The First Week of Jan..Bitter cold,Balls drop as we ring in 2013

[weathafella]

Seems like the euro is going GFS in speeding the awful torch pattern more.

[Damage In Tolland]

<blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="CoastalWx" data-cid="1977536" data-time="1357152986"><p>

Who says it is? The pattern does support mild wx as we said numerous times...but I mentioned to wait to see what the ensembles have. We are commenting on it because it's ridiculously warm...the same would happen if it had 492 thicknesses shoved into SNE.</p></blockquote>Not you and Phil but some of the other weenies posting and acting like it will verify

[OSUmetstud]

the gfs is pretty warm in the same time frame, not quite as warm as the 12z euro, obviously

 

 

[Tropopause_Fold]

Funny how we're told not to take day 8 maps verbatim in snow events, yet when a bogus mild run shows up at 8-9 days its correct. Tossed until there's an ounce of support from anything else

 

embrace it. 

[CoastalWx]

Well if there is light at the end of the tunnel...then we just deal with it. 

[Ginx snewx]

Nice euro shot at accumulating snow. Next 7 days look good for winter enthusiasts. Ice freezing up, some refresher snow.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Nice euro shot at accumulating snow. Next 7 days look good for winter enthusiasts. Ice freezing up, some refresher snow.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

<blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="Sultan" data-cid="1977548" data-time="1357153191"><p>

Nice euro shot at accumulating snow. Next 7 days look good for winter enthusiasts. Ice freezing up, some refresher snow.</p></blockquote>Yeah deep winter for 7 days then a cool up with a day or 2 of 40 ish then deep winter again. Doable

[CoastalWx]

I phucking hate torches. 

[OSUmetstud]

maybe it's better that way...get the seasonable temps post storm in faster?

 

 

[mahk_webstah]

1-800-273-8255

 

That is funny as hell - National Suicide Prevention line...but please don't start calling it.  It is there to help people who are in a crisis.

[Ginx snewx]

 

Whats so funny, you disagree? Thats what it shows. 

[weatherwiz]

Funny how we're told not to take day 8 maps verbatim in snow events, yet when a bogus mild run shows up at 8-9 days its correct. Tossed until there's an ounce of support from anything else

Taking a look at a pattern setup is much different than looking at a modeled storm possibility.  

[ORH_wxman]

I'd actually take the Euro....sure it would torch a couple days, but the pattern reloads much faster on that run. We'd be back to tracking winter threats quite quickly.

 

 

[Great Snow 1717]

As I mentioned yesterday, my concern is the pattern features warm and dry conditions. I hope not.......

[Ji]

I'd actually take the Euro....sure it would torch a couple days, but the pattern reloads much faster on that run. We'd be back to tracking winter threats quite quickly.

 

i knew the weeklies were a bust

[rgwp96]

My best snowfall was on 11/7. Every system since has screwed over my area with the biggest upset on 12/29. Most sources were going with a low-end plowable snow and I ended up with a coating in S-C NJ before a change to rain. Away from the rain-snow line, forecasts were stellar however. Looks like the western CONUS is about to see some good winter/cold mid-Jan.

 

have 17.1 for the season in northwest jersey.  snowpack is about 4-5 inches. lost about 2 inches since the last storm .

[mahk_webstah]

what a nightmare that run was.

some places probably wouldn't dip below freezing monday night just looking at that synoptic set-up with WAA and W/SW flow and would hold above freezing through Saturday...with likely near record warmth in the heart of the week. 

 

no thanks. 

As long as it is temporary I like those brief warm ups because usually it gets real cold after (exception was last year of course)...if it is going to get warm, let it get real warm and then snap.

[PWMan]

If it's going to warm up for a couple days I'd just as soon have some sun. Those of us with good snowcover can still enjoy winter sports on a mild day as long as it's not pouring rain.

[weathafella]

I'd actually take the Euro....sure it would torch a couple days, but the pattern reloads much faster on that run. We'd be back to tracking winter threats quite quickly.

Bingo! Exactly what I was trying to point out when noting that the longer term euro is going GFS.

[mahk_webstah]

I'd actually take the Euro....sure it would torch a couple days, but the pattern reloads much faster on that run. We'd be back to tracking winter threats quite quickly.

amen

[Ginx snewx]

I'd actually take the Euro....sure it would torch a couple days, but the pattern reloads much faster on that run. We'd be back to tracking winter threats quite quickly.

 

Man thats only like 48 hours of above normal and the 2 m temps are not that warm before that. Like a couple of days in Jan warm is that unusual? I see where the emphasis is with some people. Allsnow said Jan was gone on the Euro, geez man.

[Ji]

its its just temporary, i hope we hit 80. Seems like its brief only

[NJwinter23]

Funny how we're told not to take day 8 maps verbatim in snow events, yet when a bogus mild run shows up at 8-9 days its correct. Tossed until there's an ounce of support from anything else

 

Everything is mild in the 6-10 day. sorry dude. This isnt a storm system we are talking about at day 8, this is a large scale pattern

[CT Rain]

What a torch!!! Wow... what an incredible warm up on the Euro. 

 

Lots of signals pointing toward a possible period of record warmth. 

[Great Snow 1717]

What a torch!!! Wow... what an incredible warm up on the Euro. 

 

Lots of signals pointing toward a possible period of record warmth. 

 

I'm not surprised in the least bit............

[CT Rain]

Will's right though. It's actually not a bad setup for making it a shorter period of torch. Pattern looks good for some wintry threats post D10 and back to an only somewhat above normal pattern.

[Ginx snewx]

What a torch!!! Wow... what an incredible warm up on the Euro. 

 

Lots of signals pointing toward a possible period of record warmth. 

 

Trolls gonna troll, records, uh ok

[CT Rain]

Trolls gonna troll, records, uh ok

 

Well, coming up a record shattering warm 2012 it's not a huge surprise. I could definitely see 1 or 2 days in record territory based on the setup. But, as Will said and I agreed, it's actually not a bad pattern. Certainly much better than last year where it was just interminable. 

[CT Rain]

Trolls gonna troll, records, uh ok

 

60s for your fanny?