The First Week of Jan..Bitter cold,Balls drop as we ring in 2013

[NorEastermass128]

Great day for chipping ice off the driveway. Smells like march. 40s next week should do the trick

[forkyfork]

Its the same system the Euro has from 168-180....GFS is just much faster with the southern stream so the storm happens 24 hours earlier.

 

and the euro is known for holding energy back too far to the SW.  the gfs is probably more correct

[Mr Torchey]

nothing has changed, I really do not understand.  5-10 day period above normal, then we take our chances.

[Mr Torchey]

gfs drives the +10 850 well into ct

[Tropopause_Fold]

it would be nice if the GFS were sniffing out this pattern right. after a warm week it drives a polar boundary through next weekend, cuts one more storm then unloads the arctic big time.

[Damage In Tolland]

You aren't being specific enough for me to know what you are talking about. What month was it? Jan? Feb?

We've had several failed torch patterns before where we mostly CAD our way to only modest temp departures. It could have been Jan 2001...or Feb 2001...or Feb 2003 after PDII. I'm not sure. 2001 did have several false torches I recall.

I could have been in 2004 or 2005 too.

Im almost positive it was Jan 01. Or Feb. it was early days on Eastern . I recall discussing it with Dendrite.

[mahk_webstah]

and the euro is known for holding energy back too far to the SW.  the gfs is probably more correct

 

but I think hpc was going for a slower solution, yes?  they say the water vapor looks pretty wrapped up and would mean more amplification slower

[Clinch Leatherwood]

gfs drives the +10 850 well into ct

that's seasonable, what are the 2m temps?

It's been interesting to compare GFS 8-15 day forecasts vs reality at 850mb. Been running way too cold in that timeframe and punching cold air way too far south.

[Damage In Tolland]

It's interesting on all the differing opinions on next week. It's def not clear cut what happens and it's leading to a lot of different ideas even amongst mets .

[Damage In Tolland]

Does anyone know.. If you have someone on ignore.. Are you still able to see a thread they started.?

[forkyfork]

It's interesting on all the differing opinions on next week. It's def not clear cut what happens and it's leading to a lot of different ideas even amongst mets .

 

it's going to be warm. i haven't seen anyone say otherwise

[Damage In Tolland]

it's going to be warm. i haven't seen anyone say otherwise

Well then you haven't been reading

[Mr Torchey]

temps above freezing at bdl, hfd, bdr, hvn, willamantic etc etc.........outside one day this bitter cold shot was truly underwhelming in Connecticut, and in the heart of it today, dailies in ct are above normal, strange way to run a cold shot.

[snowman21]

We could always use departures greater than a standard deviation or two (or 1.5) as being significant. Daily mean temp departure standard deviations 1981-2010...

ID     JAN    FEB    MAR    APR    MAY    JUN    JUL    AUG    SEP    OCT    NOV    DEC

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ALB 11.7 9.9 9.1 7.9 6.9 6.1 5.3 5.6 6.5 7.2 8.2 9.5

BDL 10.5 9.0 8.3 7.5 6.8 6.1 5.4 5.7 6.5 7.2 7.8 9.0

BDR 9.4 7.7 7.0 5.9 5.6 5.3 4.7 4.9 5.6 6.5 7.1 8.2

BGR 11.9 10.5 8.4 6.3 6.1 5.8 5.1 5.4 6.2 6.5 7.7 9.9

BOS 10.0 8.6 7.9 6.9 7.0 6.9 5.8 5.7 6.1 6.6 7.5 8.8

BTV 13.1 11.5 9.9 8.2 7.2 6.5 5.7 5.8 6.8 7.3 8.6 10.6

CAR 12.6 11.5 9.6 6.8 7.1 6.3 5.5 5.7 6.6 6.8 8.1 11.0

CON 11.2 9.8 8.5 7.5 7.1 6.4 5.6 5.8 6.9 7.2 8.1 9.5

EWR 10.1 8.7 8.4 7.5 6.9 6.2 5.4 5.2 5.8 6.8 7.6 8.7

JFK 9.2 7.9 7.2 6.0 5.7 5.4 4.8 4.6 5.2 6.1 6.9 8.1

LGA 9.8 8.4 7.8 6.9 6.5 6.1 5.2 5.1 5.8 6.6 7.3 8.5

NYC 10.0 8.8 8.4 7.6 6.7 5.9 5.2 5.1 5.7 6.7 7.6 8.8

ORH 10.7 9.6 8.8 7.9 7.3 6.4 5.2 5.5 6.3 7.3 8.3 9.5

PVD 10.1 8.6 7.7 6.6 6.4 6.0 5.2 5.3 6.0 6.8 7.7 8.8

PWM 10.5 9.3 7.7 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.0 5.3 6.0 6.4 7.3 9.0

[forkyfork]

Well then you haven't been reading

 

trop fold, ct rain, orhwill, osu, and coastal all agree on above normal

[forkyfork]

westerly flow and no cloud cover... this is easily 50's, potentially 60

 

[Damage In Tolland]

trop fold, ct rain, orhwill, osu, and coastal all agree on above normal

Noone said it isn't above normal. Above normal doesn't mean warm

[ORH_wxman]

temps above freezing at bdl, hfd, bdr, hvn, willamantic etc etc.........outside one day this bitter cold shot was truly underwhelming in Connecticut, and in the heart of it today, dailies in ct are above normal, strange way to run a cold shot.

 

 

 

We knew the cold shot would be pretty bootleg down in your neck of the woods once we got in the medium range. It was a decent shot for CNE/NNE though.

[Cold Miser]

lolz continue.

[Brian5671]

temps above freezing at bdl, hfd, bdr, hvn, willamantic etc etc.........outside one day this bitter cold shot was truly underwhelming in Connecticut, and in the heart of it today, dailies in ct are above normal, strange way to run a cold shot.

it was one of those in and out shots...in quick and 24 hrs poof, gone.  The front barely cleared CT...NYC south never saw it....

[Mr Torchey]

We knew the cold shot would be pretty bootleg down in your neck of the woods once we got in the medium range. It was a decent shot for CNE/NNE though.

 

Excellent shot for the north kingdom! Just another under performing cold shot here in a long list.  Hopefully the GEFS have a clue as we get into the second half of the month.  Will, whats your take on Sunday am, and possibly a little flurry bonus activity Sunday night with a weak IVT?  Can we scrape out some coatings before the cool up.

[forkyfork]

Noone said it isn't above normal. Above normal doesn't mean warm

 

semantics. that's why it's better to use objective terms like "above normal"

[NorEaster27]

Noone said it isn't above normal. Above normal doesn't mean warm

Can we please stop with these posts, its a full on torch, +15 to +25 departures. No other word for it.

[Typhoon Tip]

These forums sometimes remind me of a class room full of 7th graders where the teacher is 15 minutes late - 

[Mr Torchey]

Sun has broken out

37 degrees very brisk west wind

[mahk_webstah]

not semantics.

above normal here is a high of 35.  that is not warm.  warm is 45+ which we might hit 1 or maybe 2 days...or maybe not.  One thing for sure....no snow or cold for you for quite a while.

[mahk_webstah]

Can we please stop with these posts, its a full on torch, +15 to +25 departures. No other word for it.

 

true for howard beach ny

[Mr Torchey]

true for howard beach ny

 

Actually not true, the higher departures are often found where climo is the coldest in these setups, too soon to say where these would occur, but if the Euro or Gfs are correct there will be plenty of +10+++ departures throughout the northeast.

[forkyfork]

not semantics.

above normal here is a high of 35.  that is not warm.  warm is 45+ which we might hit 1 or maybe 2 days...or maybe not.  One thing for sure....no snow or cold for you for quite a while.

 

warm to me is 80.  that's why we use objective terms like "above normal"

[Baroclinic Zone]

warm to me is 80.  that's why we use objective terms like "above normal"

 

Warm to me is relative to climo for the day.