The First Week of Jan..Bitter cold,Balls drop as we ring in 2013

[wx2fish]

The ice is almost ready.  Pickup pond hockey this weekend while some folks sit in their living rooms, heat cranked, despairing over impending mid-40s.

 

Agree, lakes are just about ready around here, tonight and tomorrow should go a long way. Cant wait for pond hockey and ice fishing.

[weathafella]

All this angst over nothing. In my entire life, it has been rare not to have a spectacular torch in January known as the January thaw. It typically envelopes the whole country, can last up to a week, then the pattern reloads.

As Steve has said multiple times, this is most likely a January thaw. No need to run away from it. Rather, embrace the normalcy that is developing this winter. 48 hours ago I didn't think guidance would have me struggle to hit the low 20s tomorrow. Lots of winter fun ahead folks. This warmup is simply intermission.

[forkyfork]

All this angst over nothing. In my entire life, it has been rare not to have a spectacular torch in January known as the January thaw. It typically envelopes the whole country, can last up to a week, then the pattern reloads.

As Steve has said multiple times, this is most likely a January thaw. No need to run away from it. Rather, embrace the normalcy that is developing this winter. 48 hours ago I didn't think guidance would have me struggle to hit the low 20s tomorrow. Lots of winter fun ahead folks. This warmup is simply intermission.

 

the "january thaw" is supposedly a late jan phenomenon

 

http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/thaw/

 

edit: his paper concludes, "The hypothesis tests in Section 3 show clearly that mere sampling effects are wholly adequate to account for the observed warm deviations from the annual cycle of temperature during late January in the northeastern U.S: the observed warm spells are well within the limits of what might be expected to occur by chance alone in a stationary climate during any random period of n years."

[CoastalWx]

All this angst over nothing. In my entire life, it has been rare not to have a spectacular torch in January known as the January thaw. It typically envelopes the whole country, can last up to a week, then the pattern reloads.

As Steve has said multiple times, this is most likely a January thaw. No need to run away from it. Rather, embrace the normalcy that is developing this winter. 48 hours ago I didn't think guidance would have me struggle to hit the low 20s tomorrow. Lots of winter fun ahead folks. This warmup is simply intermission.

 

Yeah I don't think anyone said winter ends next week by any means. However, some think it's a day or two of 40, which probably is incorrect.

[weathafella]

the "january thaw" is supposedly a late jan phenomenon

http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/thaw/

It's typically about a week later than this one but there is enough variability to categorize a nationwide torch that has a clear beginning and end a January thaw.

[radarman]

Have to get your hockey fix one way or another!

 

I'll be at the whale game Friday night.

 

I'm also going to Springfield on Friday the 18th for the second time this season.  Went Saturday night and had to deal with some stupid fans...well my brother dealt with them more.  

 

Yeah Springfield fans can be awful, all three thousand of them.  

 

You must be a very good skater Paul, all that time you spent at the rink.  I'm mediocre at best but getting better.  But it's still a freakin blast ripping around on a lake with a bunch of people who also mostly suck at hockey, but love winter.

[N. OF PIKE]

This cold is great for ice sports as people mention, and even when that leaves we can start guessing what day ct blizz snowpack dissapears.

[scoob40]

Yeah Springfield fans can be awful, all three thousand of them.  

 

You must be a very good skater Paul, all that time you spent at the rink.  I'm mediocre at best but getting better.  But it's still a freakin blast ripping around on a lake with a bunch of people who also mostly suck at hockey, but love winter.

Had 5k there that night. Believe me Wolf*Pack (Whale) fans are no bargain either and they may cease to exist after this season.

[powderfreak]

Winter is here. Already -1 at my house. Forecast calls for -19F by morning.

Also our daily dusting to 3" snowfalls continue tomorrow night and Friday. 1.5" yesterday and 1.1" today. Nickel and dime season.

Full on winter forecast...cold night for CPick to sit in the hot tub.

Tonight

Mostly clear. Much colder with lows around 19 below. North winds 10 to 15 mph until midnight...becoming light and variable. Wind chill values as low as 30 below.

Thursday

Partly sunny in the morning...then becoming mostly cloudy. Highs around 8 above. Light and variable winds.

Thursday Night

Snow showers likely. Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Lows around 7 above. Light and variable winds... becoming southwest around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Friday

Snow showers likely. Additional light snow accumulation possible. Highs in the upper 20s. West winds around 10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent

[ctsnowstorm628]

Been busy with NYE festivities (still recovering lol). Still have 4-5" of compacted wet snow here. Should be chilly tonight. Woo

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah I don't think anyone said winter ends next week by any means. However, some think it's a day or two of 40, which probably is incorrect.

 

And some think it's 1-3 days of 50's and 60's which is probably incorrect

[Tropopause_Fold]

Yeah I don't think anyone said winter ends next week by any means. However, some think it's a day or two of 40, which probably is incorrect.

And some think it's 1-3 days of 50's and 60's which is probably incorrect

BDL >50F at least once?

[Damage In Tolland]

BDL >50F at least once?

 

I'll allow that as a possibility yes..but I also won't be surprised if we see that boundary remain s of us

[CoastalWx]

And some think it's 1-3 days of 50's and 60's which is probably incorrect

I think 2 days are very possible. Not a lock, but possible from what I see. Just close your eyes and hope the back half is better. It certainly will be active I think, so that's good. I do like seeing the models get a bit cooler heading through day 11-15.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Holy torch on the Euro ensembles. Time to stay the course on the warmth.

Beyond D10 there's some potential for wintry threats I think but we'll be riding the boundary and we could get screwed.

We should ignore the ensembles and just expect colder weather.

[CoastalWx]

Jamaica pond freezing over nicely, Jerry.

[Damage In Tolland]

I think 2 days are very possible. Not a lock, but possible from what I see. Just close your eyes and hope the back half is better. It certainly will be active I think, so that's good. I do like seeing the models get a bit cooler heading through day 11-15.

 

2 days of 60's with all this snowcover in the northeast w/o a torching cutter?

 

Seems difficult to say the least

[CoastalWx]

2 days of 60's with all this snowcover in the northeast w/o a torching cutter?

Seems difficult to say the least

No not 60s, but I could see 50s like maybe 50 and then 50-55 or something. That really isn't terrible....we always have a torch in winter. And again could be more days or less days....just my guess. There may be other days like 40s possible.

[N. OF PIKE]

Kev too bad u don't invest a few bucks and make some snow in ur back yard. Would be great for the kids to sled when mother nature doesn't produce, and u may retain pack batter thru torches. U could create a real micro climate

[Damage In Tolland]

No not 60s, but I could see 50s like maybe 50 and then 50-55 or something. That really isn't terrible....we always have a torch in winter. And again could be more days or less days....just my guess. There may be other days like 40s possible.

 

I'm gonna do everything in my power to have that type of disaster not happen

[ineedsnow]

cant wait to see how you pull that one off 

I'm gonna do everything in my power to have that type of disaster not happen

 

 

[Tropopause_Fold]

2 days of 60's with all this snowcover in the northeast w/o a torching cutter?

Seems difficult to say the least

No not 60s, but I could see 50s like maybe 50 and then 50-55 or something. That really isn't terrible....we always have a torch in winter. And again could be more days or less days....just my guess. There may be other days like 40s possible.

That's about what I'd say too. Thing is, even if 50F+ doesn't happen...it's going above normal. I'll be really really surprised if the tue-sun period averages less +6 or 7F

[N. OF PIKE]

Guy next to me at pool is at least a c cup. Ill ask if he needs massage. Gotta be around 0f

[ORH_wxman]

That's about what I'd say too. Thing is, even if 50F+ doesn't happen...it's going above normal. I'll be really really surprised if the tue-sun period averages less +6 or 7F

 

 

 

Avg high here is down to 31F by next week. Low 40s is even a +10 for a high....so it will be a well above average couple days at the very least.

[CoastalWx]

That's about what I'd say too. Thing is, even if 50F+ doesn't happen...it's going above normal. I'll be really really surprised if the tue-sun period averages less +6 or 7F

 

And I'm just speaking of general lower areas. I'm sure at 1k it will be a little cooler obviously.

[Tropopause_Fold]

That's about what I'd say too. Thing is, even if 50F+ doesn't happen...it's going above normal. I'll be really really surprised if the tue-sun period averages less +6 or 7F

Avg high here is down to 31F by next week. Low 40s is even a +10 for a high....so it will be a well above average couple days at the very least.

Yeah I think the last 14 months have left some of us thinking average highs are around 45F at BDL in mid Jan

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah I think the last 14 months have left some of us thinking average highs are around 45F at BDL in mid Jan

 

Yeah I think they are down to 34F or so next week for avg high.

[CoastalWx]

If you look at the Pacific..you would think colder here, but of course a nice deep trough carves out in the west, even with AK ridging. Hopefully the models are right and sort of spread out of at least broaden the trough near mid month. A spell of mild weather isn't bad when there is something to look forward too.

[Tropopause_Fold]

That's about what I'd say too. Thing is, even if 50F+ doesn't happen...it's going above normal. I'll be really really surprised if the tue-sun period averages less +6 or 7F

And I'm just speaking of general lower areas. I'm sure at 1k it will be a little cooler obviously.

What I see happening is the euro backing off that ridiculous warmth and things looking less awful on it over the next few days... Maybe it even drops a cold front south or something and weenies will say "heck of a way to run a warm-up" when they see it...but when the middle of next week comes around at least one day ends up well above normal

[ChrisM]

I'm still upset about will saying I average the same amount of snow as Kevin. Im never trolling again.