The First Week of Jan..Bitter cold,Balls drop as we ring in 2013

[Damage In Tolland]

I remember in the early 2000's an event where this massive torch was supposed to hit and Drag was on the long term desk and kept issuing discos saying it would be mitigated and that there was even a sign of a wintry event. Sure enough he was correct and there was a snow to ice event and the torch was like a day or something like that and not widespread 50's or 60's or whatever it was. I wish I could remember the year exactly. This reminds me of that though.

[CoastalWx]

I remember in the early 2000's an event where this massive torch was supposed to hit and Drag was on the long term desk and kept issuing discos saying it would be mitigated and that there was even a sign of a wintry event. Sure enough he was correct and there was a snow to ice event and the torch was like a day or something like that and not widespread 50's or 60's or whatever it was. I wish I could remember the year exactly. This reminds me of that though.

 

Models are better than the early 2000s. Besides, the mixed event may be after.

[ag3]

End of the nam once again looks fairly promising for sunday monday but its the.............................................................................................................

 

Euro Ensemble mean actually shows measurable precip in this timeframe for the 1st time.

[CoastalWx]

End of the nam once again looks fairly promising for sunday monday but its the.............................................................................................................

 

There needs to be a decent amount to go right outside of the far interior. Not many snow events occur with SW flow ahead of the low..even if it isn't warm. We would have tyo get that first vortmax to dig a little more and have a low develop underneath us. But, I suppose a little -SN can't be ruled out..especially inland.

[danstorm]

I'm actually going to enjoy this torch.  When the torch ends and we return to winter it should be the latter half of January and then we'd be a few weeks away form February which means we'd only be 4 months away form May!

 

February is 3 months from May.

 

We are less than 4 months from May right now.

 

Also, you need to relocate.  That is all.

[Damage In Tolland]

Models are better than the early 2000s. Besides, the mixed event may be after.

Im talking about the Monday storm

[CoastalWx]

Im talking about the Monday storm

 

Well Monday isn't a torch day anyways. That could bring a bit of -SN of that first s/w is stronger.

[tamarack]

I'd be happier without having seeing the last several days' gfs at D9-16 consistently showing a temp rollercoaster, with 2-3 days of 10F below normal then 1-2 days of 15F above, of course with all precip in the warm days. Sounds like a recipe for intense frustration. Of course, it's D9-16...

[Damage In Tolland]

And also there's only 1 model showing a death torch. Everything else is meh 40 ish. Drags thing based more on met not mod.

[weathafella]

They looked better for some threats after d10 this go around.

Caving to GEFS some?

[klw]

Temps starting to dive up here.

http://www.fairbanksmuseum.org/CurrentConditions

 

[CoastalWx]

And also there's only 1 model showing a death torch. Everything else is meh 40 ish. Drags thing based more on met not mod.

 

All models have a pretty mild period. The question is, can we get back to something workable after d10.

[Damage In Tolland]

All models have a pretty mild period. The question is, can we get back to something workable after d10.

The difference between 42 and 58 is immense this time of year in regards to pack

[CoastalWx]

Caving to GEFS some?

 

Yeah perhaps a little. The 00z Canadian ensemble also looked like the GEFS. I think the euro ensembles favor far interior for now, but the general idea was to slowly sag cooler air south. This is beyond day12 so the normal caveats apply. 

 

I took a look at 70 and 100mb and the ridging there begins to get mimicked by the ensembles at H5 over ern Greenland. It might be coincidence, but I did notice that. This whole process IMO, will be predicated on how that ridging materializes. If we do not have that, then we torch.

[forkyfork]

The difference between 42 and 58 is immense this time of year in regards to pack

 

i think you easily hit 50

[CoastalWx]

The difference between 42 and 58 is immense this time of year in regards to pack

 

 

You're gonna lose a good chunk of it at least imo. Low water content snow will melt quick.

[HoarfrostHubb]

18.1F here after a high of 23.9F

 Some snow showers today. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

This is your classic cutting below MOS type setup...esp the further north you go. We have fairly shallow cold and fresh snow cover with weak mixing.

 

That screams undercutting MOS a bit on low temps. Or even high temps. Those GFS highs though looks pretty darn cold.

BOX has me getting to -3 to -5   Can I get a -10!?!?  That would be sweet

You can make insta snow (not really snow) with a cup of hot water when it is -5F

[ineedsnow]

the powder from the other day will melt quick the stuff from the storm before wont melt nearly as fast

You're gonna lose a good chunk of it at least imo. Low water content snow will melt quick.

 

 

[CoastalWx]

the powder from the other day will melt quick the stuff from the storm before wont melt nearly as fast

 

No that stuff is pretty solid. It would take a cutter and heavy rain to melt that.

[ORH_wxman]

That front running shortwave originates down in TX near the gulf moisture. I'm wondering if models will slowly bump up the chances ofr some qpf from that thing. It seems a little strange how dry they are given the track of the vortmax.

[Quincy]

That front running shortwave originates down in TX near the gulf moisture. I'm wondering if models will slowly bump up the chances ofr some qpf from that thing. It seems a little strange how dry they are given the track of the vortmax.

 

FWIW, the DGEX (lol) shows more moisture, but then it loses most of it in the frame after this. Literally extends what we're seeing at the end of 18z NAM.

[weatherwiz]

There should be at least 1-2 days if impressive warmth next week I would think.  To have models showing what they are now is pretty remarkable.  You would think models would the degree of the warmth as well given the time of year we are in.  It's not like the upcoming period would favor any winter storms anyways so why not have a little bit of warmth before we go back into hopefully another favorable period.  

[CoastalWx]

Even if the second s/w can slow down a bit, it might help for something...maybe messenger OES like the 18z run has.

[It's Always Sunny]

That front running shortwave originates down in TX near the gulf moisture. I'm wondering if models will slowly bump up the chances ofr some qpf from that thing. It seems a little strange how dry they are given the track of the vortmax.

 

I agree. Maybe if the trough dug a little more we'll see a QPF enhancement in the coming day or two...seems like it is just a tad far north to acquire anything.

[CoastalWx]

Took my son out for a stroll again today. It is definitely a nice wintry feel out there. Felt refreshing.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

You're gonna lose a good chunk of it at least imo. Low water content snow will melt quick.

 

Traveling south down 16 today to Rte 95 and then 93/3 home it was interesting.  The snow up on the north shore down through the city, Braintree and down to about exit 12 was notably thin.  By about exit 6 it was a paste.  Many trees are still covered and the snowbanks were noticeably larger down this way.  Low ratio mud snow.  There is not enough of it to make a difference though, if we're in the 50s for a few days next week it'll all be long gone.

[radarman]

The ice is almost ready.  Pickup pond hockey this weekend while some folks sit in their living rooms, heat cranked, despairing over impending mid-40s.

[Mr Torchey]

The ice is almost ready.  Pickup pond hockey this weekend while some folks sit in their living rooms, heat cranked, despairing over impending mid-40s.

 

Yep, hockey friday night! Skating Saturday morning with the kids.

[weatherwiz]

The ice is almost ready.  Pickup pond hockey this weekend while some folks sit in their living rooms, heat cranked, despairing over impending mid-40s.

 

Have to get your hockey fix one way or another!

 

I'll be at the whale game Friday night.

 

I'm also going to Springfield on Friday the 18th for the second time this season.  Went Saturday night and had to deal with some stupid fans...well my brother dealt with them more.