The First Week of Jan..Bitter cold,Balls drop as we ring in 2013

[radarman]

Hey Will, did you make this?

 

That's too high for the valley.   I'd guess the average is around 40" +- a couple inches, not 50-60"

[ORH_wxman]

You think the 1-2 day mild up will melt all of our snow?

 

 

It depends where you are. There are actually signs of a sfc warm front getting hung up for a time near us. If you end up south of that for an extra 12 hours...you might lose a lot more than folks to the north.

 

I certainly think most of N ORH county/Monads/Berkshires will hang on...esp since the much denser pack underneath the fluffier snow is deeper. You'll prob hold on where you are too. But certainly no guarantees. If we get a nasty developing low to the west that spikes us to 50F dewpoints for 12-16 hours, then all bets are off.

[ORH_wxman]

That's too high for the valley.   I'd guess the average is around 40" +- a couple inches, not 50-60"

 

 

 

BDL averages 49"...I highly doubt Springfield is 40". Though my revised map has them in the upper 40s and not over 50".

 

 

I'm at work right now though so I can't post the more recent one.

[Damage In Tolland]

It depends where you are. There are actually signs of a sfc warm front getting hung up for a time near us. If you end up south of that for an extra 12 hours...you might lose a lot more than folks to the north.

I certainly think most of N ORH county/Monads/Berkshires will hang on...esp since the much denser pack underneath the fluffier snow is deeper. You'll prob hold on where you are too. But certainly no guarantees. If we get a nasty developing low to the west that spikes us to 50F dewpoints for 12-16 hours, then all bets are off.

Yeah that's my one worry if something cuts and high dews us. If its just a meh dirty mild up then we can probably escape with some left

[ChrisM]

BDL averages 49"...I highly doubt Springfield is 40". Though my revised map has them in the upper 40s and not over 50".

 

 

I'm at work right now though so I can't post the more recent one.

 

I'll try to remind you to post it later if you could, I have to work til 8 tonight anyway so I'll be around after that.  Your old map had me solidly in the 60-70 range and almost in the 70-80. 

[ORH_wxman]

I'll try to remind you to post it later if you could, I have to work til 8 tonight anyway so I'll be around after that.  Your old map had me solidly in the 60-70 range and almost in the 70-80. 

 

 

 

Well there's definitely a tight gradient near you. You go 2 towns and about 10 miles to your northwest and the avg seasonal snowfall prob increases by 20-25".  

[ChrisM]

Well there's definitely a tight gradient near you. You go 2 towns and about 10 miles to your northwest and the avg seasonal snowfall prob increases by 20-25".  

 

yeah, dunno if you saw yesterday but I made a post about two towns to my nw being Norfolk lol...would be nice.  What are "requirements" to get upslope enhancement?  Like...MRG used to talk about getting upslope all the time and his elevation is only 300' higher than mine.  Is it mostly dependent on the terrain around you?  To my west the valley drops 600' into Torrington over about 3/4 of a mile (horizontal) distance.  Could that steep rise be enough to provide extra lift?  I'm trying to understand upslope more in smaller scale instances...obviously I get what happens at places like Stowe lol.

[mahk_webstah]

Is it true that if we get the EPO ridge, the trough axis in the middle of the country and some SE Ridge, that this could create a gradient pattern for New England.  Storms will want to cut but then cold highs in SE Canada will force redevelopment on the coast probably too late for the MA but just in time for NNE CNE and maybe SNE?  Is that the set up we are headed to next weekend (MLK)?  And then would it not be favored that the trough would move east and we would all get cold?  It would seem the transition point as the trough moves east would give us a shot at a strong coastal storm....perhaps around Jan 20?  

 

Perhaps this is best case but it seems reasonable.  Thereafter we hope blocking kicks in to hold the trough for a while and give us chances.

[ChrisM]

Even a place like Goshen would be cool to live in around here or Cornwall...that's about 6 miles as the crow flies from me.  They even probably get 10-15" more annually from rotting LES.  I get LES pretty often but it definitely loses its punch.

[radarman]

BDL averages 49"...I highly doubt Springfield is 40". Though my revised map has them in the upper 40s and not over 50".

 

 

I'm at work right now though so I can't post the more recent one.

 

As usual I'll defer to you on it, although BDLs notorious slantsticker is not entirely myth IMO.  I'd be shocked if it was 50"+ in Noho & Amherst, but wouldn't be the first time I've been off base.

[ORH_wxman]

Is it true that if we get the EPO ridge, the trough axis in the middle of the country and some SE Ridge, that this could create a gradient pattern for New England.  Storms will want to cut but then cold highs in SE Canada will force redevelopment on the coast probably too late for the MA but just in time for NNE CNE and maybe SNE?  Is that the set up we are headed to next weekend (MLK)?  And then would it not be favored that the trough would move east and we would all get cold?  It would seem the transition point as the trough moves east would give us a shot at a strong coastal storm....perhaps around Jan 20?  

 

Perhaps this is best case but it seems reasonable.  Thereafter we hope blocking kicks in to hold the trough for a while and give us chances.

 

 

 

Yes, a stout -EPO ridge over the PAC with a trough over the inter-mountain west would def teleconnect to a SE ridge and a gradient pattern over the northeast. How far north or south that gradient is would just be at the mercy of whatever NAO ridging we get and/or large PV lobes spreading SE into eastern Canada from Hudson Bay.

 

 

I'm cautiously optimistic for a nice period at some point later this month...hard to say exactly when it comes in. The Ensembles are looking more and more faovrable for an extended -EPO period...but we know how things can always change when we are 10+ days out.

[CoastalWx]

well it's good to hear your optimism. i guess i'm not as enthusiastic about it right now...but doesn't mean i'll stop watching.

I think it depends where you are too. I actually thought they improved a bit, but personally for me....I would like to see them colder.

[ORH_wxman]

As usual I'll defer to you on it, although BDLs notorious slantsticker is not entirely myth IMO.  I'd be shocked if it was 50"+ in Noho & Amherst, but wouldn't be the first time I've been off base.

 

Yeah I've allowed for the possibility that BDL runs a tad high...which is why my newer map has a chunk of the southern MA valley there in the 40s.

 

But I do think 40" would be too low for CEF/BAF. the old Springfield coop ran at about 47" per year. Amherst was around 45"....Coops on the flip side can run notoriously too low as they often just measure once per day at the same exact time. Some of them are very diligent snow observers, but many are not.

[Cold Miser]

Yeah that's my one worry if something cuts and high dews us. If its just a meh dirty mild up then we can probably escape with some left

 

forky says you lose it ALL.

[Logan11]

The 10F afternoon in Krakow, Poland with thick fog cut through me more than the -11F when I walked out there earlier. The dry cold is just much more bearable.

 

 

Easy to take though dews are so low, walk this morning was no big deal at all, its those 30 degree ne wind at 25 days that seem to cut right through me like a knife.  This weather is great for getting out and enjoying life, I am positive that all the people who love cold will be out as much as possible today, heading out to grind the axe myself, get out there and enjoy it folks!

Best Winter Ever!!!

 

 

[radarman]

Yeah I've allowed for the possibility that BDL runs a tad high...which is why my newer map has a chunk of the southern MA valley there in the 40s.

 

But I do think 40" would be too low for CEF/BAF. the old Springfield coop ran at about 47" per year. Amherst was around 45"....Coops on the flip side can run notoriously too low as they often just measure once per day at the same exact time. Some of them are very diligent snow observers, but many are not.

 

I think I may just be jaded because up here where the valley narrows the shadowing effect can be worse, but the temps are still more in line with BDL/CEF than ORE.  Also, outside the benchmark tracks often have precip shield cutoffs fairly close by, whereas huggers normally flip quickly.  I know the map can't realistically account for the nuances of everybody's back yard.  Northampton is a great town but just an awful place for snow relatively speaking.

[Tropopause_Fold]

I think it depends where you are too. I actually thought they improved a bit, but personally for me....I would like to see them colder.

 

yeah geography applies. 

 

i think the pattern will be fairly active which will help (obviously) and is a positive. after we get passed this next 7+ day stretch we should see more storminess appear and for some regions of NE that's good enough to keep threats going.

 

there's also going to be arctic air dislodging into W. Canada and down into the plains/west - so i guess if that can spill over the top into E. Canada that would increase our chances locally.

 

my concern is we're starting to see - for the first time in quite some time - a surge in the MJO and guidance is heading stoutly into 4/5/6. and the ec/ec ens has lead the way with this - gefs caving on it quickly now. and with ec ens having above or well above normal low level temps in SE Canada / E US all the way out to the end of the run...just makes me meh. i just hope we don't end up with a boat load of bitter air stuck over the border in W canada and have a series of warm cutters during the second half of the month. 

[Sugarloaf1989]

Hey can you take a current snowpack measurement and let us know what it is?

I have 7-7.5" of new snow OTG and 2-2.5" of old snowpack OTG. The rough estimate for snowcover here is between 9-10". With the December 26th storm bringing 5" of snow, followed by rain, then 1" of new snow and a re-freeze, the snowcover underneath the 11" dump is very uneven.

[Quincy]

FWIW, an approximate map for average annual snowfall across Connecticut. (not sure if I posted this before)

[Damage In Tolland]

FWIW, an approximate map for average annual snowfall across Connecticut. (not sure if I posted this before)

Looks good!! But wait till Will sees this lol

[mahk_webstah]

Yes, a stout -EPO ridge over the PAC with a trough over the inter-mountain west would def teleconnect to a SE ridge and a gradient pattern over the northeast. How far north or south that gradient is would just be at the mercy of whatever NAO ridging we get and/or large PV lobes spreading SE into eastern Canada from Hudson Bay.

 

 

I'm cautiously optimistic for a nice period at some point later this month...hard to say exactly when it comes in. The Ensembles are looking more and more faovrable for an extended -EPO period...but we know how things can always change when we are 10+ days out.

 

Thanks Will...I wanted to see if I was understanding this, and what to look for.  I really like gradient patterns up here...coastals are great but we can get screwed over up if the blocking gets too strong.  I like a pattern that features safe.

[CoastalWx]

yeah geography applies. 

 

i think the pattern will be fairly active which will help (obviously) and is a positive. after we get passed this next 7+ day stretch we should see more storminess appear and for some regions of NE that's good enough to keep threats going.

 

there's also going to be arctic air dislodging into W. Canada and down into the plains/west - so i guess if that can spill over the top into E. Canada that would increase our chances locally.

 

my concern is we're starting to see - for the first time in quite some time - a surge in the MJO and guidance is heading stoutly into 4/5/6. and the ec/ec ens has lead the way with this - gefs caving on it quickly now. and with ec ens having above or well above normal low level temps in SE Canada / E US all the way out to the end of the run...just makes me meh. i just hope we don't end up with a boat load of bitter air stuck over the border in W canada and have a series of warm cutters during the second half of the month. 

 

The MJO is a concern, agree. Hopefully like the last few months, models overestimate the amplitude, but I noticed that yesterday. 

[ORH_wxman]

Looks good!! But wait till Will sees this lol

 

 

I can't see it from here. Its blocked for some reason at work...but I'll take a look when I get home. Does it think you average 65"+ or something?

[ORH_wxman]

Thanks Will...I wanted to see if I was understanding this, and what to look for.  I really like gradient patterns up here...coastals are great but we can get screwed over up if the blocking gets too strong.  I like a pattern that features safe.

 

Well to be fair...a potential gradient pattern where the trough is focused over the mountain west is far from "safe"....it risks cutters. Its a high risk, high reward pattern. You can end up with a lot of snow events and stay cold, or you could very realistically end up with 3 cutters in a row. One reason we'll root for the NAO to get more and more negative...press that gradient south to make it more unlikely we see a cutter.

[CT Rain]

That CT map isn't all that accurate. There's a lot on there that needs tweaking.

[Damage In Tolland]

I can't see it from here. Its blocked for some reason at work...but I'll take a look when I get home. Does it think you average 65"+ or something?

60-70 here

[ORH_wxman]

60-70 here

 

60" barely for you maybe...maybe upwards of 65" near Union. Nobody averages 70" in your area.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

60" barely for you maybe...maybe upwards of 65" near Union. Nobody averages 70" in your area.

 

Based on reports I think he averages closer to 70

[HIPPYVALLEY]

It depends where you are. There are actually signs of a sfc warm front getting hung up for a time near us. If you end up south of that for an extra 12 hours...you might lose a lot more than folks to the north.

 

I certainly think most of N ORH county/Monads/Berkshires will hang on...esp since the much denser pack underneath the fluffier snow is deeper. You'll prob hold on where you are too. But certainly no guarantees. If we get a nasty developing low to the west that spikes us to 50F dewpoints for 12-16 hours, then all bets are off.

I've been all over the state this week and the snow pack out here is definitely more substantial than anything else I've seen.  Parts of N Worcester Co. might have had more snow total  but last thursday's system dropped 10-14" of dense, low ratio snow from C Franklin Co. W to the Berks.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Morning low here was 6.4, take that Joe