Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

The First Week of Jan..Bitter cold,Balls drop as we ring in 2013

Damage In Tolland

By Damage In Tolland,
in New England

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

Posted
Posted

Good Morning Southern New England!

 

Very mild overnight here with plenty of clouds and wind, temp of 30 with mostly clear skies at the moment, the very very brief polar siege is over here with highs above freezing today and through the forseeable future.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

DCA is like an urban heat island, a few miles from there can be a drastic temperature difference.

You can say the same for Philly, NYC, and BOS.

Incidentally IAD was 39/21 and bwi 38/22 which also is astounding considering what it was here (bos 25/7) and the fact that there wasn't an obvious boundary...just a penetration of a shallow cold push which kind of petered out when it reached the sne south coast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Personally, I haven't seen much muting or making anything transient within the period we are discussing. It's beyond day 10 that have looked a bit more interesting for cold within the last 48 hours or so of model runs.

Mark, I wasn't calling you a wall...it's general discontent of what I see a lot of weenies (probably not you) that are generally ignorant to learn anything, get pissy and think they know better when mets are talking about warmth in winter etc.

It's kinda of persistent on American, and I just wish people were a bit more interested in learning about the science of meteorology rather than only caring about the snow in their backyards.

OSU I don't think it's persistent at all really aside of one or two people. Go back and look at the last ten pages most everyone has accepted what is coming the red taggers are really only debating one or two dissenters. There's this compulsion to convince everyone when in reality just letting people think what they want is the way to go. Most get the message some don't, it's all good.

Pwman, the bias you see towards not believing in cold shots is founded in the fact that they fail to occur so many times as we see subjectively and I believe statistically it's been demonstrated the models run cool long term. Regardless for the last 18 months betting warm has worked.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Gfs def has a nice pattern going foward. But it did warm up a lot for next week.

1/8-18 averaging above normal is a good bet. 1/18-28 averaging below is also a good bet IMHO but obviously fraught with peril considering the fact that we 're taking way beyond d10.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Negative EPO with slightly above normal heights can produce colder at the sfc than models imply. I am not too concerned with the idea that we may have 10 days above normal in a row. Even if it happens, its probably like +2 or +3 type stuff mixed in. Thats like 33/18 here.

 

I consider stuff over 40F for highs a true thaw....so on that particular front, I actually agree with Kevin. The 2nd half of January 2008 had a total of 6 days below average after the torch ended on Jan 12th. Out of all the positive departures, we ended up building a snow pack and saw a couple of snow events. This was because most of the positives were like +5 type stuff where the splits were like 33/20.

 

 

Its the 45/30 days and the 51/34 days that are killer. I don't think we'll see more than 2 or 3 of those. But perhaps I will end up wrong.

 

Thank you. Really disappointing behavior at my expense last night from a few who normally don't do that. It's gotten to the point where i can't even post my thoughts without getting blasted. I voice my opinion and people start whining and complaining about it getting frustrating.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted

1/8-18 averaging above normal is a good bet. 1/18-28 averaging below is also a good bet IMHO but obviously fraught with peril considering the fact that we 're taking way beyond d10.

Agree Jerry. Lets keep this torch a one week deal. Gfs and euro have the mid-Atlantic in shorts next week

Link to comment
Share on other sites
HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted

With no disrespect to those more educated and knowledgeable (and bitchy lol), I am hoping I don't go much above what BOX is thinking for the start of the torch for me:

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 25.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 10.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 34.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 39.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28.

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 39

Link to comment
Share on other sites
moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

With no disrespect to those more educated and knowledgeable (and bitchy lol), I am hoping I don't go much above what BOX is thinking for the start of the torch for me:

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 25.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 10.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 34.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 39.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28.

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 39

 

More or less the same out this way.  If we can keep those as our highs, the relatively low sun angle will cause less melt than might occur in a few weeks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
S&P

S&P

Posted
Posted

100% spot on!!  I can't tell you the number of times the total snowfall used for Groton is a total that was called in hours before the snow ended!  It's comical to see!  I try to call in the Westerly totals as often as I can but due to my travel schedule, it's not always possible.  In addition, about the half the time, my totals never make it to the list - even though I am a trained skywarn spotter. 

 

My 16 year average is in the low to mid 30's - I am about 1 mile inland.  I do agree with the terminal moraine concept as well.  I am on that ridge and on the 26th event where I had almost an inch of very wet snow, about 1/2 mile down the road (and off the moraine) there was only a few wet flakes mixed in and along the beaches, it never snowed.

 

Snowfall totals are lower from Point Judith through about Little Compton.  I have friends and family living there to verify however very rarely are there snowfall totals reported from that area.  When was the last time you saw Jamestown report a snowfall total?   I would find it hard to believe that Beavertail has more snow annually than Watch Hill. 

 

I have no bias in trying to inflate my snowfall totals as I am NOT a snow lover.  I have no appreciation whatsoever for cold/snow/ or winter.  I wish I could report that my area averages 0" per year but that is not the case.  I do however have an interest in making sure the right data is reported, calculated and represented when used for these types of discussions.

last weekend's event was typical, got 5 slushy " in portsmouth (north end of aquidneck island) with temps around 32 all day and night (except for maybe the last half inch of snow). drove into newport sat night and it was snowing at 34 degrees, wicked slushy there (about 7-8 miles as the crow flies). lawton valley (portsmouth)used to report snow amounts, not sure if they still do. i am sure KUUU still reports snow amounts (site is middletown not newport)

Link to comment
Share on other sites
snowman21

snowman21

Posted
Posted

As someone who's primarily a lurker here, I find it by turns fascinating and maddening that certain mets: (1) are so quick to matter-of-factly embrace warm signals as slam-dunks when they'd never do so with extreme cold or snow threats at the same range; and (2) seem to become so obsessed with the opinions of hobbyists (which are admittedly misguided some of the time) who hope for snow. Seems almost like a fetish.

 

Given that warmth has verified much better than cold over the past few years, and if your job depended on you being right more than wrong, how would you forecast? Just curious. I think a weenie's perspective and forecast would change dramatically if this was more than a game or form of entertainment for them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

Lol...6z op gfs 384 has the 20C h85 line deep into NC. Hello February 1934!

I'll bun it ahead of time to save the trouble...

:weenie:

 

I think there is a lot of fun to come Jerry.  I'd say above normal Jan 9-15, near normal Jan 10-15, below Jan 15-20.

 

Nice fluff this am.  I  love single digits and snow.

 

BTW was in Southern Berkshire County this weekend...beautiful there!  That could be your spot to weenie out...snow, nice little towns, good restaurants, great hikes.  BTW have you taken your wife to Quebec City for winter carnival before?  Snow heaven up there and they've gotten alot this year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

I think there is a lot of fun to come Jerry. I'd say above normal Jan 9-15, near normal Jan 10-15, below Jan 15-20.

Nice fluff this am. I love single digits and snow.

BTW was in Southern Berkshire County this weekend...beautiful there! That could be your spot to weenie out...snow, nice little towns, good restaurants, great hikes. BTW have you taken your wife to Quebec City for winter carnival before? Snow heaven up there and they've gotten alot this year.

All great ideas! For now, we're slaves to our daughters schedule and $24,000 annual private school tuition but that ends after next year. I've never been to Quebec so it's high on the list. Also Montreal. I'm reading Sylvie Simmons's biography of Leonard Cohen. Very good read and winter mention is a necessity.

Loving the cold...glad I'm not stuck in buffalo because cold or not, you have to live in buffalo...lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

lol at this thread... I still don't see a real "torch" either. I'm not saying it won't get warm... but highs in the upper 30s to low 40s for most of the elevated interior for a couple days with lows in the 20s, is not really a torch.

If we were looking at 55/35 type days, then yes. I still think it verifies colder at the surface than what H85 temps would lead you to believe.

BTV has been harking that the summits will likely end up warmer for the first couple days anyway, above the sfc inversion that should lock colder air at the surface. its January with no sun angle and a substantial deep/cold snowpack... what happens at H85 probably won't translate to the surface until the last day when stronger southerlies can mix it up a bit.

Overall it looks like 48-72 hours at worst and its below freezing at night thanks to snow cover.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...