The First Week of Jan..Bitter cold,Balls drop as we ring in 2013

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just about all of the Cape averages over 30"...so yeah, SE CT near the coast is definitely worse. They average in the low to mid 20s right on the water.

Jesus..they are analagous to a suburb of DC and Philly lol

[CoastalWx]

The euro ensembles did show some troughing into AK and Bering Straits, but also tried to pump up ridging into Greenland. These could be features where models build up ridging in some spot and then 12 hrs later break it down and build it up somewhere else.

 

Also the GEFS continue to look decent post day 10. Nice -NAO. Whether it is right, who knows. Of concern is the MJO and the fact that is doesn't really support those looks..but MJO isn't everything and the forecasts in general have been too bullish with the amplitude.

[Ginx snewx]

Jesus..they are analagous to a suburb of DC and Philly lol

 

Well when he says the Cape that is not Ptown on the water either.

[OSUmetstud]

The euro ensembles did show some troughing into AK and Bering Straits, but also tried to pump up ridging into Greenland. These could be features where models build up ridging in some spot and then 12 hrs later break it down and build it up somewhere else.

 

Also the GEFS continue to look decent post day 10. Nice -NAO. Whether it is right, who knows. Of concern is the MJO and the fact that is doesn't really support those looks..but MJO isn't everything and the forecasts in general have been too bullish with the amplitude.

 

I think it generally argues for a slightly slower progression.  You can see even the -AO/AK ridging/-EPO the center of the country isn't super cold.  later January could be really fun if the MJO continues in Phase 7 and Phase 8.

 

Plains/midwest snowstorms at first...then NNE...then slowing slipping to the coast?

[Damage In Tolland]

BDL tickled down to 0 this morning. Pretty impressive

[Allsnow]

Record warmth on 12z euro for southeast. Looks about the same for northeast, as 00z

[Allsnow]

BDL tickled down to 0 this morning. Pretty impressive

Def not a muted chill

[mahk_webstah]

Yes it could be, I would hit this all day every day, tanking AO positive PNA, Neg AO, bring it on

 

strong gradient with a weak emerging -NAO...I like it.

[OSUmetstud]

Euro continues to the torch theme for next week.

 

 

 

 

[mahk_webstah]

Yes it could be, I would hit this all day every day, tanking AO positive PNA, Neg AO, bring it on

 

Is that a trough e of hawaii that would feed in southern stream energy split flow style?

[tamarack]

how so?  are you just talking about the well-advertised above normal pattern or what happens after?  It averages colder than normal over the east post-216 hours.

 

Yup.  For AUG it looks like post-216 thru 384 it's about -5 for temp with 1.5" qpf.  Unfortunately, it also has about 90% of that precip as rain.  Same as it has for this coming Wednesday night.  However, as others have posted above, it's good to see the pattern get active, and we'll wait and see where the storms go.  With this much cold air around, they can't all be warm...

[ORH_wxman]

The euro ensembles did show some troughing into AK and Bering Straits, but also tried to pump up ridging into Greenland. These could be features where models build up ridging in some spot and then 12 hrs later break it down and build it up somewhere else.

 

Also the GEFS continue to look decent post day 10. Nice -NAO. Whether it is right, who knows. Of concern is the MJO and the fact that is doesn't really support those looks..but MJO isn't everything and the forecasts in general have been too bullish with the amplitude.

 

 

 

The MJO has been pretty much a non-player thus far. Not only have the amplitude forecasts been too amped, we've also seen some faux signals. Some feature "forces" the MJO into a certain phase when the "true" MJO isn't really there.

 

It will be interesting to see how this particular forecast MJO ends up looking both on the charts and how it affects our sensible wx.

[Cold Miser]

Yes it could be, I would hit this all day every day, tanking AO positive PNA, Neg AO, bring it on

Doesn't look horrific at all.  Not sure what Nick is referring to.

 

Edit:  Meant Ryan, not Nick.

[OSUmetstud]

here comes a cutter on the euro at 216.

 

 

[Tropopause_Fold]

this sucks. 

[CT Rain]

Ugh the Euro stays the course. What a disaster. 

[dryslot]

Yup Winter cancel, Everyone move along

[40/70 Benchmark]

Bring on the torch....may as well without snow

[weatherMA]

Doesn't look horrific at all.  Not sure what Nick is referring to.

 

Edit:  Meant Ryan, not Nick.

 

Yeah...even the warm-up had peak temperatures of like upper 40s to 50. Maybe low to mid 50s for LL.

[danstorm]

Man oh man... Euro with the Wide Mouth Can delivering impressive warmth for most of the Lower 48 in the extended.

 

It's like Morch 12 sans duration.

 

 

[CoastalWx]

The MJO has been pretty much a non-player thus far. Not only have the amplitude forecasts been too amped, we've also seen some faux signals. Some feature "forces" the MJO into a certain phase when the "true" MJO isn't really there.

 

It will be interesting to see how this particular forecast MJO ends up looking both on the charts and how it affects our sensible wx.

 

Yeah, it really hasn't done much thanks to the amplitude being relatively flat. But, just nothing what the progs have..we'll see if they indeed get a little amplitude or stay flat.

[CoastalWx]

Pretty much as planned so far.

[CT Rain]

Man oh man... Euro with the Wide Mouth Can delivering impressive warmth for most of the Lower 48 in the extended.

 

It's like Morch 12 sans duration.

 

Jesus just devastating. That is an awful pattern. 

[weatherMA]

Man oh man... Euro with the Wide Mouth Can delivering impressive warmth for most of the Lower 48 in the extended.

 

It's like Morch 12 sans duration.

 

+35 on high temps...so the EURO shows upper 60s to 70 up here? lol

[NorEaster27]

Yeah...even the warm-up had peak temperatures of like upper 40s to 50. Maybe low to mid 50s for LL.

its an epic torch, maybe 60s into SNE.

[CoastalWx]

Nice to see Euro back off one more notch on the warmth. Now just a few days of 40's before winter return. Not bad at all

 

Hope you took pics of the sled trails.

[CT Rain]

Nice to see Euro back off one more notch on the warmth. Now just a few days of 40's before winter return. Not bad at all

 

That would be incorrect. As usual. Looks like the Euro extends the warmth with another cutter into next weekend.

[40/70 Benchmark]

60 sounds grrrrrrreat!

[dryslot]

May even be able to get a lesco treatment down

[CT Rain]

For those watching the score board... climo is 18/34 at BDL.