The First Week of Jan..Bitter cold,Balls drop as we ring in 2013

[Damage In Tolland]

All we have is a 36-48 hour relaxation of the pattern that'll allow for probably two mild days middle of next week... then its back into the winter program.

Its not last year...this has been the real deal lately and looks to continue except for next week's hiccup.

Yeah a 1-2 day mild up then return to cold/ stormy. I mean what is so bad about that? I was amazed at some of the reactions today

[Baroclinic Zone]

interesting temp swing here.

dropped to 13F and has now jumped back up to 21f.

[CT Rain]

You have comprehension issues. Wait till its 55F next week

 

I feel like everyone on here is talking about next week... yet Kevin takes that to mean the last week of Jan and early Feb. 

 

The Euro weeklies are also an all out torch for D5-D11 and relatively torchy for week 2 (D12-D18) though with the developing -NAO block I'm sure there's some potential there especially around D15.

Seems like we're having really unfortunate reading comprehension problems. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Seriously though even the warministas for D5-D10 have been talking about potential beyond. I mentioned several times potential for some fun D11-D15 as long as the boundary didn't set up too far north and west and then beyond that who knows. If we can get some blocking like the Euro weeklies show and the GEFS show by D15 we're in business.

Not sure who you were reading or talking about?

Should I share some of those texts from earlier? Or should we keep those close to vest?

[Tropopause_Fold]

You have comprehension issues. Wait till its 55F next week

I feel like everyone on here is talking about next week... yet Kevin takes that to mean the last week of Jan and early Feb.

The Euro weeklies are also an all out torch for D5-D11 and relatively torchy for week 2 (D12-D18) though with the developing -NAO block I'm sure there's some potential there especially around D15.

Seems like we're having really unfortunate reading comprehension problems.

Yep. Not sure what the issue is unless some people don't know how a calendar works.

And this will not be 1 to 2 day warm spell

[CT Rain]

Should I share some of those texts from earlier? Or should we keep those close to vest?

 

I'll share

 

Ryan: I can't believe Euro ens did that today

Ryan: I thought we had hope by D15

Shabbs: Met too. It went right to weekly week 4.

Ryan: PV rockets back to Santa

Ryan: EPO ridging gone

Ryan: Maybe we luck out with the NAO but meh for cold

 

As the first text indicates... I was talking about the Euro ensembles from 12z which were not good. My caveat was about blocking by the end. None of this really has anything to do with D5-D11 or so. 

[Mr Torchey]

interesting temp swing here.

dropped to 13F and has now jumped back up to 21f.

 

Same thing here Bob up to 28 now, clouds moved in gentle breeze out of the south out ahead of this s/w

 

Maybe a couple flurries later over then interior.

[OSUmetstud]

18z GEFS shows about 12 days above normal...5 days significantly so....and maybe about 4 just below normal for SNE.

 

 

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

It's cold thru Tuesday . We'd and Thurs are the two real mild days. Front comes thru Late thurs. next weekend us normal to slightly above. Another fropa comes thru days 10 or 11 and cold pattern is back. So we have 2 possible bad days and less if front can hang up south of us

[OSUmetstud]

It's cold thru Tuesday . We'd and Thurs are the two real mild days. Front comes thru Late thurs. next weekend us normal to slightly above. Another fropa comes thru days 10 or 11 and cold pattern is back. So we have 2 possible bad days and less if front can hang up south of us

 

11-15 day are still likely to average slightly above normal... but more stormy with a gradient type pattern.

[Damage In Tolland]

I'll share

Ryan: I can't believe Euro ens did that today

Ryan: I thought we had hope by D15

Shabbs: Met too. It went right to weekly week 4.

Ryan: PV rockets back to Santa

Ryan: EPO ridging gone

Ryan: Maybe we luck out with the NAO but meh for cold

As the first text indicates... I was talking about the Euro ensembles from 12z which were not good. My caveat was about blocking by the end. None of this really has anything to do with D5-D11 or so.

Lol very very defensive. I didn't even name you yet you thought I may be referring to you. Lets let the pins fall where they may over next 10 days

[CT Rain]

11-15 day are still likely to average slightly above normal... but more stormy with a gradient type pattern.

 

Yeah I think that's what we can hope for. The concern is that we wind up a bit too toasty and the storm track doesn't sink far enough south for us. D11-D15 is not a lock for snow/cold by any means.

[OSUmetstud]

It's cold thru Tuesday . We'd and Thurs are the two real mild days. Front comes thru Late thurs. next weekend us normal to slightly above. Another fropa comes thru days 10 or 11 and cold pattern is back. So we have 2 possible bad days and less if front can hang up south of us

 

Tuesday through Saturday are going to run significantly positive...all 5 days.  Maybe Sunday...too.

[Tropopause_Fold]

It's cold thru Tuesday . We'd and Thurs are the two real mild days. Front comes thru Late thurs. next weekend us normal to slightly above. Another fropa comes thru days 10 or 11 and cold pattern is back. So we have 2 possible bad days and less if front can hang up south of us

You've got a legit shot of holding above freezing for > 48 hrs straight.

[OSUmetstud]

Yeah I think that's what we can hope for. The concern is that we wind up a bit too toasty and the storm track doesn't sink far enough south for us. D11-D15 is not a lock for snow/cold by any means.

 

I'd bet the lower elevations and coast have to wait a bit longer.  Maybe day 15 or just after?

[CT Rain]

Lol very very defensive. I didn't even name you yet you thought I may be referring to you. Lets let the pins fall where they may over next 10 days

 

lol you did write "Should I share some of those texts" in a response to a post from me. 

 

But regardless I feel like we're talking about apples and oranges. You are excited about the period post Jan 20 on the Euro weeklies and I'm talking about the next 10 days and maybe the next 15 depending on how things go.

 

I think we have potential for a SWFE or something D11-D15 but we may wind up tying a noose dyring that period if things don't break right.

[Tropopause_Fold]

It's cold thru Tuesday . We'd and Thurs are the two real mild days. Front comes thru Late thurs. next weekend us normal to slightly above. Another fropa comes thru days 10 or 11 and cold pattern is back. So we have 2 possible bad days and less if front can hang up south of us

Tuesday through Saturday are going to run significantly positive...all 5 days. Maybe Sunday...too.

And likely beyond for a time

[CT Rain]

Tuesday through Saturday are going to run significantly positive...all 5 days.  Maybe Sunday...too.

 

GFS MOS has Saturday through Monday above average too. 

[Damage In Tolland]

You've got a legit shot of holding above freezing for > 48 hrs straight.

i wish you luck my friend

[OSUmetstud]

I'd still be concerned about the PV being too far northwest to be a good SWFE pattern...even in the 11 to 15 day period.  Can't really say either way, but you'd like to see it further southeast causing more confluence over SNE.  Could end up being cold and dry modulating with cool and wet, with the risk of cutters.

 

 

 

 

[CT Rain]

I'd still be concerned about the PV being too far northwest to be a good SWFE pattern...even in the 11 to 15 day period.  Can't really say either way, but you'd like to see it further southeast causing more confluence over SNE.  Could end up being cold and dry modulating with cool and wet, with the risk of cutters.

 

Yeah that's the worry. It may be a slow change. 

[Tropopause_Fold]

You've got a legit shot of holding above freezing for > 48 hrs straight.i wish you luck my friend

You know how KTOL does during warm patterns when only hope for cold is radiating

[CoastalWx]

You know how KTOL does during warm patterns when only hope for cold is radiating

LOL, snow dripping from the peaks of Mt Tolland into the CT river watershed.

[OSUmetstud]

You know how KTOL does during warm patterns when only hope for cold is radiating

 

he'll use ORH to verify his temps

[OSUmetstud]

the snow is going to be gone, i think.  Maybe it doesn't get crazy warm, but there will be a slow drip for an extended period of time.

 

 

[CT Rain]

the snow is going to be gone, i think.  Maybe it doesn't get crazy warm, but there will be a slow drip for an extended period of time.

 

Nope... the week 3 and 4 euro weeklies are cold so the torch weeks 1 and 2 won't happen.

[OSUmetstud]

maybe buffalo will cash in synoptically again in mid-january?

 

 

[Tropopause_Fold]

this is why posting here can be really frustrating sometimes. 

[OSUmetstud]

this is why posting here can be really frustrating sometimes. 

 

1 to 2 days and then back to deep winter.

 

[Tropopause_Fold]

the 12z euro ens starting this coming tues don't have a below normal day with respect to max surface temps through the rest of the run. so the 8th through the 18th. and some of the days they are ridiculously warm.