The First Week of Jan..Bitter cold,Balls drop as we ring in 2013

[Ginx snewx]

100% spot on!! I can't tell you the number of times the total snowfall used for Groton is a total that was called in hours before the snow ended! It's comical to see! I try to call in the Westerly totals as often as I can but due to my travel schedule, it's not always possible. In addition, about the half the time, my totals never make it to the list - even though I am a trained skywarn spotter.

My 16 year average is in the low to mid 30's - I am about 1 mile inland. I do agree with the terminal moraine concept as well. I am on that ridge and on the 26th event where I had almost an inch of very wet snow, about 1/2 mile down the road (and off the moraine) there was only a few wet flakes mixed in and along the beaches, it never snowed.

Snowfall totals are lower from Point Judith through about Little Compton. I have friends and family living there to verify however very rarely are there snowfall totals reported from that area. When was the last time you saw Jamestown report a snowfall total? I would find it hard to believe that Beavertail has more snow annually than Watch Hill.

I have no bias in trying to inflate my snowfall totals as I am NOT a snow lover. I have no appreciation whatsoever for cold/snow/ or winter. I wish I could report that my area averages 0" per year but that is not the case. I do however have an interest in making sure the right data is reported, calculated and represented when used for these types of discussions.

Some of us are totally aware that those who think GON, NL and WST on the water represent all of SE CT SW RI are mistaken. The lack of consistent snow record keeping off the water has led to some misconceptions. I could argue that places like Maxson Hill in Ashaway a mere 5 miles from the ocean as the crow flies doubles GON. Missing reports are a huge problem everywhere.

[danstorm]

All I've said is "milder weather moving in" and "above normal temperatures". 

 

You may as well be diagnosing him with a terminal illness.

[Brian5671]

TORCH time.   Torches always verify in the longer range...it's amazing eh?

[ORH_wxman]

I know Scott mentioned it earlier, but I just saw the GEFS...can't believe how bullish they are now on the -NAO. Def weren't like that before. That would be a pretty sweet setup for the 2nd half of the month with the huge -EPO ridge to go with it.

 

Hopefully the Euro keeps trending toward it. Euro ensembles at 00z were a bit more bullish on the -NAO...but you'd want to see for several runs.

[ctsnowstorm628]

hope i'm wrong, but feel like it's going to be a while before we see another one of those after this current cold shot. 

 

Like this current shot? If so, I agree...we got a piece of that vortex to finally drop down over NNE. Hasn't been this cold in a while. 

[CT Rain]

You may as well be diagnosing him with a terminal illness.

 

lol good point. It's too bad he's melting down after above normal snowfall through today. 

 

I'm hoping to keep the rain at bay before next Thursday as I'd like to go skiing but we'll see. 

[Ginx snewx]

53 lock it up.

[CT Rain]

I know Scott mentioned it earlier, but I just saw the GEFS...can't believe how bullish they are now on the -NAO. Def weren't like that before. That would be a pretty sweet setup for the 2nd half of the month with the huge -EPO ridge to go with it.

 

Hopefully the Euro keeps trending toward it. Euro ensembles at 00z were a bit more bullish on the -NAO...but you'd want to see for several runs.

 

The D15 GEFS looks good. Let's hope it verifies. 

[ctsnowstorm628]

Some of us are totally aware that those who think GON, NL and WST on the water represent all of SE CT SW RI are mistaken. The lack of consistent snow record keeping off the water has led to some misconceptions. I could argue that places like Maxson Hill in Ashaway a mere 5 miles from the ocean as the crow flies doubles GON. Missing reports are a huge problem everywhere.

 

LOL it's so sad. Most of SE CT got 9-12" with this last storm...did I see a 6.3" at GON? I can't remember. GON is an effin sandbar.

[weatherMA]

Some of us are totally aware that those who think GON, NL and WST on the water represent all of SE CT SW RI are mistaken. The lack of consistent snow record keeping off the water has led to some misconceptions. I could argue that places like Maxson Hill in Ashaway a mere 5 miles from the ocean as the crow flies doubles GON. Missing reports are a huge problem everywhere.

 

It's like that everywhere too. My aunt lives literally on the ocean in Saco, ME. I asked them about the 12/26 storm while I was there this past weekend and they said they had 100% rain. They drove out to the main road literally 400-500' from their house and it was +SN. They had 0" at their house from that storm and less than a half mile inland had 10". You could see it too. Driving to their house was like a 18" snow pack, you get to their house and there was maybe 4-5". 

 

That stuff is so cool to me.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I know Scott mentioned it earlier, but I just saw the GEFS...can't believe how bullish they are now on the -NAO. Def weren't like that before. That would be a pretty sweet setup for the 2nd half of the month with the huge -EPO ridge to go with it.

 

Hopefully the Euro keeps trending toward it. Euro ensembles at 00z were a bit more bullish on the -NAO...but you'd want to see for several runs.

 

Probably too fast but I bet towards the 18-20 we're doing fine. 

[ctsnowstorm628]

It's like that everywhere too. My aunt lives literally on the ocean in Saco, ME. I asked them about the 12/26 storm while I was there this past weekend and they said they had 100% rain. They drove out to the main road literally 400-500' from their house and it was +SN. They had 0" at their house from that storm and less than a half mile inland had 10". You could see it too. Driving to their house was like a 18" snow pack, you get to their house and there was maybe 4-5". 

 

That stuff is so cool to me.

 

Thats why I'm doing weather. The gradient at my house for this last storm was sick. 5" on the water...11" 5 miles inland.  And honestly, if it wasn't snowing 2-3"/hr the gradient would have been way greater. I got 9.5" at my place 3 miles inland.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I start a thread we get our first regionwide snowstorm.  Kev starts a thread and we get a torch.

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

LOL it's so sad. Most of SE CT got 9-12" with this last storm...did I see a 6.3" at GON? I can't remember. GON is an effin sandbar.

8.3

[Typhoon Tip]

Haven't been around, looking for new job and that frustration... But, I'm not seeing a warm-up being too exotic here.  

 

The MJO certainly supports an eastern N/A warm anomaly as it steadily strengthens into Phase 4/5 and migrates into 6, but that may be the only for warmth we are looking at.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Haven't been around, looking for new job and that frustration... But, I'm not seeing a warm-up being too exotic here.  

 

The MJO certainly supports an eastern N/A warm anomaly as it steadily strengthens into Phase 4/5 and migrates into 6, but that may be the only for warmth we are looking at.

Sorry to hear, John...I knew that pain for a few years.

[Cold Miser]

that's what happens when you expect every month to be jan 2011

 

And ... POOF!

Just like that, forky appears to revel in the torch talk.

[NJwinter23]

Meanwhile, the euro ensembles are playing "escape to Alaska" once again in the 11-15 day.. they did this at the end of last nights run and are doing it even more so at 12z today. That is awful if true.

 

It literally looks like a repeat of mid-late Dec when the PV escaped northwest towards siberia, and higher heights formed across the NAO regions...

[Typhoon Tip]

Sorry to hear, John...I knew that pain for a few years.

 

yeah, thx Ray.  it just happened yesterday.  Can't say I was totally blind-sided;  I ignored the signs though because I really liked where I was working and didn't want to face the reality of the thing.

 

my company lost like some 20% of their revenue stream because they lost a bid on a contract.  I asked a couple managers at the water cooler (so to speak...) how it may effect, and was essentially lied too - either that or they had their heads up their asses.   sure enough... 

 

Not just that, but the department I was working in was dissolved some 6 mo ago.  I was absorbed into a pure developer role, but immediately, my assignments were lower visibility and quite objectively ...dumb, for lack of better word.    I started getting itchy feelings then - again, didn't want to admit it.  My own personal doctrine that I developed some years ago for dealing with the corporate culture of our society:   The instant you feel something might be amiss, there is no "might be" about it!  Something is very f up and you'd better get your ducks in row, and get your ass into a new gig with speed.  Don't leave anything up to the chance, or believing you're just being paranoid....  You're not - those creepy vibes you are getting are because you are unconsciously tuned in; and it doesn't even have to be that complicated.   I remember sitting in a meeting 2 mo ago; a colleague that HAS been getting assigned higher visibility project agenda was getting accolades from our boss - good for her but inside in the moment I was going, " W T F !"   I mean...if you get into a string of those nuanced scenarios like that, it's a trend that's there for a reason.  So I knew all that, but made the mistake of ignoring my own doctrine.  Otherwise, I would have probably transitioned out of that place before it came to meaning no job. Dumb!

 

so me and several others were kicked to the curb yesterday.   

[Clinch Leatherwood]

And ... POOF!

Just like that, forky appears to revel in the torch talk.

 

 

We need someone to counterbalance the nonsense.  We've got a mild period coming there's really no way around it.  Not the end of the Mayan world, winter will return.

[HM]

Yeah, it really hasn't done much thanks to the amplitude being relatively flat. But, just nothing what the progs have..we'll see if they indeed get a little amplitude or stay flat.

 

I can't believe my eyes today but it is the first time I looked at things and it didn't look bootleg. The MJO is legit this time between 80-100E, on the heels of a KW. The question now is: will it survive the trip out of the warm pool region?

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Meanwhile, the euro ensembles are playing "escape to Alaska" once again in the 11-15 day.. they did this at the end of last nights run and are doing it even more so at 12z today. That is awful if true.

 

Can you elaborate?  I'm not sure what you mean.

 

Thanks

[40/70 Benchmark]

yeah, thx Ray.  it just happened yesterday.  Can't say I was totally blind-sided;  I ignored the signs though because I really liked where I was working and didn't want to face the reality of the thing.

 

my company lost like some 20% of their revenue stream because they lost a bid on a contract.  I asked a couple managers at the water cooler (so to speak...) how it may effect, and was essentially lied too - either that or they had their heads up the asses.   sure enough... 

 

Not just that, but the department I was working in was dissolved some 6 mo ago.  I was absorbed into a pure developer role, but immediately, my assignments were lower visibility and quite objectively ...dumb, for lack of better word.    I started getting itchy feelings then - again, didn't want to admit it.  My own personal doctrine that I developed some years ago for dealing with the corporate culture of our society:   The instant you feels something might be amiss, there is not "might be" about it!  Something is very f up and you'd better get your ducks in row, and get your ass into a new gig with speed.  Don't leave anything up to the chance, or believing you're just being paranoid....  You're not - those creepy vibes you are getting are because you are unconsciously tuned in; and it doesn't even have to be that complicated.   I remember sitting in a meeting 2 mo ago; a colleague that HAS been getting assigned higher visibility project agenda was getting accolades from our boss - good for her but inside in the moment I was going, " W T F !"   I mean...if you get into a string of those nuanced scenarios like that, it's a trend that's there for a reason.  So I knew all that, but made the mistake of ignoring my own doctrine.  Otherwise, I would have probably transitioned out of that place before it came to meaning no job. Dumb!

 

so me and several others were kicked to the curb yesterday.   

That is why I'm glad that I'm federal...pay leaves something to be desired, but job sercurity coupled with plenty of opportunity for upward mobilty.

Oh yea, it's cold.

[pondo1000]

yeah, thx Ray.  it just happened yesterday.  Can't say I was totally blind-sided;  I ignored the signs though because I really liked where I was working and didn't want to face the reality of the thing.

 

my company lost like some 20% of their revenue stream because they lost a bid on a contract.  I asked a couple managers at the water cooler (so to speak...) how it may effect, and was essentially lied too - either that or they had their heads up their asses.   sure enough... 

 

Not just that, but the department I was working in was dissolved some 6 mo ago.  I was absorbed into a pure developer role, but immediately, my assignments were lower visibility and quite objectively ...dumb, for lack of better word.    I started getting itchy feelings then - again, didn't want to admit it.  My own personal doctrine that I developed some years ago for dealing with the corporate culture of our society:   The instant you feels something might be amiss, there is not "might be" about it!  Something is very f up and you'd better get your ducks in row, and get your ass into a new gig with speed.  Don't leave anything up to the chance, or believing you're just being paranoid....  You're not - those creepy vibes you are getting are because you are unconsciously tuned in; and it doesn't even have to be that complicated.   I remember sitting in a meeting 2 mo ago; a colleague that HAS been getting assigned higher visibility project agenda was getting accolades from our boss - good for her but inside in the moment I was going, " W T F !"   I mean...if you get into a string of those nuanced scenarios like that, it's a trend that's there for a reason.  So I knew all that, but made the mistake of ignoring my own doctrine.  Otherwise, I would have probably transitioned out of that place before it came to meaning no job. Dumb!

 

so me and several others were kicked to the curb yesterday.   

 

I hope you land on your feet soon! Where were you working? If you cannot say, I understand.

[NJwinter23]

the 11-15 day ensembles literally look like a repeat of mid-late Dec when the PV escaped northwest towards siberia, and higher heights formed across the NAO regions...

[SouthCoastMA]

Can you elaborate? I'm not sure what you mean.

Thanks

Hope he's not referring to the death vortex escape to Alaska.

[NJwinter23]

Can you elaborate?  I'm not sure what you mean.

 

Thanks

 

"Escape to Alaska" was a blockbuster hit last winter

[Cold Miser]

We need someone to counterbalance the nonsense.  We've got a mild period coming there's really no way around it.  Not the end of the Mayan world, winter will return.

 

Mild except for Tolland.

[Damage In Tolland]

Hopefully a repeat of late December then. That was a great last 8-9 days for us

[40/70 Benchmark]

Hopefully a repeat of late December then. That was a great last 8-9 days for us

Great for you....ok for me.

I'd fare better this time, though...cooler ssts.