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The First Week of Jan..Bitter cold,Balls drop as we ring in 2013

Damage In Tolland

By Damage In Tolland,
in New England

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

I completely agree with your line of thinking. I believe we have reached a crtical point(next 11-15 days) in how this winter will play out. I'm concerned that the core of the arctic air is going to remain in Canada. Another concern is the ongoing drought situation across a large portion of the country.......lack of storminess.

I think our best bets for a cold and snowy winter revolves around 2 things occuring. First we need the cold dropping out of Eastern Canada rather than Western Canada. Secondly the Gulf of Mexico has to become open for business. My fear is if the Gulf of Mexico doesn't become open for business then we are going to have a winter featuring cutters.

lol where does this come from, we have a relaxation that is not set in stone and already get panic setting in
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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

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Nice week of winter to follow up a fantastic week. Squalls and cold with a possible clipper. Can not wait until someone punts Jan.

we kinda got lucky from a decent few days. The month as a whole didn't feel like winter. I can only hope this changes for January...but signs aren't great at least for mid-month, maybe things get better after?

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Isn't a PV over northern Hudson Bay like the EC ensemble is showing bad for the east?

Yeah it can be if it;s well north and just helping to furnace the CONUS with westerly flow. If it sinks or wobbles south from time to time, then it introduces cold and storm chances. I hope nobody is reading into this more than they should. Nobody is punting, just saying the next two weeks may be rather quiet.

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

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Strange times, absolute torch this month yet I have half of normal winter snowfall.......relaxation periods are perfectly normal and happen every winter after all this is not the arctic circle. Some flurries and snowshowers around as the ball drops perhaps. Something will pop up later this week, certainly would be foolish to ignore seasonal trend of north and west.

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
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Yeah it can be if it;s well north and just helping to furnace the CONUS with westerly flow. If it sinks or wobbles south from time to time, then it introduces cold and storm chances. I hope nobody is reading into this more than they should. Nobody is punting, just saying the next two weeks may be rather quiet.

yeah verbatim it isn't good. We haven't been a good pattern in the northeast and eastern midwest the entire late fall or winter.

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weathafella

weathafella

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Isn't a PV over northern Hudson Bay like the EC ensemble is showing bad for the east?

It is bad the further south you go. It was exactly what existed in in if the coldest and snowiest winter in Boston's history, 1993-94 had a positive NAO to boot. But the EPO delivered. That's what we need über alles IMHO.

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Great Snow 1717

Great Snow 1717

Posted
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you mean being progged or what needs to happen?

-EPO/+PNA is a good combo to have it happen.

Yes what needs to happen. I agree a -EPO/+PNA would be great BUT I'm not sure that is in the cards.

What if a powerful storm cut thru the plains and into canada......say on a path into the Dakota's and/or Western MN.....do you think such a storm could start the process for delivering true arctic air to the US?

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

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It is bad the further south you go. It was exactly what existed in in if the coldest and snowiest winter in Boston's history, 1993-94 had a positive NAO to boot. But the EPO delivered. That's what we need über alles IMHO.

that winter had a favorable pacific and the PV on average was located over southern Hudson Bay...not northern.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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EC ensembles have ridging into AK and the ridging into Greenland. This helps force the PV SW, but also a -PNA so we have to fight that. However, that is a pretty good thermal gradient there...right over our fannies practically. That doesn't mean snow, but it could be interesting at times. I still don't like the look of it quite yet because it is too close for comfort. We really could use more Greenland ridging.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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EC ensembles have ridging into AK and the ridging into Greenland. This helps force the PV SW, but also a -PNA so we have to fight that. However, that is a pretty good thermal gradient there...right over our fannies practically. That doesn't mean snow, but it could be interesting at times. I still don't like the look of it quite yet because it is too close for comfort. We really could use more Greenland ridging.

It's sort of wheat NNE had the first few weeks of Dec..pressed south over us..Should be cold enough for snow/mixed precip chances..Now that we have deep pack..and gradient/fronts are going to be forced south....I could see waves riding over Philly out thru Central Jersey or something like that.

We're in a good spot..The plains will torch..esp southern Plains

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