1/7     46/37

1/8     48/33

1/9     38/28

1/10   31/19

1/11   31/16   (normal for date)

1/12   45/31

1/13   48/34 

1/14   34/30

1/15   41/31

 

 

 

That was an epic period to start the month. Things turned pretty quickly that winter though at least. We made a decent recovery...though not to the extent that NNE did.

 

 

Check out January 2006 as well. That was a good one. The funniest part about January 2006 was that we had over 24" of snow that month....despite being like +8.6F for the monthly departure. It was the 3rd warmest January on record here.