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The First Week of Jan..Bitter cold,Balls drop as we ring in 2013

Damage In Tolland

By Damage In Tolland,
in New England

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

Posted
Posted
The 18z GEFS show you what you want after like day 10 and 11. The euro ensembles have this about 100-200 miles NW. This is how tight it will be.

 

Which one do you think is right Scooter, way out there obviously.  These Srat warming events take usually 3 or so weeks to effect sensible weather correct> or is it sooner?

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Which one do you think is right Scooter, way out there obviously.  These Srat warming events take usually 3 or so weeks to effect sensible weather correct> or is it sooner?

 

I have no idea. The euro ensembles are more accurate in general, but the Canadian also sort of agrees with the GEFS. The GEFS sometimes tend to be a little too quick and may be doing so regarding moving troughing into the east. 

 

As far as the stratosphere, I have no idea how it will behave..lol. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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<blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="CoastalWx" data-cid="1976482" data-time="1357084944"><p>

Those temps in the upper 20s sure will be tough to take. Nice mild down.</p></blockquote>Well for coastal folks you guys having highs in the mid to upper 20's is bitter. Us interior folks with highs near 20 with biting wind is downright dangerous

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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<blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="CoastalWx" data-cid="1976482" data-time="1357084944"><p>

Those temps in the upper 20s sure will be tough to take. Nice mild down.</p></blockquote>Well for coastal folks you guys having highs in the mid to upper 20's is bitter. Us interior folks with highs near 20 with biting wind is downright dangerous

 

 

Highs in the mid 20s for you? This is normal January weather. What a wimp you've become. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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<blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="CoastalWx" data-cid="1976492" data-time="1357085196"><p>

Highs in the mid 20s for you? This is normal January weather. What a wimp you've become.</p></blockquote>1 or 2 days may stay in the teens

 

It's been nice to have chilly weather finally no doubt, but this isn't really noteworthy.  Just enough to keep the snow around.

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Brian5671

Brian5671

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It's been nice to have chilly weather finally no doubt, but this isn't really noteworthy.  Just enough to keep the snow around.e

exactly..run of the mill at best for most...looked impressive 3 days ago, now it's a drop to slightly below average for a couple of days...big deal

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kdxken

kdxken

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It's been nice to have chilly weather finally no doubt, but this isn't really noteworthy.  Just enough to keep the snow around.

 

Yup, and the forecasts have backed way the lows. My daughter is in Lyndonville and has a game in Standish Me. tomorrow, forecast low for LSC had been -18f and -4 for Standish. Now the forecast lows are -13 and + 5 respectively.

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nzucker

nzucker

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18z GFS has a muted warm-up with a strong cutter bringing back cold air after Day 10. Powerful PV over Eastern Canada keeps things chilly, especially in Maine where departures look to be the strongest. I'd love to go up to Labrador and experience those -30C 850s with the spruce forest and mountains up there. Epic epic winter right now from Northern New England into Quebec and further up...lots of cold air available unlike last year.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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<blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="nzucker" data-cid="1976566" data-time="1357088300"><p>

18z GFS has a muted warm-up with a strong cutter bringing back cold air after Day 10. Powerful PV over Eastern Canada keeps things chilly, especially in Maine where departures look to be the strongest. I'd love to go up to Labrador and experience those -30C 850s with the spruce forest and mountains up there. Epic epic winter right now from Northern New England into Quebec and further up...lots of cold air available unlike last year.</p></blockquote>

They are definitely not the disaster that the euro ensembles are.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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<blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="wx2fish" data-cid="1976574" data-time="1357088588"><p>

That was a frigid stretch. Big Black River, ME hit -50f on the 16th.</p></blockquote>

I feel like that month flies under the radar. We had

a snowy month with great snowpack to boot.

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nzucker

nzucker

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<blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="nzucker" data-cid="1976566" data-time="1357088300"><p>

18z GFS has a muted warm-up with a strong cutter bringing back cold air after Day 10. Powerful PV over Eastern Canada keeps things chilly, especially in Maine where departures look to be the strongest. I'd love to go up to Labrador and experience those -30C 850s with the spruce forest and mountains up there. Epic epic winter right now from Northern New England into Quebec and further up...lots of cold air available unlike last year.</p></blockquote>

They are definitely not the disaster that the euro ensembles are.

 

Both the OP GFS and GEFS, as well as the OP ECM, seem to be colder than the ECM ENS. I don't think we're looking at a big torch in New England (most of the above average temperatures will be in the Plains and Lower Midwest), but I think we'll have a see-saw pattern where the northern stream dips in with a cold front, then milder air arrives, then the northern stream works in again. It may take a cutter around Day 10-11 to reestablish cold across the CONUS, but I think Days 6-10 are more up-and-down than just plain mild. It also looks like the cutter the GFS is showing brings down a nice airmass, which makes sense given that Canada is pretty chilly with the PV sitting near Hudson Bay/Labrador/Baffin Island. The exact placement of that PV could make a world of difference in our temperatures as we progress through January.

 

In the longer range though, we definitely have the stratospheric warming fighting a generally unfavorable ENSO/PDO pattern. The Pacific has been cooling rapidly with mostly +SOI, and that's going to favor troughing out west and less ridging over AK, especially with the cold SSTs in the GoA. I'm especially impressed with how fast La Niña seems to be developing:

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