The First Week of Jan..Bitter cold,Balls drop as we ring in 2013

[weatherMA]

its an epic torch, maybe 60s into SNE.

 

On the warmest day it had +6 to +8 at 850 in SNE...60s seems a little overdone.

[CT Rain]

Impressive negative departures today. Turns out for BDL the warmer MET MOS was the way to go... GFS way overcorrected. Nice undercut for MOS for the overnight low. 

[ORH_wxman]

The Euro's first attempt at a cutter is pretty weak sauce...it actually hangs up the warm front south of us for most of it. That was the same system it tried to torch us with a few runs ago. The day 7 system.

 

This run, unlike the 00z...decides to wind up a much stronger cutter at D9-10 which would torch us pretty good before the cold front comes through.

 

 

I'm not sure if that will happen or not. We have no idea really. Just that we will get mild between day 6-10, but duration and magnitude is impossible to say yet.

[H2Otown_WX]

For those watching the score board... climo is 18/34 at BDL. 

 

Different year, same sh*t

[Tropopause_Fold]

On the warmest day it had +6 to +8 at 850 in SNE...60s seems a little overdone.

 

it's impossible to tell how mild it would be. it's just a warm look overall. who knows whether its cloudy and 40s or sunny 50s or drizzle and 39F. either way it's an extended period of above normal coming. 

[Damage In Tolland]

That would be incorrect. As usual. Looks like the Euro extends the warmth with another cutter into next weekend.

Funny how you never take days 7-10 as correct when it shows cold snow, but when it shows a few mild days its suddenly correct . Until it gets ensemble support its tossed . Sorry

[Tropopause_Fold]

Funny how you never take days 7-10 as correct when it shows cold snow, but when it shows a few mild days its suddenly correct . Until it gets ensemble support its tossed . Sorry

 

it has strong ensemble support. 

[Damage In Tolland]

The Euro's first attempt at a cutter is pretty weak sauce...it actually hangs up the warm front south of us for most of it. That was the same system it tried to torch us with a few runs ago. The day 7 system.

This run, unlike the 00z...decides to wind up a much stronger cutter at D9-10 which would torch us pretty good before the cold front comes through.

I'm not sure if that will happen or not. We have no idea really. Just that we will get mild between day 6-10, but duration and magnitude is impossible to say yet.

Ryan decided it was correct to dry hump the long range Euro today lol

[Quincy]

While the EC isn't as warm as it was in some aspects yesterday at 12z, it keeps the warmth around and instead of cooling us down next weekend, it brings another warm surge/cutter.

[weatherMA]

it's impossible to tell how mild it would be. it's just a warm look overall. who knows whether its cloudy and 40s or sunny 50s or drizzle and 39F. either way it's an extended period of above normal coming. 

 

Fair enough... even under perfect conditions I'm not sure it would be 60s in SNE verbatim on the GFS, but I see your point.

[Sugarloaf1989]

Current snow/ice cover situation here at my house:

 

[Damage In Tolland]

it has strong ensemble support.

For high heat days 7-10?

[weatherMA]

On the plus side I'm going skiing next week...maybe some nice spring skiing conditions? :sun:

[Quincy]

Fair enough... even under perfect conditions I'm not sure it would be 60s in SNE verbatim on the GFS, but I see your point.

 

In order to get 60F+ in these parts in January, you'd typically look for 850mb temps of 12C or higher under ideal conditions, but we just haven't seen that on any model. (yesterday's 12z EC came close, but only briefly)

[H2Otown_WX]

Fair enough... even under perfect conditions I'm not sure it would be 60s in SNE verbatim on the GFS, but I see your point.

Yeah it actually cooled @ 850 big time for the 10th in particular, cut 850s in half. But like Tropo said, who the heck knows if it would be sunny and 50s or mostly cloudy and 40s. If I had to guess, I'd say we'd have some onshore flow  that would produce a good deal of cloudiness..just purely speculation at this point though.

[Allsnow]

Record warmth at the end of the run, before cutter. Fwiw

[CT Rain]

it has strong ensemble support. 

 

Exactly it's a warm and likely snowless pattern. When climo is 18/34 if you rack up a bunch of 28/40 days that's pretty substantial warmth.

Certainly not high heat but it's an ugly pattern with strong ensemble and teleconnection support.

[Allsnow]

In order to get 60F+ in these parts in January, you'd typically look for 850mb temps of 12C or higher under ideal conditions, but we just haven't seen that on any model. (yesterday's 12z EC came close, but only briefly)

Dc and Baltimore going to torch!

[Tropopause_Fold]

For high heat days 7-10?

 

well high heat is all relative. but yeah pretty much. 

[OSUmetstud]

its an epic torch, maybe 60s into SNE.

 

thicknesses never get above 552 dm on the euro in SNE...i'd bet against 60s...but I wouldn't say they were impossible.

 

It shows low 50s in SW CT on 2 days at this point...colder north of there.

[CoastalWx]

For high heat days 7-10?

 

High heat? Just a mild pattern..possible warm for a day or two, but that's ugly..no matter what model. Just accept it and hope things get better after d10. This really is going as planned.

[weatherMA]

In order to get 60F+ in these parts in January, you'd typically look for 850mb temps of 12C or higher under ideal conditions, but we just haven't seen that on any model. (yesterday's 12z EC came close, but only briefly)

 

 

Yeah it actually cooled @ 850 big time for the 10th in particular, cut 850s in half. But like Tropo said, who the heck knows if it would be sunny and 50s or mostly cloudy and 40s. If I had to guess, I'd say we'd have some onshore flow  that would produce a good deal of cloudiness..just purely speculation at this point though.

 

Right...makes sense. I guess I should've just ignored noreaster27 who always thinks its a torch lol. All I was trying to say was 60s aren't really being modeled at all.

[ORH_wxman]

Fair enough... even under perfect conditions I'm not sure it would be 60s in SNE verbatim on the GFS, but I see your point.

 

 

 

GFS wouldnt come even close. It probably has trouble breaking 45F here on the GFS with that triple point low...Euro was warmer, probably hits 50+. I agree that 60+ would not happen on that prog. Need a bit more in the mid-levels for that.

[CT Rain]

High heat? Just a mild pattern..possible warm for a day or two, but that's ugly..no matter what model. Just accept it and hope things get better after d10. This really is going as planned.

 

We're really hoping at this point that the coming mild pattern can turn into a SWFE kind of pattern beyond D10 or D11. If we flip to the wrong side of the boundary post D11 we could really start tying the nooses. 

[dryslot]

Stay the course

[OSUmetstud]

I hope people realize it's significantly easier to predict general temperature anomalies at day 6 to 10 than it is to predict a snowstorm in the same range.

 

 

[Cold Miser]

+35 on high temps...so the EURO shows upper 60s to 70 up here? lol

Yikes.  That's a different story.  Disastah in the making.

 

Unforgettable fire on it's way.

[Cold Miser]

We're really hoping at this point that the coming mild pattern can turn into a SWFE kind of pattern beyond D10 or D11. If we flip to the wrong side of the boundary post D11 we could really start tying the nooses. 

 

lol. 

Keeping my epic 18" nov/ dec 2012 snow as a memory to the winter that almost was.

[RIcoastalWX]

Not too many folks understand that in SE CT and SW RI which do not have substantial record keeping, other than URI in Kingston and GON, that snow depths increase dramatically about 2 miles from the ocean. We used to use the terminal moraine as a break point, more often than not the marine air line was there in marginal situations. Perhaps the worst area of all would be the Point Judith to Newport RI area, as we see from some posters Narry Bay is a snow eater. Having said that the very best storms of my life were as a combo of wind,snow and surf right on the open ocean. My favorite totally immersed weather sensation is seeing 10-15 foot waves with winds gusting near hurricane force in Blizzard conditions.

100% spot on!!  I can't tell you the number of times the total snowfall used for Groton is a total that was called in hours before the snow ended!  It's comical to see!  I try to call in the Westerly totals as often as I can but due to my travel schedule, it's not always possible.  In addition, about the half the time, my totals never make it to the list - even though I am a trained skywarn spotter. 

 

My 16 year average is in the low to mid 30's - I am about 1 mile inland.  I do agree with the terminal moraine concept as well.  I am on that ridge and on the 26th event where I had almost an inch of very wet snow, about 1/2 mile down the road (and off the moraine) there was only a few wet flakes mixed in and along the beaches, it never snowed.

 

Snowfall totals are lower from Point Judith through about Little Compton.  I have friends and family living there to verify however very rarely are there snowfall totals reported from that area.  When was the last time you saw Jamestown report a snowfall total?   I would find it hard to believe that Beavertail has more snow annually than Watch Hill. 

 

I have no bias in trying to inflate my snowfall totals as I am NOT a snow lover.  I have no appreciation whatsoever for cold/snow/ or winter.  I wish I could report that my area averages 0" per year but that is not the case.  I do however have an interest in making sure the right data is reported, calculated and represented when used for these types of discussions.

[weatherMA]

GFS wouldnt come even close. It probably has trouble breaking 45F here on the GFS with that triple point low...Euro was warmer, probably hits 50+. I agree that 60+ would not happen on that prog. Need a bit more in the mid-levels for that.

Yeah...a few days in the 40s and maybe one near 50 is what I expect as of now. I will lose a lot of my snow...but the shadier areas will certainly still have some...esp. the 4" crust from 12/26.

Yikes.  That's a different story.  Disastah in the making.

 

Unforgettable fire on it's way.

EURO doesn't show that...I was just saying it would need to for it to be as extreme as the March torch of last year...its not. That was a 1 in 50 year torch honestly.