The First Week of Jan..Bitter cold,Balls drop as we ring in 2013

[OSUmetstud]

i'd say the pattern following the storm on the euro is fairly favorable for plains/midwest and maybe western/NNE snowstorms.

 

 

[Tropopause_Fold]

Trolls gonna troll, records, uh ok

 

if that run actually verified...you can ignore those 2-m temps. they would be horribly wrong. 

[QcSevereWx]

The PV on the Euro 240h stay way north. Not very cold air in the Midwest.

[ORH_wxman]

The Euro verbatim might be record warmth becuase 1/10 is a very vulnerable day for record highs. The record high at ORH for Jan 10th is only 53F. Its somehow only 52F at BDL! Lots of other records at BDL are 60+ in January...nervermind low 50s.

[OSUmetstud]

The PV on the Euro 240h stay way north. Not very cold air in the Midwest.

 

it's cold enough i think.

 

the longwave pattern is pretty decent for the midwest.

[SnoSki14]

We're talking Day 8 runs, which means they will constantly change. There's no doubt there will be a warm up but I wouldn't say record warmth based on one Euro run that's beyond a week. For all we know the next run could show a big blizzard on Day 9-10. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Lets revisit if its still showing this on Monday. Until then deep winter

[OSUmetstud]

average temps and snow showers from time to time is so exciting 

 

 

[Mr Torchey]

Who knows how long the warmth lasts and if records are broken, but its not like this is being pulled out of thin air, the Ens have been arguing for a warm period for a while.

[Ginx snewx]

This must be horribly wrong I guess

 

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/two_metre_temperature_and_30m_winds!192!North%20America!t2m!pop!od!oper!w_t2m30mw!2013010212!!/

[Cary]

<blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="CT Blizz" data-cid="1977500" data-time="1357152074"><p>

Toss Euro. Nothing points to that</p></blockquote>

lol

[OSUmetstud]

This must be horribly wrong I guess

 

 

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/two_metre_temperature_and_30m_winds!192!North%20America!t2m!pop!od!oper!w_t2m30mw!2013010212!!/

that's 12z.  would it not get very warm during the day?

[Ginx snewx]

Who knows how long the warmth lasts and if records are broken, but its not like this is being pulled out of thin air, the Ens have been arguing for a warm period for a while.

 

yes a thaw has been progged for a while, looks transient and very typical. But Jan is gone according to some.

[CoastalWx]

<blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="Sultan" data-cid="1977634" data-time="1357155110"><p>

This must be horribly wrong I guess<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<a href='http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/two_metre_temperature_and_30m_winds!192!North%20America!t2m!pop!od!oper!w_t2m30mw!2013010212!!/'>http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/two_metre_temperature_and_30m_winds!192!North%20America!t2m!pop!od!oper!w_t2m30mw!2013010212!!/</a></p></blockquote>

Pretty warm for 7am temps for sure. The op run simar to GEFS post day 10, but thats the op run.

[Ginx snewx]

that's 12z.  would it not get very warm during the day?

 

I mean the whole run, somebody said even Mon on was way above normal.its going above normal for a few days, some here posted like it was a long torch run.

[Ginx snewx]

Let me clarify, step through the whole run, yes it gets very warm post day 7 but before that is not a torch.

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/two_metre_temperature_and_30m_winds!192!North%20America!t2m!pop!od!oper!w_t2m30mw!2013010212!!/

[H2Otown_WX]

That looks like 60s verbatim...12C 850s in January?

[Cary]

<blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="CT Blizz" data-cid="1977553" data-time="1357153270"><p>

<blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="Sultan" data-cid="1977548" data-time="1357153191"><p><br />

Nice euro shot at accumulating snow. Next 7 days look good for winter enthusiasts. Ice freezing up, some refresher snow.</p></blockquote>Yeah deep winter for 7 days then a cool up with a day or 2 of 40 ish then deep winter again. Doable</p></blockquote>

It's going to be higher than 40ish if this verifies

[Tropopause_Fold]

I mean the whole run, somebody said even Mon on was way above normal.its going above normal for a few days, some here posted like it was a long torch run.

 

steve, it's January. 850s going >0C for 5 days is noteworthy. peaking at +12C across CT during the peak of it no-less.

 

this image would be really really mild stuff. forget what the low level temps show. 

 

it may not be right anyway. 

 

[TalcottWx]

Box radar down?

[CT Rain]

steve, it's January. 850s going >0C for 5 or 6 days is noteworthy. peaking at +12C across CT during the peak of it no-less.

 

this image would be really really mild stuff. forget what the low level temps show. 

 

it may not be right anyway. 

 

euro.png

 

Holy crap at GFS MOS for tomorrow. Bottom dropped out compared to what it had yesterday 4/18 for tomorrow!! wow.

[Ginx snewx]

steve, it's January. 850s going >0C for 5 or 6 days is noteworthy. peaking at +12C across CT during the peak of it no-less.

 

this image would be really really mild stuff. forget what the low level temps show. 

 

it may not be right anyway. 

 

euro.png

 

Phil what day is that? The data I looked at did not rise 850"s above 0 until Wed 0z. 

[CoastalWx]

If it's warm..it is what it is. Hopefully we get something like the euro op and GEFS have post day 10.

[CoastalWx]

Holy crap at GFS MOS for tomorrow. Bottom dropped out compared to what it had yesterday 4/18 for tomorrow!! wow.

 

I call this the Scooter sneaky high thickness cold, where this is a classic cold in the lower levels. 

[Tropopause_Fold]

Holy crap at GFS MOS for tomorrow. Bottom dropped out compared to what it had yesterday 4/18 for tomorrow!! wow.

 

yeah i saw how cold it is from BDL up to ORH. will be interested to see how it does. it has most of this area 28-30F - that would be a huge difference from here to there. curious as to why the big spread over a relatively short distance under these conditions.

[Ginx snewx]

If it's warm..it is what it is. Hopefully we get something like the euro op and GEFS have post day 10.

 

obviously going to have to suffer through a warm up next week, pretty much cast in stone, hopefully its mitigated some. It is what it is. Deep snow cover this year at least helps some looking ahead. Long radiating nights with deep snow in Canada means the low level cold is never far away unlike last year.

[Damage In Tolland]

<blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="CT Rain" data-cid="1977682" data-time="1357156213"><p>

Holy crap at GFS MOS for tomorrow. Bottom dropped out compared to what it had yesterday 4/18 for tomorrow!! wow.</p></blockquote>I posted yesterday there would be teens for highs and was laughed at

[blizzard24]

With this snow on the ground and cold this week. There will be some warm up but only two days and not big warm up next week . Models will likely not show big warm up later runs for next week. I would not be surprise if late next week or week after we get snow  . I still say above normal snowfall for sne area and big apple area.

[CT Rain]

I call this the Scooter sneaky high thickness cold, where this is a classic cold in the lower levels. 

 

Yeah was just talking about that with another met here. Total sneaky cold. NAM MOS is 24F for the high with a WSW flow and 2M temps even higher.

 

Even with a nice subsidence inversion hard to stay in the teens with a wind out of the WSW.

[H2Otown_WX]

Yeah was just talking about that with another met here. Total sneaky cold. NAM MOS is 24F for the high with a WSW flow and 2M temps even higher.

 

Even with a nice subsidence inversion hard to stay in the teens with a wind out of the WSW.

You nailed the high for today @ BDL.