The First Week of Jan..Bitter cold,Balls drop as we ring in 2013

[OSUmetstud]

I don't see this whole cold air nearby thing...It's not a like a gradient pattern where it's colder than normal over southern Canada.

 

[OSUmetstud]

It's been below freezing here most of the time since around Dec. 22 I think. Maybe we hit 33-34 a few times. -19 this morning was a little cold. So that's about a 17 stretch of winter through Jan. 8th. Then we'll see how long the mild up lasts.

 

I think we only need one Kevin.  

[Logan11]

I thought it was perfectly legitimate post, but then I'm also a weenie...  LOL  I can certainly recall years when we got wet snow events in well above normal patterns during January. 1990 and 2006 come to mind.

this is a weenie post...sorry.  and you aren't getting a snowstorm in that period...

 

 

[mahk_webstah]

this is a weenie post...sorry.  and you aren't getting a snowstorm in that period...

 

Yeah I know it's a weenie post.  Welcome to Americanwx!  

 

So no accumulating snow for me for the next 10 days at least eh?  That isn't a hard statement to make.  You are saying much above normal for days 5-10 for Concord NH right?  What does that mean for daytime highs?  How many above 40?  That is truly warm.  A high of 35 and low of 20 isn't warm and isn't a torch to me.  My normal is about 30/10 now.  The conversation and tone in this thread makes it sound like it torches days 5-10 and then that might continue to day 15.  I am saying that I strongly doubt that and don't think it will happen.

 

There will be precipitation between days 5 and 15 up here and I think some of that will be accumulating snow....it might change to rain if there are strong cutters.  It wouldn't surprise me though if a sneaky high drops some cold enough air in from eastern canada and keeps us pretty chilly.

[mahk_webstah]

I don't see this whole cold air nearby thing...It's not a like a gradient pattern where it's colder than normal over southern Canada.

 

 

Eastern Canada is snow covered and cold...even with above normal anomalies, in mid Jan Canada is plenty cold.

[mahk_webstah]

I thought it was perfectly legitimate post, but then I'm also a weenie...  LOL  I can certainly recall years when we got wet snow events in well above normal patterns during January. 1990 and 2006 come to mind.

 

Thank you.  And might I add that you aren't even in New England where we get more of the sneaky cold than you do.

[weathafella]

DCA was 38/30 on today's climo. I find that astounding.

[ravensrule]

DCA was 38/30 on today's climo. I find that astounding.

 

DCA is like an urban heat island, a few miles from there can be a drastic temperature difference.

[OSUmetstud]

Yeah I know it's a weenie post.  Welcome to Americanwx!  

 

So no accumulating snow for me for the next 10 days at least eh?  That isn't a hard statement to make.  You are saying much above normal for days 5-10 for Concord NH right?  What does that mean for daytime highs?  How many above 40?  That is truly warm.  A high of 35 and low of 20 isn't warm and isn't a torch to me.  My normal is about 30/10 now.  The conversation and tone in this thread makes it sound like it torches days 5-10 and then that might continue to day 15.  I am saying that I strongly doubt that and don't think it will happen.

 

There will be precipitation between days 5 and 15 up here and I think some of that will be accumulating snow....it might change to rain if there are strong cutters.  It wouldn't surprise me though if a sneaky high drops some cold enough air in from eastern canada and keeps us pretty chilly.

 

 

You aren't getting a snowstorm in the day 5 to 10 period...I said day 11 to 15 might be interesting for you guys...it's like talking to a ****ing wall around here.

 

I'd bet day 11 to 15 average above normal, but not significantly so.  Day 6 to 10 will be quite significant.

[OSUmetstud]

I thought it was perfectly legitimate post, but then I'm also a weenie...  LOL  I can certainly recall years when we got wet snow events in well above normal patterns during January. 1990 and 2006 come to mind.

 

Do you honestly think someone is getting a snowstorm in the next 10 days?

 

Beyond that...there is potential.

 

It's pure weenieism to look in the face of the best guidance...which is consistent...along with hemispheric signals...and good meteorologists and say "well I don't believe it, I'm going with my snow loving gut!"

[OSUmetstud]

right on cue...the gfs has a moderate snow event for CNE on day 11 lol.

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Do you honestly think someone is getting a snowstorm in the next 10 days?

 

Beyond that...there is potential.

 

It's pure weenieism to look in the face of the best guidance...which is consistent...along with hemispheric signals...and good meteorologists and say "well I don't believe it, I'm going with my snow loving gut!"

 

Those are changing, though - it's hard to imply the 'signals indicate' when the signals them selves are in delta.  At least from the CEF derived products - although the Euro weeklies doing a pretty big time reversal could be construed as a collapse if it persists.  

 

The problem for that next 10 days is what I spoke of earlier; the operational Euro and GFS are increasingly more transient with any warm up, and are drilling a strong PV signature into central Canada - whether that means snow or not remains to be seen.   But when the operational runs agree, usually their respective ensemble means will tend to evolve toward the higher resolution operational versions.  That's known by NCEP et al.  

 

We may get a briefer warm up next week, perhaps modulated by both speed of translation combined with antecedent snow pack and cold.  About a week from now, that system goes by the boards and already the PV is setting up.  Interesting.  

[OSUmetstud]

Those are changing, though - it's hard to imply the 'signals indicate' when the signals them selves are in delta.  At least from the CEF derived products - although the Euro weeklies doing a pretty big time reversal could be construed as a collapse if it persists.  

 

The problem for that next 10 days is what I spoke of earlier; the operational Euro and GFS are increasingly more transient with any warm up, and are drilling a strong PV signature into central Canada - whether that means snow or not remains to be seen.   But when the operational runs agree, usually their respective ensemble means will tend to evolve toward the higher resolution operational versions.  That's known by NCEP et al.  

 

We may get a briefer warm up next week, perhaps modulated by both speed of translation combined with antecedent snow pack and cold.  About a week from now, that system goes by the boards and already the PV is setting up.  Interesting.  

 

John we've all been talking about the strong signals in the day 5 to 10 period today, mainly.

 

Beyond that...I'd bet CNE/SNE averages above normal temperaturewise but not signficantly so...along with some SWFE threats.

[mahk_webstah]

You aren't getting a snowstorm in the day 5 to 10 period...I said day 11 to 15 might be interesting for you guys...it's like talking to a ****ing wall around here.

 

I'd bet day 11 to 15 average above normal, but not significantly so.  Day 6 to 10 will be quite significant.

Perhaps not you...I'm too tired to go look, but the implication in this thread has been that perhaps this lousy pattern goes beyond the 10 day period.  It has also sounded like some are buying the guidance verbatim and assuming we are going to torch - above normal, yes...torch?  maybe maybe not depending upon where you are and how you define torch.

 

You could be less bitchy, which you've been occassionally lately.  I'm not a ****ing wall.

[Typhoon Tip]

John we've all been talking about the strong signals in the day 5 to 10 period today, mainly.

 

Beyond that...I'd bet CNE/SNE averages above normal temperaturewise but not signficantly so...along with some SWFE threats.

 

Yeah... I get it - I did say 10 days, too.   Not meaning to be an argumentative douche, I'm just sensing here that the background signal is going to keep damping this in the operational runs, and I also suspect that ends up verifying.

 

Not speaking in terms of snow - but the warm up alone.  I'm not seeing "torch" personally.  Of course .. I am not even sure what a "torch" means - I figure it for a +15 for more than 2 days, but the term torch is subjective.  I'm sure to many on the board, if it's not snowing its a torch.  dumb 

 

The PNA only falls to neutral in the CPC.  It goes dramatically negative at the CDC's NCEP channel, but only neutral in the other.  Meanwhile, by D5 the EPO has fallen negative and continues to plummet in the ensemble mean - the operational showing up with a deeper negative anomaly shortly thereafter is pinching the warm of prior to the end of that 10 days. 

 

I feel pretty confident that the D9, 12z Euro ends up a touch east in all mass fields.  

[mahk_webstah]

Those are changing, though - it's hard to imply the 'signals indicate' when the signals them selves are in delta.  At least from the CEF derived products - although the Euro weeklies doing a pretty big time reversal could be construed as a collapse if it persists.  

 

The problem for that next 10 days is what I spoke of earlier; the operational Euro and GFS are increasingly more transient with any warm up, and are drilling a strong PV signature into central Canada - whether that means snow or not remains to be seen.   But when the operational runs agree, usually their respective ensemble means will tend to evolve toward the higher resolution operational versions.  That's known by NCEP et al.  

 

We may get a briefer warm up next week, perhaps modulated by both speed of translation combined with antecedent snow pack and cold.  About a week from now, that system goes by the boards and already the PV is setting up.  Interesting.  

 

That's a weenie post...sorry.

 

Lol

[OSUmetstud]

Perhaps not you...I'm too tired to go look, but the implication in this thread has been that perhaps this lousy pattern goes beyond the 10 day period.  It has also sounded like some are buying the guidance verbatim and assuming we are going to torch - above normal, yes...torch?  maybe maybe not depending upon where you are and how you define torch.

 

You could be less bitchy, which you've been occassionally lately.  I'm not a ****ing wall.

 

well that is possible, too.  It's kinda of a fine line.  I think Scooter, Will, and Ryan, and I all have mentioned that today?

 

Well you're making implications of things that I've said...like a torch through day 15...which I did not.

 

Frankly, it annoys me when weenies act like they know better than models and mets...and it happens a lot around here...and perhaps I took it further than I should have.

[Typhoon Tip]

That's a weenie post...sorry.

 

Lol

 

Heh, funny - but I'm not that.  The post is meteorological.  (I get the humor though).   Look ... I posted earlier about the ops modulating things cooler, and that the ensembles would probably start collapsing that way, ...4 hours later, those dopey Euro weeklies come out - guess what?  colder.   Take it for what it's worth.   The signal for this month is not warm - 

 

It smacks as a red-herring warm up, where it DOES get warmer, but not to the scale as the over zealous products that took a signal to the wood shed and back. 

[OSUmetstud]

Yeah... I get it - I did say 10 days, too.   Not meaning to be an argumentative douche, I'm just sensing here that the background signal is going to keep damping this in the operational runs, and I also suspect that ends up verifying.

 

Not speaking in terms of snow - but the warm up alone.  I'm not seeing "torch" personally.  Of course .. I am not even sure what a "torch" means - I figure it for a +15 for more than 2 days, but the term torch is subjective.  I'm sure to many on the board, if it's not snowing its a torch.  dumb 

 

The PNA only falls to neutral in the CPC.  It goes dramatically negative at the CDC's NCEP channel, but only neutral in the other.  Meanwhile, by D5 the EPO has fallen negative and continues to plummet in the ensemble mean - the operational showing up with a deeper negative anomaly shortly thereafter is pinching the warm of prior to the end of that 10 days. 

 

I feel pretty confident that the D9, 12z Euro ends up a touch east in all mass fields.  

I generally feel there will be a lag between when the more favorable hemispheric fields make their appearance know in sensible weather around.  The current hemispheric pattern, the AO, the NAO, the MJO, and the general state of the Pacific and the position of the PV are all quite favorable for warmth over the east...which last about through the next 7 days...beyond that...the indices become a bit more favorable for cold...but I don't think the sensible weather is realized immediately.

[mahk_webstah]

well that is possible, too.  It's kinda of a fine line.  I think Scooter, Will, and Ryan, and I all have mentioned that today?

 

Well you're making implications of things that I've said...like a torch through day 15...which I did not.

 

Frankly, it annoys me when weenies act like they know better than models and mets...and it happens a lot around here...and perhaps I took it further than I should have.

The truth lies somewhere in between....

 

And now Will has talked a page or two ago about a muted warm up and John is speculating on the same thing.  Now I am not a met, obviously but I have been watching weather for 40 years and sometimes you recognize certain situations or patterns.  Last winter was awful and it stayed awful.  This winter does not feel that way and I believe this warm up is minor and a bump in the road.

 

G'Night weenies...

[PWMan]

As someone who's primarily a lurker here, I find it by turns fascinating and maddening that certain mets: (1) are so quick to matter-of-factly embrace warm signals as slam-dunks when they'd never do so with extreme cold or snow threats at the same range; and (2) seem to become so obsessed with the opinions of hobbyists (which are admittedly misguided some of the time) who hope for snow. Seems almost like a fetish.

 

Anyway, FWIW, that's now two straight GFS runs which hold some promise beyond next weeked. I don't doubt that it'll get warm next week, but like many others I'm already looking for the light at the end of the tunnel we've yet to enter.

[OSUmetstud]

Personally, I haven't seen much muting or making anything transient within the period we are discussing.  It's beyond day 10 that have looked a bit more interesting for cold within the last 48 hours or so of model runs.

 

Mark, I wasn't calling you a wall...it's general discontent of what I see a lot of weenies (probably not you) that are generally ignorant to learn anything, get pissy and think they know better when mets are talking about warmth in winter etc.

 

It's kinda of persistent on American, and I just wish people were a bit more interested in learning about the science of meteorology rather than only caring about the snow in their backyards.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[OSUmetstud]

As someone who's primarily a lurker here, I find it by turns fascinating and maddening that certain mets: (1) are so quick to matter-of-factly embrace warm signals as slam-dunks when they'd never do so with extreme cold or snow threats at the same range; and (2) seem to become so obsessed with the opinions of hobbyists (which are admittedly misguided some of the time) who hope for snow. Seems almost like a fetish.

 

Anyway, FWIW, that's now two straight GFS runs which hold some promise beyond next weeked. I don't doubt that it'll get warm next week, but like many others I'm already looking for the light at the end of the tunnel we've yet to enter.

 

nah...i'm just into pregnant women.

[PWMan]

Personally, I haven't seen much muting or making anything transient within the period we are discussing.  It's beyond day 10 that have looked a bit more interesting for cold within the last 48 hours or so of model runs.

 

Mark, I wasn't calling you a wall...it's general discontent of what I see a lot of weenies (probably not you) that are generally ignorant to learn anything, get pissy and think they know better when mets are talking about warmth in winter etc.

 

It's kinda of persistent on American, and I just wish people were a bit more interested in learning about the science of meteorology rather than only caring about the snow in their backyards.

 

I guess it depends on how you define transient. I think many are figuring that the thaw won't really start until day 4 or 5, and that there are signs (at least via the GFS) that things cool down 3-5 days later. I'm not saying that's how it will unfold, but in that scenario it's not really a prolonged warmup -- certainly compared with last year, which I think is a frame of reference that's influencing how many of us are looking at this.

 

I do appreciate your point about the value of learning the meteorology rather than obsessing solely over snow, and I've often felt that the dynamics of mid-winter "torches" (I hate that term with a passion) are under-appreciated.

[mulen]

Plowable snow Texas today =snow in the east eventually no scientific reasoning just its usually a positive trend  peace.

[PWMan]

Another factor that plays into this somewhat, in my opinion, is that this board encompasses a deceptively wide range of climos -- so the actual and perceived deviations from "normal" vary depending on where a poster sits. This cold snap has been a good example, as the below-normal deviations have been noticeably greater for us than for folks to the south. Likewise, a significant thaw can mean mid 50s in CT and low 40s in Maine.

[Typhoon Tip]

Personally, I haven't seen much muting or making anything transient within the period we are discussing.  It's beyond day 10 that have looked a bit more interesting for cold within the last 48 hours or so of model runs.

 

Mark, I wasn't calling you a wall...it's general discontent of what I see a lot of weenies (probably not you) that are generally ignorant to learn anything, get pissy and think they know better when mets are talking about warmth in winter etc.

 

It's kinda of persistent on American, and I just wish people were a bit more interested in learning about the science of meteorology rather than only caring about the snow in their backyards.

 

I knew he was kidding around - I've met Mark; good level headed dude.  

 

I think a lot of failure "to get it" is on the Mets though, and lord knows I'm the most guilty.  It comes with delivery of message.  One needs to be audience aware, and speak with the necessary prose - lest eyes glaze over, you get accolades, then they fall right back into snow talks like a Chatty Kathy Doll. It's because they don't really understand what you are saying because it's over heads.  

 

The "sensible" discussion point is an interesting one for me.  I could see that going either way;  the pattern may settle in faster toward cold in the mid levels, but as you were saying earlier, if the PV sets up some matter of lat/lon NW, the sfc would lag some - agreed.   But I do assert that the synoptic flavor doesn't linger warm nearly as discerned as the runs 3 days ago had the site in an uproar.  

[Typhoon Tip]

I guess it depends on how you define transient. I think many are figuring that the thaw won't really start until day 4 or 5, and that there are signs (at least via the GFS) that things cool down 3-5 days later. I'm not saying that's how it will unfold, but in that scenario it's not really a prolonged warmup -- certainly compared with last year, which I think is a frame of reference that's influencing how many of us are looking at this.

 

I do appreciate your point about the value of learning the meteorology rather than obsessing solely over snow, and I've often felt that the dynamics of mid-winter "torches" (I hate that term with a passion) are under-appreciated.

 

W T F!  I've been crying and screaming and yelling with square-mouthed rage about this site's apparent disregard for Meteorology in lieu of snow obsession for years.   OSU' gets to talk about it for a few minutes and suddenly people get the value of the thing?! 

 

f me -

[free_man]

I don't see this whole cold air nearby thing...It's not a like a gradient pattern where it's colder than normal over southern Canada.

 

 

valley areas  esp. w/ existing snowcover,  while it lasts,  will probably be tough to really "torch",  higher els in SW new england (or northern mid-atlantic,   CT area)  should have no trouble torching.

[OSUmetstud]

W T F!  I've been crying and screaming and yelling with square-mouthed rage about this site's apparent disregard for Meteorology in lieu of snow obsession for years.   OSU' gets to talk about it for a few minutes and suddenly people get the value of the thing?! 

 

f me -

 

lol