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The First Week of Jan..Bitter cold,Balls drop as we ring in 2013

Damage In Tolland

By Damage In Tolland,
in New England

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

The pattern is certainly WAY better than at any point last year. It seems pretty likely that D6-D10 will be above normal and possibly significantly so. I'm not sure what Kevin is looking at... as every signal points to this.

 

Moving past D10 we do have some cold to our west so it will be a matter of where the storm track sets up. It's certainly possible D11-D15 turns ugly but it's also possible inland areas especially have some fun with a SWFE or 2. 

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danstorm

danstorm

Posted
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+35 on high temps...so the EURO shows upper 60s to 70 up here? lol

 

Not +35 (though this past March wasn't that warm for that long), but the Euro advertises +15-30 departures beginning in the Upper Midwest around D7 then gliding east to our neck of the woods D9/10.  850s definitely break 8C for most of NE.

 

There may be a boundary that sets up over C/NNE at some point in there (as Will was alluding to)... but further south, it's a disaster.  If the storm winds up as advertised, everywhere in our hood will have at least a day of massive warmth. 

 

Verbatim, I would fully expect places like NYC/PHL/DC to be in the 60s (perhaps well into the 60s) late next week ... possibly HFD ... less likely BOS but still possible.

 

Also, the OH Valley will get supremely torched... Cincy/Pittsburgh, etc... will tickle 70 with 850s 12+.  it's really a classic setup for supreme warmth down there.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

Not +35 (though this past March wasn't that warm for that long), but the Euro advertises +15-30 departures beginning in the Upper Midwest around D7 then gliding east to our neck of the woods D9/10.  850s definitely break 8C for most of NE.

 

There may be a boundary that sets up over C/NNE at some point in there (as Will was alluding to)... but further south, it's a disaster.  If the storm winds up as advertised, everywhere in our hood will have at least a day of massive warmth. 

 

Verbatim, I would fully expect places like NYC/PHL/DC to be in the 60s (perhaps well into the 60s) late next week ... possibly HFD ... less likely BOS but still possible.

 

Also, the OH Valley will get supremely torched... Cincy/Pittsburgh, etc... will tickle 70 with 850s 12+.  it's really a classic setup for supreme warmth down there.

 

Stay the course. No model or ensemble support. Tossed.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

Not +35 (though this past March wasn't that warm for that long), but the Euro advertises +15-30 departures beginning in the Upper Midwest around D7 then gliding east to our neck of the woods D9/10.  850s definitely break 8C for most of NE.

 

There may be a boundary that sets up over C/NNE at some point in there (as Will was alluding to)... but further south, it's a disaster.  If the storm winds up as advertised, everywhere in our hood will have at least a day of massive warmth. 

 

Verbatim, I would fully expect places like NYC/PHL/DC to be in the 60s (perhaps well into the 60s) late next week ... possibly HFD ... less likely BOS but still possible.

 

Also, the OH Valley will get supremely torched... Cincy/Pittsburgh, etc... will tickle 70 with 850s 12+.  it's really a classic setup for supreme warmth down there.

 

a couple of the euro ens members actually had ~60F in parts of SNE around day 9/10 - but of course there's a crap load of members in there and there are always some outliers. 

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weatherMA

weatherMA

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Posted

Not +35 (though this past March wasn't that warm for that long), but the Euro advertises +15-30 departures beginning in the Upper Midwest around D7 then gliding east to our neck of the woods D9/10.  850s definitely break 8C for most of NE.

 

There may be a boundary that sets up over C/NNE at some point in there (as Will was alluding to)... but further south, it's a disaster.  If the storm winds up as advertised, everywhere in our hood will have at least a day of massive warmth. 

 

Verbatim, I would fully expect places like NYC/PHL/DC to be in the 60s (perhaps well into the 60s) late next week ... possibly HFD ... less likely BOS but still possible.

 

Also, the OH Valley will get supremely torched... Cincy/Pittsburgh, etc... will tickle 70 with 850s 12+.  it's really a classic setup for supreme warmth down there.

Yeah no argument it's extreme warmth...but for this area it really is most likely not going to come close to March 2012. I wish I had the exact numbers, but I believe I had 5 (maybe 6?) straight days of low-mid 70s. I wish I had highs from that...but even if they were 70...that's close to +30 for mid March in this area.

 

It's obviously still 5 days away from the start of the warmth...but I don't think we see those kind of extreme departures in SNE (where the greatest positive departures were in SNE)...but we will see those kind of departures in the OH valley. This could be more impressive then March 2012 for them.

 

March 2012 is just a warm spell that's hard to match in SNE IMO.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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I expect an above normal few days next week. Never said otherwise. But these ideas of 50s and 60's getting into Sne is absurd. Nothing shows that. If one day ahead of a runner we hit 54 is that really a big deal? It's right back to winter after that. What is everyone so upset about lol? And many if you are mets

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

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Posted

I expect an above normal few days next week. Never said otherwise. But these ideas of 50s and 60's getting into Sne is absurd. Nothing shows that. If one day ahead of a runner we hit 54 is that really a big deal? It's right back to winter after that. What is everyone so upset about lol? And many if you are mets

 

starting to cave. 

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weatherMA

weatherMA

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Posted

March 2012 isn't happening again for a long time...the stdev of the departures was incredible.  6 straight days of record warmth in BUF...it was even more impressive over the OV/Midwest than it was in SNE.

 

really? I always thought SNE/CNE which had temps in the 70s to near 80 had the most extreme departures. On highs it was over +25 everywhere to as much as +40 in parts of CNE.

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forkyfork

forkyfork

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Posted

I expect an above normal few days next week. Never said otherwise. But these ideas of 50s and 60's getting into Sne is absurd. Nothing shows that. If one day ahead of a runner we hit 54 is that really a big deal? It's right back to winter after that. What is everyone so upset about lol? And many if you are mets

 

this shows 9 straight days of above normal for you

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSTDEP2_12z/tloop.html

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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Posted

I expect an above normal few days next week. Never said otherwise. But these ideas of 50s and 60's getting into Sne is absurd. Nothing shows that. If one day ahead of a runner we hit 54 is that really a big deal? It's right back to winter after that. What is everyone so upset about lol? And many if you are mets

 

This is what everyone expects. What are you talking about? 

 

We're all hoping it's short lived but that's not a certainty, unfortunately.  It's just an ugly stretch... I'm not sure why you're getting so upset and unhinged over the above normal pattern coming in after you picked up 8" of snow last weekend.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Throwing out March 2012 as an analog to this warmup is like throwing out January 2004 as an analog to the current cold snap...they aren't in the same ball park.

 

 

We'd need several days in a row of like 67/45 to match that. Nothing comes even close to supporting that. Its a mild day 6-10...that's about all you can really say at this point.

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danstorm

danstorm

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Posted

I expect an above normal few days next week. Never said otherwise. But these ideas of 50s and 60's getting into Sne is absurd. Nothing shows that. If one day ahead of a runner we hit 54 is that really a big deal? It's right back to winter after that. What is everyone so upset about lol? And many if you are mets

 

How can you call something absurd and then suggest it'll happen???

 

And I don't think anyone is heartbroken (I'm certainly not, no snow cover to protect anyways) ... we're just pointing out a pattern that is building towards pretty anomalous warmth. 

 

Not forever... a few days... but it's coming. 

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forkyfork

forkyfork

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Posted

This is what everyone expects. What are you talking about? 

 

We're all hoping it's short lived but that's not a certainty, unfortunately.  It's just an ugly stretch... I'm not sure why you're getting so upset and unhinged over the above normal pattern coming in after you picked up 8" of snow last weekend.

 

that's what happens when you expect every month to be jan 2011

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

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Throwing out March 2012 as an analog to this warmup is like throwing out January 2004 as an analog to the current cold snap...they aren't in the same ball park.

 

 

We'd need several days in a row of like 67/45 to match that. Nothing comes even close to supporting that. Its a mild day 6-10...that's about all you can really say at this point.

 

It's one of the greatest heatwaves in recorded history.

 

 

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danstorm

danstorm

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Yeah no argument it's extreme warmth...but for this area it really is most likely not going to come close to March 2012. I wish I had the exact numbers, but I believe I had 5 (maybe 6?) straight days of low-mid 70s. I wish I had highs from that...but even if they were 70...that's close to +30 for mid March in this area.

 

It's obviously still 5 days away from the start of the warmth...but I don't think we see those kind of extreme departures in SNE (where the greatest positive departures were in SNE)...but we will see those kind of departures in the OH valley. This could be more impressive then March 2012 for them.

 

March 2012 is just a warm spell that's hard to match in SNE IMO.

 

Do I actually expect a repeat of Morch 12? Of course not... not in duration or magnitude.  That was ridiculous.

 

What I was saying is that the pattern reminds me a lot the March 2012 pattern with the polar jet basically retreating clear from the Lower 48 and a winter-like heat ridge developing...

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weatherMA

weatherMA

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Do I actually expect a repeat of Morch 12? Of course not... not in duration or magnitude.  That was ridiculous.

 

What I was saying is that the pattern reminds me a lot the March 2012 pattern with the polar jet basically retreating clear from the Lower 48 and a winter-like heat ridge developing...

 

Oh okay lol. Sorry, I misunderstood.

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danstorm

danstorm

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LOL...46 for a high at BDL. ORH will struggle to break 40 if the GFS is right.

 

I will always - ALWAYS - add 5-10+ degrees on MOS progs - especially towards the end of the period - in the face of big warmth from the SW.  Remember, MOS is weighted towards climo. 

 

It's a rule that can get screwed by BD fronts... but it typically verifies pretty well during most seasons.

 

Not trying to be forkyfork-lite here... just that if I had to throw a number up for BDL on the aforementioned 46 high day, it would be 52-54. 

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ctsnowstorm628

ctsnowstorm628

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Well, I'm just getting caught up on guidance and you can deff tell people are craving something significant...arguing over whether 850's on d10 are 7C or 11C :lol:

 

But for real, gotta watch for some onshore flow this time of the year...wouldn't surprise me if we kiss 50 on a day or two and thats it while BTV is similar before an arctic front comes through.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

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Well, I'm just getting caught up on guidance and you can deff tell people are craving something significant...arguing over whether 850's on d10 are 7C or 11C :lol:

 

But for real, gotta watch for some onshore flow this time of the year...wouldn't surprise me if we kiss 50 on a day or two and thats it while BTV is similar before an arctic front comes through.

 

hope i'm wrong, but feel like it's going to be a while before we see another one of those after this current cold shot. 

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