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The First Week of Jan..Bitter cold,Balls drop as we ring in 2013

Damage In Tolland

By Damage In Tolland,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

We need someone to counterbalance the nonsense.  We've got a mild period coming there's really no way around it.  Not the end of the Mayan world, winter will return.

 

 

 

Seemingly an average winter thus far...  Some departures either way, with a "January Thaw" tucked in there.  Meh.

 

One thing I did notice is that the operational runs are not as bullish as their respective ensembles.   Typically, when the operational GFS/EURO/GGEM jump on the same page the lesser resolved cousins of their respective ensemble clusters will begin to migrate in favor.

 

That may be why the GEFs have suddenly looked rather bullish on the -EPO structure to the flow up in the NW Territories of Canada.  The operational GFS is stubborn and unyielding in its insistence with that, the mean may be catching on.    In fact, the operational GFS outright labels this as a Rosby roll-back (mere relaxation, which would by default be warmer) before a pattern reload.  A powerful PV over J.B. setting in by D9+    Meanwhile, the operational Euro really only bring +3C, 850mb air (BL won't be that tall at this time of year...) for 2 to 3 days, and only a 1 day push where it jumps to +10C before cold in the NP/GL floods in.  Both the operational ECM/GFS have similar flow structures.   It may be laughable, the the DGEX is having trouble warming the BL in New England and whether the model is a POS or not, aside, the snow pack could be something to consider.  If the warm push ends up midland in intensity, it's going to have trouble realizing at the surface.   Those 3 days prior to the one day surge in the Euro suddenly don't look as impressive. 

 

So... hm, not sure I'm all that giddy about a huge warm departure - although I admit to putting some details about the MJO supporting that the other day;  just not liking the subtle trends in the operational runs.  

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted

Two major questions that determine the late jan-feb outcome:

 

1. Will the PV retreat before the MJO-NAO become more favorable at the end of the month? If so, then it's bootleg all over again. With longer wavelengths, it would actually be more difficult to pull something off, even though the air is colder. Maybe it ends up a draw and we get the same outcome as late Dec.

 

2. Will the MJO even survive beyond phase 6-7? The MJO tendency on the pattern will support BIG precipitation in the southern Plains/Mississippi Valley and definite warm up we all know is coming. If it continues beyond, a classic split flow / PNA pattern would develop. But this won't mean anything "big snow/cold-wise" if the PV evacuates.

 

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Two major questions that determine the late jan-feb outcome:

 

1. Will the PV retreat before the MJO-NAO become more favorable at the end of the month? If so, then it's bootleg all over again. With longer wavelengths, it would actually be more difficult to pull something off, even though the air is colder. Maybe it ends up a draw and we get the same outcome as late Dec.

 

2. Will the MJO even survive beyond phase 6-7? The MJO tendency on the pattern will support BIG precipitation in the southern Plains/Mississippi Valley and definite warm up we all know is coming. If it continues beyond, a classic split flow / PNA pattern would develop. But this won't mean anything "big snow/cold-wise" if the PV evacuates.

 

One must also wonder if the giant 10hPa warm explosion over Asia that's set to rotate around may also play a role ..

 

gfs_t10_nh_f00.gif

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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Two major questions that determine the late jan-feb outcome:

 

1. Will the PV retreat before the MJO-NAO become more favorable at the end of the month? If so, then it's bootleg all over again. With longer wavelengths, it would actually be more difficult to pull something off, even though the air is colder. Maybe it ends up a draw and we get the same outcome as late Dec.

 

2. Will the MJO even survive beyond phase 6-7? The MJO tendency on the pattern will support BIG precipitation in the southern Plains/Mississippi Valley and definite warm up we all know is coming. If it continues beyond, a classic split flow / PNA pattern would develop. But this won't mean anything "big snow/cold-wise" if the PV evacuates.

 

This. The Euro ensembles were discouraging today. As a previous poster mentioned what essentially happens is the PV retreats and the -AO flips and we've lost out. 

 

The Euro ensembles are certainly different from the GEFS.

 

I think what we know for a certainty is D6-D10 (maybe 12 or 13) are above normal and likely snowless for SNE. Beyond that there seems to be a lot of uncertainty where the global pattern goes.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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ready to put the winter 12-13 to rest down here in the NYC metro..looks like another clunker here..you guys will do well in NE..oh well

 

Really? In general the pattern looks a whole lot better than last year... we're just entering an unpleasant stretch. I don't see any reason for it lasting right into February. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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gee there's something going on in the stratosphere?  :rolleyes::P

 

haha - 

 

yeah ... well, not really sure it's propagating downward (down welling event) which is critical to for the AO correlation.   Just bringing it up because it's there.  time will tell... 

 

What I find interesting is that the CPC (GEFs based) AO has relaxed that positive interval significantly.  There's still a lot of spread in the individual members, but ALL of them are falling to either neutral or negative by as near as January 16 - the recession was hinted for 2 days worth now, but this is the most obvious it's being displayed.  

 

Of course, as Ryan pointed out, the ECM cluster probably calculates things differently - so.

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HM

HM

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This. The Euro ensembles were discouraging today. As a previous poster mentioned what essentially happens is the PV retreats and the -AO flips and we've lost out. 

 

The Euro ensembles are certainly different from the GEFS.

 

I think what we know for a certainty is D6-D10 (maybe 12 or 13) are above normal and likely snowless for SNE. Beyond that there seems to be a lot of uncertainty where the global pattern goes.

 

The ECMWF forecast through day 10 basically has a subsiding wave 1-2 signal and forcing through phase 5-6-7 so it is quite possible this suite is running with that tendency for a worst case scenario long-term. It may be overdoing it to some degree; but heck, it could be right if things go that way.

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HM

HM

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haha - 

 

yeah ... well, not really sure it's propagating downward (down welling event) which is critical to for the AO correlation.   Just bringing it up because it's there.  time will tell... 

 

What I find interesting is that the CPC (GEFs based) AO has relaxed that positive interval significantly.  There's still a lot of spread in the individual members, but ALL of them are falling to either neutral or negative by as near as January 16 - the recession was hinted for 2 days worth now, but this is the most obvious it's being displayed.  

 

Of course, as Ryan pointed out, the ECM cluster probably calculates things differently - so.

 

I think the amount of ozone and upward wave flux from Asia is definitely a good sign as well as the increasingly poleward-EP vectors over the next few days. The -AO anomaly is legit in the medium-extended range but I don't think it transpires as a west-based -NAO signal. As the vortex splits, the PV on our side sits basically in these regions and slowly retrogrades. This may support an east-based NAO. In December, a CW (will see if it gets named one in the post-season analysis) styled warming came from behind the vortex and allowed the EPO ridge to break off into the west based NAO regions. That wouldn't happen this go-around. We would need the vortex to essentially diminish.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I think the amount of ozone and upward wave flux from Asia is definitely a good sign as well as the increasingly poleward-EP vectors over the next few days. The -AO anomaly is legit in the medium-extended range but I don't think it transpires as a west-based -NAO signal. As the vortex splits, the PV on our side sits basically in these regions and slowly retrogrades. This may support an east-based NAO. In December, a CW (will see if it gets named one in the post-season analysis) styled warming came from behind the vortex and allowed the EPO ridge to break off into the west based NAO regions. That wouldn't happen this go-around. We would need the vortex to essentially diminish.

 

Possibly ... I see a spatial contention brewing if the EPO established a positive anomaly and NW deep layer flow through W--NW Canada, first.  

 

Here's what I'm stinking:  if the GEF cluster is essentially right, and the NCEP channel at CDC is also right about the EPO, these will tend to trump or at least dampen the effectiveness of the tropical forcing from the westerly phases of the MJO.   

 

I have mentioned numerous eye-glassed-over times in the past that the MJO is really a conditional correlator on the pattern.  There are too many moments of indirection between it and the AO, such that if the polar field indices are purturbed over Asian, that may transmit a damping force via the WPO domain space. 

 

It's also why I think folks (in general) should pay attention to the WPO, because their correlation is + for a reason.   MJO is active, but the WPO is falling, as is the EPO.  You end up with the AB phase of the North Pacific oscillation and - oops.  

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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Does anyone have any thermometer suggestions? I got one for Christmas with a wireless display and the numbers are way too cold. I calibrated and it still is giving me funky readings at night. Last night it got down to -1 which def is too cold.

 

Any suggestions on a better one?

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Does anyone have any thermometer suggestions? I got one for Christmas with a wireless display and the numbers are way too cold. I calibrated and it still is giving me funky readings at night. Last night it got down to -1 which def is too cold.

 

Any suggestions on a better one?

 

 

 

Is the siting ok? Does it have any shielding for radiation?

 

Both of those could cause it to go nuts at night for readings.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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Posted

Is the siting ok? Does it have any shielding for radiation?

 

Both of those could cause it to go nuts at night for readings.

 

I had it at like 4 feet AGL on a fence post so I thought maybe that was the reason it was low. But I put my quick-response Kestrel next to it and it was like 6 or 7F warmer. Today I moved it to a post on my neighbors yard and put it at 2M with a zip tie.

 

I have a shield that I haven't put up yet... but I figure at night it shouldn't matter much. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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Does anyone have any thermometer suggestions? I got one for Christmas with a wireless display and the numbers are way too cold. I calibrated and it still is giving me funky readings at night. Last night it got down to -1 which def is too cold.

 

Any suggestions on a better one?

 

I thought BDL was 0 last night, seems about right being in the country

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