The First Week of Jan..Bitter cold,Balls drop as we ring in 2013

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Warm to me is relative to climo for the day.

 

Right, for me here 50 would be really warm on a sunny day in January.  I cannot imagine hitting 60 in January on a consistent basis.  I fully expect multiple days of 50+ in the next 2 weeks.

[CT Rain]

Right, for me here 50 would be really warm on a sunny day in January.  I cannot imagine hitting 60 in January on a consistent basis.  I fully expect multiple days of 50+ in the next 2 weeks.

 

The argument about high standard deviations in winter is valid. A +10 in July is not the same as +10 in January. That said, if you just look at the op GFS through D10 it's pretty hideous. Just an above normal pattern with cutter after cutter. There is hope beyond D10.

 

The temperature talk is just stupid. I could care less about +5 or -5.... I just want some snow. And through D10 I really don't see much to get excited about. It sucks but even in the best winters there's a 10 day or longer stretch of meh weather. 

 

Some of the posts by hobbyists who live on mountains in CT are really annoying because we're just having different conversations I think. Let's hope the pattern improves post-day 10... that's really where the conversation should be looking at. 

[Cold Miser]

Some of the posts by hobbyists who live on mountains hills in CT are really annoying because we're just having different conversations I think. Let's hope the pattern improves post-day 10... that's really where the conversation should be looking at. 

 

Fixed.

[mahk_webstah]

warm to me is 80.  that's why we use objective terms like "above normal"

 

nobody is debating "above normal".  above normal can include +1 on a daily average or +20 on a daily average...we are debating the extent of the warmth in SNE CNE and NNE.  You are deep fried weenie down there... mine will only slightly thaw.

[NorEaster27]

Actually not true, the higher departures are often found where climo is the coldest in these setups, too soon to say where these would occur, but if the Euro or Gfs are correct there will be plenty of +10+++ departures throughout the northeast.

agreed, highest departures look like SNE

[danstorm]

People need to relax a bit - it's only weather - why anyone's posts should seriously bother another is beyond me. 

 

And good god... sometimes people can be so literal about every little thing, definitions of torch/no torch, tenths of inches differences in average snowfall, etc... I know we are all passionate and for those who have to forecast, small differences matter... but the back and forth about the most mundane/minute aspects amounts to very little at the end of the day. 

[Clinch Leatherwood]

The argument about high standard deviations in winter is valid. A +10 in July is not the same as +10 in January. That said, if you just look at the op GFS through D10 it's pretty hideous. Just an above normal pattern with cutter after cutter. There is hope beyond D10.

 

The temperature talk is just stupid. I could care less about +5 or -5.... I just want some snow. And through D10 I really don't see much to get excited about. It sucks but even in the best winters there's a 10 day or longer stretch of meh weather. 

 

Some of the posts by hobbyists who live on mountains in CT are really annoying because we're just having different conversations I think. Let's hope the pattern improves post-day 10... that's really where the conversation should be looking at. 

 

I agree.  I think almost all of us agree.  I'm not sure why people are exhausting themselves trying to correct/convince/change minds of others.  Just let it roll, the weather next week will speak for itself.

 

I hate these protracted inactive or warm periods but it's been a fact of life these past two winters.

[Typhoon Tip]

not semantics.

above normal here is a high of 35.  that is not warm.  warm is 45+ which we might hit 1 or maybe 2 days...or maybe not.  One thing for sure....no snow or cold for you for quite a while.

 

Eh ... I wouldn't kid yourself.  Sensible weather interpretation is ALWAYS semantics, because it's ALWAYS subjective.  

 

The problem is there is a disconnect between quantitative and qualitative analysis (that latter being ENTIRELY up to the purchaser); further confused when folks really don't know what they are talking about, much of the time. 

 

There is no such thing in the science of Meteorology, or climatology, called a "Torch" - it's so utterly meaningless to argue what that means (based in no small part on the former subjectivity), that it teeters on insanity to keep engaging in that - seriously, what is the definition of insanity, repeating the same exercise indefinitely expecting a different result?   Seems to apply, only this case, folks keep banging their heads against the keyboard arguing about something that is completely pointless to argue.    

 

Luckily, what saves the day?  What is actually at stake is not the argument its self - it can't be won or lost given to the interpretation bias of "Torch".   That is not what people are engaging - they are actually merely using it to complain.  If they were really trying to argue a point that could never be won or lost, they would most certainly be of questionable mentality.   What's really going on, however, is simply venting ... it's just that simple.  Folks here clearly have a snow fetish that at times comes across as such a bias that there is little hope of objective pattern analysis - in fact, it gets less about the weather at all, and all about snow.   I've joked in the past, but there really is some truth to it (as is the case for all humor);  what is really needed is a site called "The American Snow Forums", where the moderators 5ppd any posters attempting theoretical application to weather forecasting!

 

As it were, Meteorology has terms and phrases that attempt quantitative analysis that is devoid of person regards for what the individual wants.  They're called "above normal",  "much above normal",  or even more detailed, "+3 Standard Deviation warm air mass passing through for precisely so many days and/or hours..."    But, gee - that's no fun, because no one can hear the raging discontent in my voice. 

[mahk_webstah]

The argument about high standard deviations in winter is valid. A +10 in July is not the same as +10 in January. That said, if you just look at the op GFS through D10 it's pretty hideous. Just an above normal pattern with cutter after cutter. There is hope beyond D10.

 

The temperature talk is just stupid. I could care less about +5 or -5.... I just want some snow. And through D10 I really don't see much to get excited about. It sucks but even in the best winters there's a 10 day or longer stretch of meh weather. 

 

Some of the posts by hobbyists who live on mountains in CT are really annoying because we're just having different conversations I think. Let's hope the pattern improves post-day 10... that's really where the conversation should be looking at. 

 

some of the weenie comments are pretty similar to at least a couple of experienced New England mets...no need to bifurcate us like that.  The notion of how warm does it get, is there sneaky cold that mutes it, do some of us get some snow in this next 7-10 days, and how quickly do we come out of it...there are differing opinions on this.  When I (a true weenie) say something not too far from what Will or Tip says, I am a weenie.

 

I dread the argument we will have on here in 7 days about how many stations had +10 for 3 days, so it was CLEARLY a TORCH.  But if it is days that are 40/20, 44/25, etc then in my view that is a brief mild thaw, not a torch...but the TORCHMONGERS will claim victory over the weenies.

[Tropopause_Fold]

gfs and ggem both have a pretty good soaker mid-week. that's become a more moisture loaded storm with time as it lifts out of the southern plains.

[mahk_webstah]

Eh ... I wouldn't kid yourself.  Sensible weather interpretation is ALWAYS semantics, because it's ALWAYS subjective.  

 

The problem is there is a disconnect between quantitative and qualitative analysis (that latter being ENTIRELY up to the purchaser); further confused when folks really don't know what they are talking about, much of the time. 

 

There is no such thing in the science of Meteorology, or climatology, called a "Torch" - it's so utterly meaningless to argue what that means (based in no small part on the former subjectivity), that it teeters on insanity to keep engaging in that - seriously, what is the definition of insanity, repeating the same exercise indefinitely expecting a different result?   Seems to apply, only this case, folks keep banging their heads against the keyboard arguing about something that is completely pointless to argue.    

 

Luckily, what saves the day?  What is actually at stake is not the argument its self - it can't be won or lost given to the interpretation bias of "Torch".   That is not what people are engaging - they are actually merely using it to complain.  If they were really trying to argue a point that could never be won or lost, they would most certainly be of questionable mentality.   What's really going on, however, is simply venting ... it's just that simple.  Folks here clearly have a snow fetish that at times comes across as such a bias that there is little hope of objective pattern analysis - in fact, it gets less about the weather at all, and all about snow.   I've joked in the past, but there really is some truth to it (as is the case for all humor);  what is really needed is a site called "The American Snow Forums", where the moderators 5ppd any posters attempting theoretical application to weather forecasting!

 

As it were, Meteorology has terms and phrases that attempt quantitative analysis that is devoid of person regards for what the individual wants.  They're called "above normal",  "much above normal",  or even more details, "+3 Standard Deviation warm air mass passing through for precisely so many days and/or hours..."    But, gee - that's no fun, because no one can hear the raging discontent in my voice. 

 

All true but you know what I mean....

[Cold Miser]

gfs and ggem both have a pretty good soaker mid-week. that's become a more moisture loaded storm with time as it lifts out of the southern plains.

 

Awesome. 

[Mr Torchey]

some of the weenie comments are pretty similar to at least a couple of experienced New England mets...no need to bifurcate us like that.  The notion of how warm does it get, is there sneaky cold that mutes it, do some of us get some snow in this next 7-10 days, and how quickly do we come out of it...there are differing opinions on this.  When I (a true weenie) say something not too far from what Will or Tip says, I am a weenie.

 

I dread the argument we will have on here in 7 days about how many stations had +10 for 3 days, so it was CLEARLY a TORCH.  But if it is days that are 40/20, 44/25, etc then in my view that is a brief mild thaw, not a torch...but the TORCHMONGERS will claim victory over the weenies.

Victory? Its just weather, you seem to be taking this way too seriously. Your climate is much different than most others, and your climo is much colder, therefore your threshold for above normal is much lower, what your personal opinion of whats warm or not really does not matter, nor does mine.

The numbers never lie. We all want snow and lots of it, hopefully things look better towards the second half of the month.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just an opinion here. Not meant to scratch nerves or chalkboards. Here's Ryan's boss Bobby Maxon 7 day forecast for BDL . This is how Will and I envision it as well. Above normal yes. Warm or torch no

@bobmaxon: 2nd try.....Inland 7 day forecast! Have a great weekend...an inch possible Sunday? http://t.co/YjVSKlGd

[Mr Torchey]

gfs and ggem both have a pretty good soaker mid-week. that's become a more moisture loaded storm with time as it lifts out of the southern plains.

This would be nasty and a snowcover screwjob for many.  Hopefully it trends east 

[weatherMA]

agreed, highest departures look like SNE

 

Not sure I agree with that. March 2012 was like that, but in this set-up I could see 60s for DC and 40s up here. It's not a lock for highest departures to be in SNE.

[Tropopause_Fold]

hvy hvy snow and cold everyday. 

[Ginx snewx]

temps above freezing at bdl, hfd, bdr, hvn, willamantic etc etc.........outside one day this bitter cold shot was truly underwhelming in Connecticut, and in the heart of it today, dailies in ct are above normal, strange way to run a cold shot.

a

Ok minus 8 so far this month and no way today finishes above normal when it was 8 degrees this AM

[Baroclinic Zone]

gfs and ggem both have a pretty good soaker mid-week. that's become a more moisture loaded storm with time as it lifts out of the southern plains.

 

No argument there.

[Mr Torchey]

a

Ok minus 8 so far this month and no way today finishes above normal when it was 8 degrees this AM

 

Sorry bdl hfd bdr all above normal today.

[Damage In Tolland]

I could envision a setup where maybe the mid atl up to SYR and BUF torch up into the 50's or near 60.Possibly even getting near 50 up in the Dacks

[weatherMA]

gfs and ggem both have a pretty good soaker mid-week. that's become a more moisture loaded storm with time as it lifts out of the southern plains.

 I was hoping Wednesday would be a nice ski day up in NNE with sun and 30s up there...hopefully that could hold until Thursday..

[ORH_wxman]

Can we please stop with these posts, its a full on torch, +15 to +25 departures. No other word for it.

 

 

 

You are probably the last person who should give lectures on how to post on these forums....just sayin'

[Tropopause_Fold]

sun/mon should be relatively wintry days...at least mon over E areas with that slight trough and some low level NE flow and incoming cold. whether its enough to produce more than just flurries i'm not sure. 

[CT Rain]

Just an opinion here. Not meant to scratch nerves or chalkboards. Here's Ryan's boss Bobby Maxon 7 day forecast for BDL . This is how Will and I envision it as well. Above normal yes. Warm or torch no

@bobmaxon: 2nd try.....Inland 7 day forecast! Have a great weekend...an inch possible Sunday? http://t.co/YjVSKlGd

 

7 days above normal. AWT.

[NJwinter23]

Lets simplify this. Starting this Tuesday, the euro ensembles show day after day of high temp anomalies in the +7 to +14 range across the Northeast. Is there room for some modulating there in New England? Sure, a lot would depend on the mid-week cutter track (which has very little cold air associated with it to drag east) and whether there is more onshore flow versus westerly flow around a HP system. It DOES NOT turn back to cold in the Northeast following that system, in fact, most models say the warmest is yet to come with +10 to +20 anoms Fri into the weekend, probably ahead of a second cutter...Beyond that point, it's reasonably fair game to drag some colder weather into new england with some sort of se ridge/gradient pattern..but even the 11-15 day is several degrees above normal on the ensembles

 

whatever those temp anomalies mean to your sensible weather being warm, not warm, torchy or otherwise compared to average, so be it.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 days above normal. AWT.

Sunday and Monday will be? After that 100% agree. Snow will be wiped out with those temps!

[CT Rain]

Lets simplify this. Starting this Tuesday, the euro ensembles show day after day of high temp anomalies in the +7 to +14 range across the Northeast. Is there room for some modulating there in New England? Sure, a lot would depend on the mid-week cutter track (which has very little cold air associated with it to drag east) and whether there is more onshore flow versus westerly flow around a HP system. It DOES NOT turn back to cold in the Northeast following that system, in fact, most models say the warmest is yet to come with +10 to +20 anoms Fri into the weekend, probably ahead of a second cutter...Beyond that point, it's reasonably fair game to drag some colder weather into new england with some sort of se ridge/gradient pattern..but even the 11-15 day is several degrees above normal on the ensembles

 

whatever those temp anomalies mean to your sensible weather being warm, not warm, torchy or otherwise compared to average, so be it.

 

Stay the course.

[ORH_wxman]

I could envision a setup where maybe the mid atl up to SYR and BUF torch up into the 50's or near 60.Possibly even getting near 50 up in the Dacks

 

 

We are almost certain to crack 50 at least one day here...whether its more like 3 days remains to be seen. Better hope the Canadian isn't right. That would be ugly for like 3-4 days. 00z Euro is probably best case scenario...a quick 12 hour hit of 50+ as the second cutter goes west while the first one is just a big CAD-fest.

[Ginx snewx]

Some Mets in here are condescending and full of themselves. I think some think they are the only one's who understand Science. It gets old especially when good folks and meaningful contributors like Mahk_webstah are basically told to shut up.