Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

The First Week of Jan..Bitter cold,Balls drop as we ring in 2013

Damage In Tolland

By Damage In Tolland,
in New England

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

January has the highest standard deviation of temperature departures versus any other month. In fact, it is more than twice the standard deviation of all 3 of June, July, and August. At least here in ORH, which I assume probably runs true for much of the region. Its probably even greater for places like CON.

 

A -7 day here is not considered unusual cold...therefore I personaly do not see why a +7 day is considered a "torch"...but the term is totally subjective. There is no official definition of what a torch is in the AMS glossary or WMO glossary. If you get a whole month averaging that, then that is a different story to me.

 

 

I do think we'll get at least one very impressive positive departure day (like +15 or better) out of this pattern....just for the record. But for the sake of the debate on those other types of days that are of the +7 or +8 variety. There's plenty of grey area on how that is intrepreted.

 

the other thing is...who cares if you get a day that's a +6 but is accompanied by 8" of mashed potatoes. "torch" all you want under those conditions.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

right. very sensible post. 

 

i think it's too bad that it's gotten to this point on these forums. everyday it's the same BS. 

 

overall i can let most of the innocent stuff slide. but every now and then i have a day when i read Kevin's posts and it's like nails on a chalkboard for me. not sure why, but it does. 

 

I've posted what climo is about a dozen times. Even if we're at 40 or low 40s for a few days.... that's a pretty substantial positive departures. 

 

GFS MOS now has 31/50, 37/50, and 30/47 for Wed-Fri of next week. To put Thursday's torch in perspective that's +17.5. If it was -17.5 the day would be something like 0/16. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
  • Author
Posted

If anyone remembers my post the other day about a supposed prolonged torch from the early 2000's and Drag kept poo pooing it and we ended up getting a 2-4 inch snow event preceding a few mild days . This setup on Sunday into Monday going forward into next week is seemingly remarkably similar .

It wax in the early days of Eastern wx. I think it was my first winter on the board so maybe 2001?
Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

the other thing is...who cares if you get a day that's a +6 but is accompanied by 8" of mashed potatoes. "torch" all you want under those conditions.  

 

 

 

Yeah I doubt we are getting a mashed potatoes storm out of this pattern...but certainly nobody is going to complain about a temp departure of +6 if we have a 31/28 day with a paste job.

 

A lot of it is perception.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

I've posted what climo is about a dozen times. Even if we're at 40 or low 40s for a few days.... that's a pretty substantial positive departures. 

 

GFS MOS now has 31/50, 37/50, and 30/47 for Wed-Fri of next week. To put Thursday's torch in perspective that's +17.5. If it was -17.5 the day would be something like 0/16. 

 

yeah MOS is starting to pump out some low 50s here now too. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

Yea , eventually I want to do the whole Dendrite weenie weather center. Now that my daughter and the three grandkids have a new home I have the space to set one up. Have you ever seen Beau Dodsons setup? Weenie heaven

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/

 

yeah i've looked at that before. pretty cool. 

 

Brian is a great resource. I don't know how many people realize how much he knows his stuff when it comes to sensors, siting, etc. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

I've posted what climo is about a dozen times. Even if we're at 40 or low 40s for a few days.... that's a pretty substantial positive departures. 

 

GFS MOS now has 31/50, 37/50, and 30/47 for Wed-Fri of next week. To put Thursday's torch in perspective that's +17.5. If it was -17.5 the day would be something like 0/16. 

 

Whats it printing out for Mon/Tues?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

 

With fresh cover it will be a glorious morning, invigorating cold fresh air while walking through the countryside FTW

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Iphone typos. I'm surprised Will or someone doesn't recall that whole setup. Meh mild up like this one preceded by snow event. Interesting anyway

 

 

 

You aren't being specific enough for me to know what you are talking about. What month was it? Jan? Feb?

 

We've had several failed torch patterns before where we mostly CAD our way to only modest temp departures. It could have been Jan 2001...or Feb 2001...or Feb 2003 after PDII. I'm not sure. 2001 did have several false torches I recall.

 

I could have been in 2004 or 2005 too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Dude,

How much snow on the ground still back home?  Heading out at about 4:00.  Hoping to get some sledding in with my kids tomorrow.  Very depressing coming down to minimal snow down here in Nyack this past Wed.

 

Plenty o plenty , probably 5-7 easy in the sun and 6-8 in the shade. Check out the Sterling Cam I posted in this thread, right up the street from me and looks the same at your location. where you sledding?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

right. very sensible post. 

 

i think it's too bad that it's gotten to this point on these forums. everyday it's the same BS. 

 

overall i can let most of the innocent stuff slide. but every now and then i have a day when i read Kevin's posts and it's like nails on a chalkboard for me. not sure why, but it does. 

 

anyway - with respect to the upcoming pattern...i can see arguments for two things:

 

that is, at times guidance has had some semblance of HP either overhead, just to our north or just to our east. in that scenario areas by you are likely staying more like 35-40F by day - so no huge issue with snowpack. and, on top of that, some interior valleys would decouple at night, radiate and maybe struggle to rise a whole lot during the day with a nasty inversion. then maybe one cutter comes through and scours folks out with a quick jump to the upper 40s to mid 50s regionwide before we settle back to average to maybe slightly above temps thereafter - with a transition to real cold later in the month. 

 

I think the other option on the table - and the one i'm more fearful of and admittedly leaning towards right now - is a deeper layer westerly flow setting in for a longer period of time and allowing for many areas in SNE to climb well into the 40s and perhaps pass 50F on a couple of occasions. Then a cutter or two establishing an influx of warmer and relatively "high dewpoint" air. after that point i would expect a gradual step down process toward mid-month, and hopefully an intrusion of winter cold say after the 18-20th or thereabouts. 

 

once fall and winter come around, i want cold and i want snow. i don't *WANT* it to be warm. that said, i'm far more interested in getting it right, figuring out why etc...than I am rooting for one scenario over another. 

 

The ignore feature does work well, nothing important is missed as quotes do appear even for ignored posters.

 

I've posted what climo is about a dozen times. Even if we're at 40 or low 40s for a few days.... that's a pretty substantial positive departures. 

 

GFS MOS now has 31/50, 37/50, and 30/47 for Wed-Fri of next week. To put Thursday's torch in perspective that's +17.5. If it was -17.5 the day would be something like 0/16. 

 

People are arguing over whether it's a torch or not at +15 departures because of the high temperatures...as if 65 degrees is plausible.  Anything over +10 is a torch beyond normal proportions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Jerry this morning was one of those mornings where I slowed the world down and took it all in for a 1/2 hour ( made me late but who cares only so many more left).

I did the same thing! I went out really early because I had people schduled for me by 8:30 but at 5:45 i went out with the dog through the quiet streets around town. It was around 18-20 at the time with beautiful snow cover, a few folks rushing to work but mostly quiet. I spent about 30 minutes walking around town and took it all in. The younger guys will realize how precious it is as the sands of time run through the hour glass.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cold Miser

Cold Miser

Posted
Posted

Plenty o plenty , probably 5-7 easy in the sun and 6-8 in the shade. Check out the Sterling Cam I posted in this thread, right up the street from me and looks the same at your location. where you sledding?

 

Brooklyn Golf Course has a nice sweeping hill.  The kind that takes a while to walk up, but is well worth it for the nice ride down.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

gfs has a pretty wet warm storm there at day 5-6...kinda on it's own there...euro doesn't have it yet.

 

Its the same system the Euro has from 168-180....GFS is just much faster with the southern stream so the storm happens 24 hours earlier.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...