The First Week of Jan..Bitter cold,Balls drop as we ring in 2013

[dryslot]

The 00z Euro for the day 7 storm has pretty strong CAD and even has CNE/NNE snow for a time during the firts part of the storm. Pretty funny looking.

 

 

It still has the huge cutter after it though.

 

 

Saw that, Primary tracks into MI and a secondary try's to get going over NJ saving NNE late from torching

[dryslot]

Last nights low here was -2.7F

[Lava Rock]

clouds kept us from only getting down to 8F.

[ORH_wxman]

lol at this thread... I still don't see a real "torch" either. I'm not saying it won't get warm... but highs in the upper 30s to low 40s for most of the elevated interior for a couple days with lows in the 20s, is not really a torch. If we were looking at 55/35 type days, then yes. I still think it verifies colder at the surface than what H85 temps would lead you to believe. BTV has been harking that the summits will likely end up warmer for the first couple days anyway, above the sfc inversion that should lock colder air at the surface. its January with no sun angle and a substantial deep/cold snowpack... what happens at H85 probably won't translate to the surface until the last day when stronger southerlies can mix it up a bit. Overall it looks like 48-72 hours at worst and its below freezing at night thanks to snow cover.

 

 

 

The 00z Euro really would only be one disastrous day for snow pack...and that is Day 9 when the 2nd storm cuts. The first storm that originally gave us that one run a few days ago where it had like 65F here now tracks over ACK. Even some forzen precip in the interior of CNE/NNE for a time.

 

That type of day would be a above average no doubt, but probably like a 36/29 type day. That's still a +8, but its a +8 that really doesn't do much damage if you like to keep the snow pack around. Its the mega cutter that would cause any damage.

[Ginx snewx]

a nice Miller B that the Euro shows for CNE NNE, rains Buf, snows in Mahky Mahky land perfect.

[powderfreak]

a nice Miller B that the Euro shows for CNE NNE, rains Buf, snows in Mahky Mahky land perfect.

 

Yeah I can understand OSU's frustration with warmth in January... but this is a pattern that reeks of warmth from the Ohio Valley into PA/NY, while its quite muted east of the Greens/Berks/Taconics.  This could be a situation where PIT/BUF/SYR all torch to 50-60 for a few days, while New England sticks in the 35-43F range, with nights going below freezing with snow cover.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Thank you. Really disappointing behavior at my expense last night from a few who normally don't do that. It's gotten to the point where i can't even post my thoughts without getting blasted. I voice my opinion and people start whining and complaining about it getting frustrating.

 

if your posts were simply just your opinion and not veiled (or blatant most often) attempts to get other people to respond to you, you wouldn't have this problem

[Mr Torchey]

Even today will be above normal at bdr bdl hfd ijd pvd etc, warm night time lows and highs in the 30s, folks have to remember what time of year it is and not let last winter cloud there climo knowledge.

 

The melt has begun here, 35 sw wind are cranking.

[Damage In Tolland]

if your posts were simply just your opinion and not veiled (or blatant most often) attempts to get other people to respond to you, you wouldn't have this problem

I don't know. Will agrees with me and so does Freak yet I don't see 30 posts ripping them .

[Cold Miser]

Weather guy on channel 12 in Hudson Valley, NYC area was so excited last night to talk about the possibility of 60 degree temps next week.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Even today will be above normal at bdr bdl hfd ijd pvd etc, warm night time lows and highs in the 30s, folks have to remember what time of year it is and not let last winter cloud there climo knowledge.

 

The melt has begun here, 35 sw wind are cranking.

 

yeah today will probably tick above in a few spots.

 

the other thing with last year is i think it warped the definition of "torch". in the winter i feel like it used to simply be days that were like >+6 or +8F or something like that. 

 

but last year we had several days in January that were way way up there. i think BDL had like 10 or 12 double digit positive departures and was like +19 or something ridiculous one of the days. so when people are thinking winter "torch" their mind is reverting back to last year. 

 

oh well. 

[Tropopause_Fold]

I don't know. Will agrees with me and so does Freak yet I don't see 30 posts ripping them .

 

exactly. they don't call other people out. they just state their opinion. LOL

[40/70 Benchmark]

Weather guy on channel 12 in Hudson Valley, NYC area was so excited last night to talk about the possibility of 60 degree temps next week.

I'm excited....this current cold is an absolutely useless nuisance.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I'm excited....this current cold is an absolutely useless nuisance.

 

But, but, it retains the snowpack.

[40/70 Benchmark]

But, but, it retains the snowpack.

3-4" of withering fluff?

Who cares....onward with more sunlight, and longer days....if we happen to get buried along the way, great.

[Damage In Tolland]

exactly. they don't call other people out. they just state their opinion. LOL

But that's what I did. And it always turns into Kevin said this Kevin said that or I'm not sure what Kevin is looking at. All I've done is state I don't think a few days of slightly above next week is a big deal. And then winter returns after that. I don't know why that creates so much consternation with certain folks

[Tropopause_Fold]

But, but, it retains the snowpack.

 

it's helped here. we had about 4" of very high water content snow that just froze on everything. some of the trees are still covered here and there despite all the wind. some of the back roads look like they were plowed yesterday still. i love that look. makes it still look fresh. 

[Mr Torchey]

wrong thread but yay for the nam on Sunday:)

[40/70 Benchmark]

But that's what I did. And it always turns into Kevin said this Kevin said that or I'm not sure what Kevin is looking at. All I've done is state I don't think a few days of slightly above next week is a big deal. And then winter returns after that. I don't know why that creates so much consternation with certain folks

[Tropopause_Fold]

But that's what I did. And it always turns into Kevin said this Kevin said that or I'm not sure what Kevin is looking at. All I've done is state I don't think a few days of slightly above next week is a big deal. And then winter returns after that. I don't know why that creates so much consternation with certain folks

 

you're right. 

[Mr Torchey]

How about them apples? 1-3 lock it up

[Tropopause_Fold]

NAM with some nice mood snows early Sunday. 

would be nice to see the euro come in with a bit more than a "T". there's a bit of an inverted trough signature over us sunday night into monday morning too. will have to see if that can sneak out some snows. 

[ORH_wxman]

I like snow pack. Brown dead grass does nothing for me in January. So we hit 42F with bare ground? Great, I'll put on my swim trucks and roll out the BBQ.

 

In all seriousness, for those who do enjoy snow on the ground during the winter, highs of 37F and highs of 49F make a pretty big difference over the course of a 2 or 3 day stretch . difference between wipeout and keeping a good chunk of it.

 

 

Even if we do lose all of it back this way, I am pretty optimistic going forward for the 2nd half of the month. Doesn't mean we instantly see a snowstorm after the warmer period ends, but I do like the look overall. It was nice to see the 00z Euro ensembles split the PV more and send at least part of it into SE Canada....it is still retrograding a chunk of it back to the northwest, but by splitting part of it SE, it gives a better look for us. GEFS are still completely throwing the hammer down. Pretty interesting to see which one wins or how much compromise there is.

[Tropopause_Fold]

NAM with some nice mood snows early Sunday. 

would be nice to see the euro come in with a bit more than a "T". there's a bit of an inverted trough signature over us sunday night into monday morning too. will have to see if that can sneak out some snows. 

 

also could be a bit of ocean effect snow. low level flow becomes decent for it and just a quick burst of CAA steepens the low level lapse rates for a bit monday morning. 

[codfishsnowman]

Lol...6z op gfs 384 has the 20C h85 line deep into NC. Hello February 1934!

I'll bun it ahead of time to save the trouble...

lol

[weathafella]

Too bad you've become so bitter about normal winter Ray. Winter with cold and snowcover is perfect. I know I've in the past compalined about cold with no snow but we got the snow and now the cold. It looks like winter, feels like winter, is winter. But to each his own...

And an inch of snow is always fun even if it's gone by nightfall (which it won't be). In fact, a 15 minutes snowshower is fun. Snow is snow. And every flake I see gives me sustainence and strength. Thank goodness our organization is severely limiting travel or I'd be in LA the last week in January. Thankfully, I'll be right here in New England.

[mahk_webstah]

The 00z Euro for the day 7 storm has pretty strong CAD and even has CNE/NNE snow for a time during the firts part of the storm. Pretty funny looking.

 

 

It still has the huge cutter after it though.

 

you mean we might get plowable snow up here in the next week?  I NEVER would've thought that possible, given the models...

My oh my

[Damage In Tolland]

I like snow pack. Brown dead grass does nothing for me in January. So we hit 42F with bare ground? Great, I'll put on my swim trucks and roll out the BBQ.

In all seriousness, for those who do enjoy snow on the ground during the winter, highs of 37F and highs of 49F make a pretty big difference over the course of a 2 or 3 day stretch . difference between wipeout and keeping a good chunk of it.

Even if we do lose all of it back this way, I am pretty optimistic going forward for the 2nd half of the month. Doesn't mean we instantly see a snowstorm after the warmer period ends, but I do like the look overall. It was nice to see the 00z Euro ensembles split the PV more and send at least part of it into SE Canada....it is still retrograding a chunk of it back to the northwest, but by splitting part of it SE, it gives a better look for us. GEFS are still completely throwing the hammer down. Pretty interesting to see which one wins or how much compromise there is.

Pretty much like you took control of my iPhone and made this post for me

[ORH_wxman]

you mean we might get plowable snow up here in the next week?  I NEVER would've thought that possible, given the models...

My oh my

 

 

I wouldn't call it plowable. It looked like a few hours of starting as wet snow though on the Euro. It was at 174 hours though, so its almost meaningless.

[mahk_webstah]

Saw that, Primary tracks into MI and a secondary try's to get going over NJ saving NNE late from torching

 

given the hemispheric signals that would be IMPOSSIBLE!  Ok.end of my sarcasm.