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The First Week of Jan..Bitter cold,Balls drop as we ring in 2013

Damage In Tolland

By Damage In Tolland,
in New England

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radarman

radarman

Posted
Posted
GFS looks a bit more interesting. It has some weenie light snow for Sunday.

 

Yeah, still has the open wave look with confluence to the N, but given normal GFS bias at day 5 areas south of the pike especially still might be in the game for a quick hitter.   End of the NAM run looked a lot more promising with respect to the low position too, of course we know how little that's worth though.  

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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wonder if the 6th is slowly coming back on the table.

 

 

 

I hope so. Not very optimistic about it but at least there is a trough there with some half decent amplitude.

 

Even a light event would be nice. Tracking high temps gets boring pretty quickly for me.

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted

This "situation" could become interesting if the following two things happen:

1. The leftover southern wave slows down even more

2. The northern stream wave speeds up a bit

There is no actual phasing or interaction with the two pieces on the GFS other than the northern wave pushing the southern wave northward and along. If these can actually interact, we may be able to pull something off..especially for you guys.

On one hand, I kind of think it is possible we can get those two things to trend in that direction. On the other, the PJ is rapidly retreating with a very compressed/progressive flow that will most likely yield crappy results.

Keep expectations low and hope for the best.

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted
This "situation" could become interesting if the following two things happen: 1. The leftover southern wave slows down even more 2. The northern stream wave speeds up a bit There is no actual phasing or interaction with the two pieces on the GFS other than the northern wave pushing the southern wave northward and along. If these can actually interact, we may be able to pull something off..especially for you guys. On one hand, I kind of think it is possible we can get those two things to trend in that direction. On the other, the PJ is rapidly retreating with a very compressed/progressive flow that will most likely yield crappy results. Keep expectations low and hope for the best.

 

how's the stratwarming progressing?

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
This "situation" could become interesting if the following two things happen: 1. The leftover southern wave slows down even more 2. The northern stream wave speeds up a bit There is no actual phasing or interaction with the two pieces on the GFS other than the northern wave pushing the southern wave northward and along. If these can actually interact, we may be able to pull something off..especially for you guys. On one hand, I kind of think it is possible we can get those two things to trend in that direction. On the other, the PJ is rapidly retreating with a very compressed/progressive flow that will most likely yield crappy results. Keep expectations low and hope for the best.

 

 

 

Animating what the upper level flow is doing is really disgusting to watch...the whole gradient lifting northward even while at the same time a shortwave is trying to dive southeast. Just an ugly setup. We'll need some pretty good luck to get anything out of this one. There doesn't want to be much moisture in this seemingly on model guidance. The 12z NAM at 84h is really the only one that seems to tap into anything.

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HM

HM

Posted
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Classic wave 1 shake up going on and then it will be followed up with a wave 2 configuration/split. One of two main PVs will situate over the "NAO-west" regions through mid-January so don't expect much of a response there until this gets removed. This may not happen until late Jan.

The analogs, both in terms of general global factors and the stratosphere, suggest we may see some of this cold by the end of the month. But, the tropical Pacific will likely continue to remain unfavorable throughout the remainder of the winter. It will only be the "difficult to time" kelvin wave pulses, AAM-torque propagations and retrograding Pacific Waves that will give you some idea of when a PNA ridge goes up.

LES looks crappy again this month.

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted
Classic wave 1 shake up going on and then it will be followed up with a wave 2 configuration/split. One of two main PVs will situate over the "NAO-west" regions through mid-January so don't expect much of a response there until this gets removed. This may not happen until late Jan. The analogs, both in terms of general global factors and the stratosphere, suggest we may see some of this cold by the end of the month. But, the tropical Pacific will likely continue to remain unfavorable throughout the remainder of the winter. It will only be the "difficult to time" kelvin wave pulses, AAM-torque propagations and retrograding Pacific Waves that will give you some idea of when a PNA ridge goes up. LES looks crappy again this month.

 

terrible.  thanks HM.

 

Almost like last year...just gets it done in a different way lol.

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HM

HM

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My best snowfall was on 11/7. Every system since has screwed over my area with the biggest upset on 12/29. Most sources were going with a low-end plowable snow and I ended up with a coating in S-C NJ before a change to rain. Away from the rain-snow line, forecasts were stellar however.

Looks like the western CONUS is about to see some good winter/cold mid-Jan.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
My best snowfall was on 11/7. Every system since has screwed over my area with the biggest upset on 12/29. Most sources were going with a low-end plowable snow and I ended up with a coating in S-C NJ before a change to rain. Away from the rain-snow line, forecasts were stellar however. Looks like the western CONUS is about to see some good winter/cold mid-Jan.

 

I'm really not far behind you man. Although I did get about what I expected with this last storm...even that rained for a good 3 hrs or so in that. Storms have not been kind here as well. The interior on the other hand, has done well.

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted
I'm really not far behind you man. Although I did get about what I expected with this last storm...even that rained for a good 3 hrs or so in that. Storms have not been kind here as well. The interior on the other hand, has done well.

I wasn't optimistic with the 12/29 event myself. I don't like mid level lows heading into NY state while waiting for a transfer off the NJ coast. The dry slot wasn't as bad as it could have been but the low level temperatures certainly were during the transfer process. I thought the modeling clearly showed the warmth / changeover down my way.

For the next few weeks, I'll just hope to get lucky again with a changeover event etc. Really sucks how close we are going to come with 1/6.

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NJwinter23

NJwinter23

Posted
Posted
My best snowfall was on 11/7. Every system since has screwed over my area with the biggest upset on 12/29. Most sources were going with a low-end plowable snow and I ended up with a coating in S-C NJ before a change to rain. Away from the rain-snow line, forecasts were stellar however. Looks like the western CONUS is about to see some good winter/cold mid-Jan.

 

 

I wasn't optimistic with the 12/29 event myself. I don't like mid level lows heading into NY state while waiting for a transfer off the NJ coast. The dry slot wasn't as bad as it could have been but the low level temperatures certainly were during the transfer process. I thought the modeling clearly showed the warmth / changeover down my way.

For the next few weeks, I'll just hope to get lucky again with a changeover event etc. Really sucks how close we are going to come with 1/6.

 

Yeah the failure of this last event hurt knowing where the progs were heading into the heart of Jan. Even just a minor 2-4 inch event would have made me happy and put the over all winter on a respectable pace including the november event. (the fellow New Englanders in this thread will laugh it up, but sadly 5-10 inches is a respectable, if not above normal pace down our way through Jan 1st.). I could have used a helping hand in the 1-2 days before the 12/29 storm over in NYC forum... There was just mind-numbing weenie denial in the face of all models that it was going to rain in that system...

 

The cold period we are seeing in early Jan is ultimately a fail for us. Didn't think the stormy pattern would shut down so abruptly right as things turned briefly more favorable for a coastal track, but there are good reasons for it as we've gotten closer. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

<blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="CT Blizz" data-cid="1977413" data-time="1357148529"><p>

<blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="CoastalWx" data-cid="1977410" data-time="1357148455"><p><br />

Man cheer for the GEFS. They aren't perfect, but look better than the euro post d10.</p></blockquote>If there was a compromise between the 2., how would SNE look past day 10?</p></blockquote>

Well I guess you could argue a mixed event if we did that, but that's really extrapolating dangerously lol. I actually do think some sort of mixed event is possible. Whether it turns to rain or ice is up in the air, but the euro ensembles also had that look. And to be fair, the GEFS were not cold per se, but kept the front near and just off the East Coast. Euro hangs it up near us or even just west. I do think we may have a cutter either way.

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