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The First Week of Jan..Bitter cold,Balls drop as we ring in 2013

Damage In Tolland

By Damage In Tolland,
in New England

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NJwinter23

NJwinter23

Posted
Posted

Eh,  ...Euro was mighty unstable with some recent events, much having to do with its incorrect handling of larger scale mass fields - 

 

perhaps over the longer haul that may be true but I'd apply that rational with some caveats in mind if I were you   :)

 

Euro ensembles i was referring to, not the op, and in a long-term 11-15 day sense...sorry about that...as far as im concerned they have been excellent lately, AND, the comment you bolded was meant in the broad sense of long term statistics that prove that..i understand there are times where the gefs will beat it too though

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

All this talk of torch... hard to comprehend given how cold it was today.  First -20F low of the season here last night. 

 

A couple chances for snowfall through Monday morning...probably 3-6" with 6-12" mtns from a series of fronts and weak vorts.

 

Don't think about a torch.  Stay the course.

 

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KEITH L.I

KEITH L.I

Posted
Posted

All this talk of torch... hard to comprehend given how cold it was today.  First -20F low of the season here last night. 

 

A couple chances for snowfall through Monday morning...probably 3-6" with 6-12" mtns from a series of fronts and weak vorts.

 

Don't think about a torch.  Stay the course.

 

attachicon.gifbrrr.jpg

 

anybody complaining?..just move to the mountains of Vermont..case closed lol

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Is it me or are the greatest weenie runs of the GFS tending to be 18Z? I mean it's like they know everyone is awake and winding down from the work day....

 

That is quite the weenie run...parade of coastal systems.  This winter isn't last year... we'll have a brief break and then its back to full-on winter again.  We always get the January thaw but honestly it doesn't look that bad at all.  There'll inevitably be some rain to end the warm-up, but then its back to CAA and snow.

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radarman

radarman

Posted
Posted

All this talk of torch... hard to comprehend given how cold it was today.  First -20F low of the season here last night. 

 

A couple chances for snowfall through Monday morning...probably 3-6" with 6-12" mtns from a series of fronts and weak vorts.

 

Don't think about a torch.  Stay the course.

 

attachicon.gifbrrr.jpg

 

Well said.  I think living in the city really must make it hard to stay in the present.  (edit- for some, not for the most interesting man in the world however)

 

It's been a strange 48 hours reading the board.  The biggest warminista here is out chopping wood and getting the skates ready, loving every minute of it, while folks who live for winter scrape away their frozen tears, or worse take on some bizarro personality to help themselves cope with a warmup at 100 hours.   

 

For you it looks like true winter conditions for several more days before you have to deal with some softer bumps and god forbid maybe some corn snow on top.  Tragic really, lol.  

 

I'll say Amherst touches 52 one day and 56 for a few hours the second day, before dropping.  Fog has kept temps down in some of our earlier warmups, but this time it won't.  Windblown areas where the snowpack is lower will show bare ground, but most protected spots will stay white considering the 6-1 ratios we had on the 27th.  I'll be sad briefly.  

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

Posted
Posted

Ll must still be splitting wood

Bdr -8

Bos -14

Bdl -15

Orh -13

Impressive!

 

Actually I was funny enough, chopping one of my favorites Tim, Hickory, the smell the beautiful golden brown color in the middle and of course the peel away bark.  Great for cooking with or just burning, nice little crackle.

 

-8 not really impressive? Chilly but kind of meh here, boys up north cashed in for sure...........have a great night Tim!

 

22/15 and dropping like a rock, drop it likes its hot!

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

:snowman: That is all.

 

I'm feeling a clean-up period coming for you guys on the coastal plain.  Whenever the long range models start dropping -20C H85 air into the Great Lakes and northern New England, that to me means suppression up here, and clean-up time for the coastal sections (because the -8C isotherm is there ;) ). 

 

ECMWF weeklies and some of the fantasy runs are showing that cold coming back for mid/late January... plenty of chances for the coast coming up from LL to BOS.  Also a climo favored period for good snows in that area. 

 

Doesn't have to be HECS, but it'd be fun to track a succession of like 4-8/6-12" type events.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

I'll say Amherst touches 52 one day and 56 for a few hours the second day, before dropping.  Fog has kept temps down in some of our earlier warmups, but this time it won't.  Windblown areas where the snowpack is lower will show bare ground, but most protected spots will stay white considering the 6-1 ratios we had on the 27th.  I'll be sad briefly.  

 

You guys in parts of SNE must have a very durable layer in there from that first storm on the 27th...topped with powder from the second storm.

 

That snow will have staying power in the interior just due to the QPF content.  Up here we'll probably see some settling and melting, but I think the biggest loss of depth will just be due to compression.  Most towns up here (even BTV in the valley) are sitting with a 12-20 inch powder pack.  A 40-45F day would really drop levels just because as the crystals melt and break down, all that air is going to come out of the pack.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I just don't know how credible they are, but we'll probably have an idea in about a week.

 

 

 

Yeah its typical week 3 and 4 for the weeklies that we throw in the usual caveats. Esp for week 4. Week 3 seems to have a bit of skill.

 

At any rate, the GEFS hopefully lead the way...they led the way during December when we eventually formed that bootleg NAO block. A solid +PNA pattern would be very welcome. We tend to benefit more from +PNA in latter January and February than we do in December.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Yeah its typical week 3 and 4 for the weeklies that we throw in the usual caveats. Esp for week 4. Week 3 seems to have a bit of skill.

At any rate, the GEFS hopefully lead the way...they led the way during December when we eventually formed that bootleg NAO block. A solid +PNA pattern would be very welcome. We tend to benefit more from +PNA in latter January and February than we do in December.

Yeah I'm pulling for that. I would love a +PNA to shut down the Pacific. Now one other thing that's important and HM drive that home....is keeping that PV and cold source in Canada. Climo naturally is better, but can't hurt to keep Canada cold.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Lots of foolish posts earlier today from usually good sources. Hey it happens to the best of us. Even had to tell Gibbs to stay the course. He was shocked weeklies went deep winter day 11 on

 

All we have is a 36-48 hour relaxation of the pattern that'll allow for probably two mild days middle of next week... then its back into the winter program.

 

Its not last year...this has been the real deal lately and looks to continue except for next week's hiccup.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

Lots of foolish posts earlier today from usually good sources. Hey it happens to the best of us. Even had to tell Gibbs to stay the course. He was shocked weeklies went deep winter day 11 on

 

Seriously though even the warministas for D5-D10 have been talking about potential beyond. I mentioned several times potential for some fun D11-D15 as long as the boundary didn't set up too far north and west and then beyond that who knows. If we can get some blocking like the Euro weeklies show and the GEFS show by D15 we're in business.

 

Not sure who you were reading or talking about? 

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted

Actually I was funny enough, chopping one of my favorites Tim, Hickory, the smell the beautiful golden brown color in the middle and of course the peel away bark.  Great for cooking with or just burning, nice little crackle.

 

-8 not really impressive? Chilly but kind of meh here, boys up north cashed in for sure...........have a great night Tim!

 

22/15 and dropping like a rock, drop it likes its hot!

 

Not much better firewood than hickory, though it's not available up here (unless I steal the three planted hickories at the north end of Mile Hill, that I pass on my commute to AUG.)  Our only species with that kind of BTU density is hophornbeam, a small tree with nasty-to-split grain, though a lot of it is of a size to burn unsplit.

 

Nice to see gfs off it's series of runners; figured it was going to change, though rainout #1 appears to be unchanged, maybe a bit milder.  Into each life...

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