The First Week of Jan..Bitter cold,Balls drop as we ring in 2013

[Tropopause_Fold]

I like snow pack. Brown dead grass does nothing for me in January. So we hit 42F with bare ground? Great, I'll put on my swim trucks and roll out the BBQ.

 

In all seriousness, for those who do enjoy snow on the ground during the winter, highs of 37F and highs of 49F make a pretty big difference over the course of a 2 or 3 day stretch . difference between wipeout and keeping a good chunk of it.

 

 

Even if we do lose all of it back this way, I am pretty optimistic going forward for the 2nd half of the month. Doesn't mean we instantly see a snowstorm after the warmer period ends, but I do like the look overall. It was nice to see the 00z Euro ensembles split the PV more and send at least part of it into SE Canada....it is still retrograding a chunk of it back to the northwest, but by splitting part of it SE, it gives a better look for us. GEFS are still completely throwing the hammer down. Pretty interesting to see which one wins or how much compromise there is.

 

i don't disagree. i'd prefer the snow to be up to the windows all winter. i just think it gets old that when the pattern looks crappy you are either labeled as trolling, negative, anti-snow/cold or just flat out bad at forecasting. 

 

i don't understand why this has to be spun into anything. 

[mahk_webstah]

a nice Miller B that the Euro shows for CNE NNE, rains Buf, snows in Mahky Mahky land perfect.

 

IMPOSSIBLE...what day is that?

[forkyfork]

Too bad you've become so bitter about normal winter Ray. Winter with cold and snowcover is perfect. I know I've in the past compalined about cold with no snow but we got the snow and now the cold. It looks like winter, feels like winter, is winter. But to each his own...

And an inch of snow is always fun even if it's gone by nightfall (which it won't be). In fact, a 15 minutes snowshower is fun. Snow is snow. And every flake I see gives me sustainence and strength. Thank goodness our organization is severely limiting travel or I'd be in LA the last week in January. Thankfully, I'll be right here in New England.

 

i average a paltry 30-35" and an inch of snow will always be boring to me.  i can't imagine how it would be fun for someone who averages >50"

[radarman]

Warmed up quickly here.  Now 32. 

 

The only drawback to the snow on the 27th was that the pond ice had just barely crusted over beforehand resulting in rutted mess upon the freeze up.  Seemed safe enough and maybe with some heavy surfacing work today it could be ok for skating briefly before the warm up.  Could always head up into the north Quabbin area which was probably black before the snow and will just require shoveling, but locally it may be a little while yet before it's good for hockey.

[OSUmetstud]

given the hemispheric signals that would be IMPOSSIBLE!  Ok.end of my sarcasm.

 

easy there Mark lol.

 

I might consider leaving the board if you get a real snow event over the in that torch period.

[mahk_webstah]

I wouldn't call it plowable. It looked like a few hours of starting as wet snow though on the Euro. It was at 174 hours though, so its almost meaningless.

 

We plow at 2 inches here and a few hours of wet snow would do that where I live.

[Logan11]

I have always thought the dew point was a big factor in snow pack decimation. When the dew point rises above 32F for a length of time the meltdown becomes a lot worse. I assume "best case" we are going to have about a 24 hour period with cutter #2 where the Td is above 32. So I don't see my foot of powder as faring all that well. None of that hard durable stuff here...all powder.

I like snow pack. Brown dead grass does nothing for me in January. So we hit 42F with bare ground? Great, I'll put on my swim trucks and roll out the BBQ.

 

In all seriousness, for those who do enjoy snow on the ground during the winter, highs of 37F and highs of 49F make a pretty big difference over the course of a 2 or 3 day stretch . difference between wipeout and keeping a good chunk of it.

 

 

Even if we do lose all of it back this way, I am pretty optimistic going forward for the 2nd half of the month. Doesn't mean we instantly see a snowstorm after the warmer period ends, but I do like the look overall. It was nice to see the 00z Euro ensembles split the PV more and send at least part of it into SE Canada....it is still retrograding a chunk of it back to the northwest, but by splitting part of it SE, it gives a better look for us. GEFS are still completely throwing the hammer down. Pretty interesting to see which one wins or how much compromise there is.

 

 

[weathafella]

i average a paltry 30-35" and an inch of snow will always be boring to me.  i can't imagine how it would be fun for someone who averages >50"

Being outside in falling snow of any amount brings me joy. But clearly you don't have the same experience so neither of us can imagine why the other feels that way. All good and part of the human diverse experience.

[mahk_webstah]

i average a paltry 30-35" and an inch of snow will always be boring to me.  i can't imagine how it would be fun for someone who averages >50"

 

up here that is a pack refresher at this time of the year...I love it because it 1)refreshes and cleans up and 2) while it is snowing it feels like a real storm if you already have a good snow cover.

[ORH_wxman]

i don't disagree. i'd prefer the snow to be up to the windows all winter. i just think it gets old that when the pattern looks crappy you are either labeled as trolling, negative, anti-snow/cold or just flat out bad at forecasting. 

 

i don't understand why this has to be spun into anything. 

 

 

 

I agree with that. I think there's just some subjective terms that get thrown around too much that cause the disageement in the first place.

 

We see several days of +6 to +9 daily departures...some call it a torch...others call it a mild thaw or just seasonal mildness in January. Subjectively both terms can be defended, but it seems to turn into "no, its a torch...don't deny it" vs "38F high temp isn't what I would consider a torch"....stuff like that.

 

As is always the case too, there is a pretty large sensible wx difference between areas for a +8 day. In ORH, that might mean 36/29 in mid-January....near BDR that might mean 45/32. Then there's the whole snow pack thing on top of that.

 

 

I think objectively we can say that we have a solid 5-7 day stretch of above average temperatures coming. Whether the magnitude is enough to wipe out snow pack in the interior remains to be seen.

[mahk_webstah]

easy there Mark lol.

 

I might consider leaving the board if you get a real snow event over the in that torch period.

 

Lol...don't do that.

And it doesn't look a torch up here

[Tropopause_Fold]

up here that is a pack refresher at this time of the year...I love it because it 1)refreshes and cleans up and 2) while it is snowing it feels like a real storm if you already have a good snow cover.

 

yeah we had a couple of hours of light snow yesterday morning and it was just a dusting on top of the cement that's on the ground...but with temps at like 10F it was pretty cool. 

[ORH_wxman]

We plow at 2 inches here and 2 hours of wet snow would do that where I live.

 

 

 

Lol, if you are getting moderate to heavy snow it would be. Rates are kind of important when determining if you get 2 inches in 2 hours.

[mahk_webstah]

Lol, if you are getting moderate to heavy snow it would be. Rates are kind of important when determining if you get 2 inches in 2 hours.

 

I meant a few hours actually....but it isn't uncommon to get mod-heavy rates at the front end from was before a dry slot or changeover.  Meanwhile to quote JB, our torch starts with snow on Sunday and artic air on Monday.

[mahk_webstah]

Just to draw a line in the sand...if someone 10 days from now says "it was +8 in CON, thats a torch!", it doesn't count if it was 40/20....as has been said, that is a warm up not a torch.

[tamarack]

yeah today will probably tick above in a few spots.

 

the other thing with last year is i think it warped the definition of "torch". in the winter i feel like it used to simply be days that were like >+6 or +8F or something like that. 

 

but last year we had several days in January that were way way up there. i think BDL had like 10 or 12 double digit positive departures and was like +19 or something ridiculous one of the days. so when people are thinking winter "torch" their mind is reverting back to last year. 

 

oh well. 

 

IMO, "torch" is way overused.  In January, until it's 10F+ above climo, it's hard for me to even consider the term.  "Torch" for a high of 36?  (Or, when I lived in Ft. Kent, for a high of 28?)  It's different in July, when temp ranges are less extreme and when +5 in SNE means 90 or higher.  In midwinter, "torch", to me, means multiple days at +10 or more, or a spike past +15 or +20.

 

And the way the modeled storms are shifting around, I'm in "wait and see" mode and much less pessimistic than 2-3 days back when run after run showed the three cutters.

[Brian5671]

I meant a few hours actually....but it isn't uncommon to get mod-heavy rates at the front end from was before a dry slot or changeover.  Meanwhile to quote JB, our torch starts with snow on Sunday and artic air on Monday.

---

JB is headed for a colossal bust if the Arctic air does not come back this month...he was awful in December-went -2 for most areas and result was +4-+6...that's an 8 degree bust on the high end-that is hard to do!

[TalcottWx]

It's winter and I'm a weenie. I want cold and snow. When there's a torch it's depressing. Snowpack or no snowpack.

[Mr Torchey]

I would not be quoting joe bastardi after his performance over the last couple years, he was off 4-8 degrees in December for the east, has been horrific.

[ORH_wxman]

IMO, "torch" is way overused.  In January, until it's 10F+ above climo, it's hard for me to even consider the term.  "Torch" for a high of 36?  (Or, when I lived in Ft. Kent, for a high of 28?)  It's different in July, when temp ranges are less extreme and when +5 in SNE means 90 or higher.  In midwinter, "torch", to me, means multiple days at +10 or more, or a spike past +15 or +20.

 

And the way the modeled storms are shifting around, I'm in "wait and see" mode and much less pessimistic than 2-3 days back when run after run showed the three cutters.

 

 

 

January has the highest standard deviation of temperature departures versus any other month. In fact, it is more than twice the standard deviation of all 3 of June, July, and August. At least here in ORH, which I assume probably runs true for much of the region. Its probably even greater for places like CON.

 

A -7 day here is not considered unusual cold...therefore I personaly do not see why a +7 day is considered a "torch"...but the term is totally subjective. There is no official definition of what a torch is in the AMS glossary or WMO glossary. If you get a whole month averaging that, then that is a different story to me.

 

 

I do think we'll get at least one very impressive positive departure day (like +15 or better) out of this pattern....just for the record. But for the sake of the debate on those other types of days that are of the +7 or +8 variety. There's plenty of grey area on how that is intrepreted.

[Brian5671]

So much for Upton's mostly sunny forecast for here today-been 100% overcast since sunrise.

[Ginx snewx]

Like I said earlier this morning, a stunning morning of sunrise on river freezing fog, pure whiteness. Even if snow does nothing for you, aesthetically it was stunning.

[Brian5671]

Check out the map of the US-almost no watches, warnings or advisories anywhere...

[Mr Torchey]

ok so cold is anything more than -10 departure and torch is anything more than  a +10 departure, lets use that as a guidline going forward........unfortunately looking back and looking ahead I do not think many people will be happy with the results but it would be good to have a starting point.

 

- 5 or +5 to 10 is chilly and warm anything else falls under relatively normal

[ORH_wxman]

Monday could have some sneaky Scooter cold...esp the further north you are again.

[Tropopause_Fold]

I agree with that. I think there's just some subjective terms that get thrown around too much that cause the disageement in the first place.

 

We see several days of +6 to +9 daily departures...some call it a torch...others call it a mild thaw or just seasonal mildness in January. Subjectively both terms can be defended, but it seems to turn into "no, its a torch...don't deny it" vs "38F high temp isn't what I would consider a torch"....stuff like that.

 

As is always the case too, there is a pretty large sensible wx difference between areas for a +8 day. In ORH, that might mean 36/29 in mid-January....near BDR that might mean 45/32. Then there's the whole snow pack thing on top of that.

 

 

I think objectively we can say that we have a solid 5-7 day stretch of above average temperatures coming. Whether the magnitude is enough to wipe out snow pack in the interior remains to be seen.

 

right. very sensible post. 

 

i think it's too bad that it's gotten to this point on these forums. everyday it's the same BS. 

 

overall i can let most of the innocent stuff slide. but every now and then i have a day when i read Kevin's posts and it's like nails on a chalkboard for me. not sure why, but it does. 

 

anyway - with respect to the upcoming pattern...i can see arguments for two things:

 

that is, at times guidance has had some semblance of HP either overhead, just to our north or just to our east. in that scenario areas by you are likely staying more like 35-40F by day - so no huge issue with snowpack. and, on top of that, some interior valleys would decouple at night, radiate and maybe struggle to rise a whole lot during the day with a nasty inversion. then maybe one cutter comes through and scours folks out with a quick jump to the upper 40s to mid 50s regionwide before we settle back to average to maybe slightly above temps thereafter - with a transition to real cold later in the month. 

 

I think the other option on the table - and the one i'm more fearful of and admittedly leaning towards right now - is a deeper layer westerly flow setting in for a longer period of time and allowing for many areas in SNE to climb well into the 40s and perhaps pass 50F on a couple of occasions. Then a cutter or two establishing an influx of warmer and relatively "high dewpoint" air. after that point i would expect a gradual step down process toward mid-month, and hopefully an intrusion of winter cold say after the 18-20th or thereabouts. 

 

once fall and winter come around, i want cold and i want snow. i don't *WANT* it to be warm. that said, i'm far more interested in getting it right, figuring out why etc...than I am rooting for one scenario over another. 

[CT Rain]

Euro ens still looks quite mild rolling forward. Above normal for sure.

 

Things do get interesting beyond D10 though. Not a great setup as we lose our EPO ridging but there is some blocking in the North Atlantic that has been a pretty strong signal. So something to keep in mind. 

[Ginx snewx]

This is great, my neighbor down the road about 1/2 mile put in a web Cam, he is about 25 feet higher than me. But hey now I can see what I missing at home. His station is very good too.

[Ginx snewx]

Monday could have some sneaky Scooter cold...esp the further north you are again.

 

yea i said the same thing yesterday especially near Debbie Raymond.

[Tropopause_Fold]

This is great, my neighbor down the road about 1/2 mile put in a web Cam, he is about 25 feet higher than me. But hey now I can see what I missing at home. His station is very good too.

 

i need to get one. they have become relatively inexpensive.