The First Week of Jan..Bitter cold,Balls drop as we ring in 2013

[HoarfrostHubb]

Normal to a little above is fine here. Hopefully the nuclear stuff is swift

Need some storms

[OSUmetstud]

the 12z euro ens starting this coming tues don't have a below normal day with respect to max surface temps through the rest of the run. so the 8th through the 18th. and some of the days they are ridiculously warm. 

 

9pm is way past his bedtime...so you're just preaching to the choir now lol.

[CT Rain]

the 12z euro ens starting this coming tues don't have a below normal day with respect to max surface temps through the rest of the run. so the 8th through the 18th. and some of the days they are ridiculously warm. 

 

Stay the course. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Nude pig pile across several states

[danstorm]

1 to 2 days and then back to deep winter.

That's a little mild up, you should know better.

[Tropopause_Fold]

9pm is way past his bedtime...so you're just preaching to the choir now lol.

 

LOL. yeah i know. 

this will all get twisted and it'll be annoying. i think there will be a couple of really mild days. also think there will be a few days where we are stuck with a boundary waffling around and probably overcast skies and temps will be like 39F/33F for the day which will be a huge + departure but of course will be twisted into a "AWT" as not mild. 

 

it just gets old. 

[OSUmetstud]

I hate even calling this a thaw...thaw kinda implies that you've been in an extended cold and snowy pattern when we really haven't

 

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

9.0F/5 attm. Its chilly in some spots

I would call it a thaw, but yeah, winter has only been around for 2 weeks or so

[DavisStraight]

That's a little mild up, you should know better.

 

I thought it was a cool up

[OSUmetstud]

Boston's -14F departure is the greatest negative anomaly since January 15th, 2012 lol.

 

CF6 shows just how much this year has been dominated by positive departures, and some of course massive.

[Allsnow]

Nude met piggy pile on kevin

[weathafella]

Boston's -14F departure is the greatest negative anomaly since January 15th, 2012 lol.

CF6 shows just how much this year has been dominated by positive departures, and some of course massive.

And wasn't that the one seious cold spell last year whch preceded a week where it snowed a few times? Then the pattern lifted out and it was sayonara winter....we hardly knew ya.

[OSUmetstud]

And wasn't that the one seious cold spell last year whch preceded a week where it snowed a few times? Then the pattern lifted out and it was sayonara winter....we hardly knew ya.

 

yep.  BUF hit -8 in January...pretty damn cold for around here...and the only month we're we got nearly normal snowfall.

[Ginx snewx]

I hate even calling this a thaw...thaw kinda implies that you've been in an extended cold and snowy pattern when we really haven't

NNE qualifies

[HoarfrostHubb]

Boston's -14F departure is the greatest negative anomaly since January 15th, 2012 lol.

CF6 shows just how much this year has been dominated by positive departures, and some of course massive.

This morning was my coldest low in 2 years

[HoarfrostHubb]

And wasn't that the one seious cold spell last year whch preceded a week where it snowed a few times? Then the pattern lifted out and it was sayonara winter....we hardly knew ya.

Early March was wintertime here...

...before it came

...before...the Morch

[ORH_wxman]

Negative EPO with slightly above normal heights can produce colder at the sfc than models imply. I am not too concerned with the idea that we may have 10 days above normal in a row. Even if it happens, its probably like +2 or +3 type stuff mixed in. Thats like 33/18 here.

 

I consider stuff over 40F for highs a true thaw....so on that particular front, I actually agree with Kevin. The 2nd half of January 2008 had a total of 6 days below average after the torch ended on Jan 12th. Out of all the positive departures, we ended up building a snow pack and saw a couple of snow events. This was because most of the positives were like +5 type stuff where the splits were like 33/20.

 

 

Its the 45/30 days and the 51/34 days that are killer. I don't think we'll see more than 2 or 3 of those. But perhaps I will end up wrong.

[Allsnow]

Bdr finished 5th of warmest Decembers with above normal snow. +4 with 7.8

[ChrisM]

Dude why are you so upset about what you avg? It's snowy , just not any snowier than NE Ct. Accept and move on

 

LOL, let me know the next time you pick up an inch of LES or a couple of upslope inches.

 

 

 

Then again you've been in bed for three hours.

[OSUmetstud]

NNE qualifies

 

they've been in a cold and snowy pattern for an extended period of time?

[WeatherX]

So it looks like around the 18th of January is the turn date back to winter?.....GEFS look pretty solid on this general date. Euro weeklies aren't worth paying for. You're better off with the North American Ensemble Forecast System, IMO if you are forecasting temp departures in the long mid range. Pattern looks pretty sweet on ensembles for late Jan and early Feb....that would be a pretty classic winter if it comes to fruition.

 

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Down to 10F here.  A few flurries making it down here from the N Berks. 

 

That would make 6 out the last 8 days of seeing at least a few flakes in the air.

 

[ChrisM]

Down to 10F here. A few flurries making it down here from the N Berks.

That would make 6 out the last 8 days of seeing at least a few flakes in the air.

Endless summer man, go for a walk in your banana hammock.

[mahk_webstah]

they've been in a cold and snowy pattern for an extended period of time?

 

Yes they've had a decent stretch further north.  just ask powderfreak.  that being said even up there it started late, just as it did here.  down here it feels like 2 weeks of winter and then a thaw...that is not right.

 

That being said, and I said it earlier...I don't think all these worst case scenarios that are being painted for 15 days are going to happen.  it doesn't have that feeling and I don't give a ****e what long range models say...they have gotten a lot of stuff wrong this winter.  Last winter was different.  I can go 5 above normal here and get snow.  There is cold air in Canada this year and that often sneaks into New England even when the lr maps look crappy.

[OSUmetstud]

Yes they've had a decent stretch further north.  just ask powderfreak.  that being said even up there it started late, just as it did here.  down here it feels like 2 weeks of winter and then a thaw...that is not right.

 

That being said, and I said it earlier...I don't think all these worst case scenarios that are being painted for 15 days are going to happen.  it doesn't have that feeling and I don't give a ****e what long range models say...they have gotten a lot of stuff wrong this winter.  Last winter was different.  I can go 5 above normal here and get snow.  There is cold air in Canada this year and that often sneaks into New England even when the lr maps look crappy.

 

It's going to be quite above normal after day 5...through at least day 10...I'm not sure what says otherwise.  

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 weeks of winter then a thaw does not seem that unusual. Since it happens starting next week it is really 3 weeks in of seasonable, then a torch...

No ice fishing yet...

[OSUmetstud]

winter had a late start and this is a pretty early "thaw" so it doesn't quite feel the same as it normally does.  It's just a subjective opinion, not sure on what real grounds someone has a big beef with it.

 

 

[mahk_webstah]

It's going to be quite above normal after day 5...through at least day 10...I'm not sure what says otherwise.  

 

Yes that is what the LR models say...I understand that.  I'm not convinced it is going to be the kind of torch that is intimated by some on here.  I agree with what Will said.  1 or 2 days in the 40s and a stretch in the 30s is not a torch.  It is possible for me to get a wet snowstorm in that scenario.  With cold air nearby, weird things happen to torchy looking patterns.  There are a lot of unknowns, long range models have sucked a bit this year and nothing is set in stone except for a warm up of some degree.

[OSUmetstud]

Yes that is what the LR models say...I understand that.  I'm not convinced it is going to be the kind of torch that is intimated by some on here.  I agree with what Will said.  1 or 2 days in the 40s and a stretch in the 30s is not a torch.  It is possible for me to get a wet snowstorm in that scenario.  With cold air nearby, weird things happen to torchy looking patterns.  There are a lot of unknowns, long range models have sucked a bit this year and nothing is set in stone except for a warm up of some degree.

 

this is a weenie post...sorry.  and you aren't getting a snowstorm in that period...

[Logan11]

It's been below freezing here most of the time since around Dec. 22 I think. Maybe we hit 33-34 a few times. -19 this morning was a little cold. So that's about a 17 stretch of winter through Jan. 8th. Then we'll see how long the mild up lasts.

 

I hate even calling this a thaw...thaw kinda implies that you've been in an extended cold and snowy pattern when we really haven't