The First Week of Jan..Bitter cold,Balls drop as we ring in 2013

[Mr Torchey]

Hopefully the 12z gefs are a bit more promising.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Hopefully the 12z gefs are a bit more promising.

IMHO, we are on the ropes from about 1/8-1/18ish. It's the middle of January so obviously anything that moves through could produce something but I think that period gets remembered for warmth not cold.

[Mr Torchey]

IMHO, we are on the ropes from about 1/8-1/18ish. It's the middle of January so obviously anything that moves through could produce something but I think that period gets remembered for warmth not cold.

Would be nice for something to pop with these cold fronts over the next 6 days, even if it was a quick hitting miller b (out east) or stronger clipper.

[Damage In Tolland]

29.4 with wind..brrr for sledding

[OSUmetstud]

Hopefully the 12z gefs are a bit more promising.

6-10 and 11-15 day mean look both quite warm.

[Brian5671]

Euro weeklies from last night are apparantly a torch for the next month?

[OSUmetstud]

I'm relegated to below normal snow here...chances are probably 80% or greater, I think. Below normal in December and then a very high chance of below normal snow through the first 15 days of January really hurts les country. stratospheric warming could lead to a good period for you guys...but you get most of your snow in January/February...not December/January like I do.

Only saving grace is when the potential good period comes, the lake should remain unfrozen.

[Great Snow 1717]

6-10 and 11-15 day mean look both quite warm.

Yes they do. I think many here forget we are fighting a long term trend towards warmer weather. If my memory serves me well Chicago, Billings, St Louis, Buffalo and Minneapolis(plus many other cities) had either their warmest or second warmest year on record in 2012.

The pattern hasn't been conducive for producing below average temps for quite a number of months. And the next 2-3 weeks follows that trend. Until we see a pattern developing that brings true arctic air into the plains states and midwestern states then we are just going to keep the trend ongoing. We need the pattern to change there first...then hopefully it changes here too. I wouldn't advise getting ones hopes up.

And the widespread drought conditions are not helping out winter weather lovers ......

[CoastalWx]

Yes they do. I think many here forget we are fighting a long term trend towards warmer weather. If my memory serves me well Chicago, Billings, St Louis, Buffalo and Minneapolis(plus many other cities) had either their warmest or second warmest year on record in 2012.

The pattern hasn't been conducive for producing below average temps for quite a number of months. And the next 2-3 weeks follows that trend. Until we see a pattern developing that brings true arctic air into the plains states and midwestern states then we are just going to keep the trend ongoing. We need the pattern to change there first...then hopefully it changes here too. I wouldn't advise getting ones hopes up.

And the widespread drought conditions are not helping out winter weather lovers ......

The Plains dryness really has nothing to do with our weather until after March. That's more of a evapotranspirational and solar insolation deal post equinox.

[CoastalWx]

Look how wet December was here and snowy for the interior. That has nothing to do with us.

[Damage In Tolland]

Plains have gotten crushed with snow the last few weeks. ESP the dry areas

[CoastalWx]

Plains have gotten crushed with snow the last few weeks. ESP the dry areas

The OV was dry and they have been blitzed.

[powderfreak]

Man... I love January. What an awesome time of year. Winter wonderland from village to summit and everywhere in between.

Happy New Year everyone!

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah the dry pattern out there didn't mean anything for us eventually in December....we got a ton of precip when the pattern changed to a stormy-favorable pattern.

[weathafella]

Went out from 10:30-1 in the woods. The fresh CAA could be felt and temps were already dropping. The next few days are wintry. No doubt in my mind that we have huge January thaw this year. The hope is to keep it under a week in duration.

[OSUmetstud]

+6.2 on the month here, 8th warmest Dec on record.

warmest year on record, also.

[CoastalWx]

Went out from 10:30-1 in the woods. The fresh CAA could be felt and temps were already dropping. The next few days are wintry. No doubt in my mind that we have huge January thaw this year. The hope is to keep it under a week in duration.

Hopefully the GEFS are correct towards the end of the run with bringing the trough east, but they tend to rush things too.

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro for Jan 6-7?

[Great Snow 1717]

Plains have gotten crushed with snow the last few weeks. ESP the dry areas

But the plains remain in a severe drought....

[ORH_wxman]

Euro for Jan 6-7?

Nothing...maybe some snow showers...the trough still bears watching though.

[kdxken]

Went out from 10:30-1 in the woods. The fresh CAA could be felt and temps were already dropping. The next few days are wintry. No doubt in my mind that we have huge January thaw this year. The hope is to keep it under a week in duration.

Looks like mid-forties most of next week. A frosty 35 here now

[weathafella]

Hopefully the GEFS are correct towards the end of the run with bringing the trough east, but they tend to rush things too.

They have a trof in the Aleutians which can't hurt. Like Will said, the pv in Hudson's Bay (north portion) would be great if somehow it could be further south. That's the difference between whqts modeled and 1993-94.

[OSUmetstud]

But the plains remain in a severe drought....

but what does that have to do with winter weather in the northeast?

[OSUmetstud]

They have a trof in the Aleutians which can't hurt. Like Will said, the pv in Hudson's Bay (north portion) would be great if somehow it could be further south. That's the difference between whqts modeled and 1993-94.

even at day 15 it's still warm in new england..maybe that changes after that...but the run itself is pretty awful.

[weathafella]

Looks like mid-forties most of next week. A frosty 35 here now

Dropping. BOS down to 34 from a hgh of 38. I'm at 33 and the Brighton wxbug is down to 31.

[weathafella]

even at day 15 it's still warm in new england..maybe that changes after that...but the run itself is pretty awful.

No ones said otherwise.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah nobody is saying cold, but with the trough you at least introduce storm chances.

[ORH_wxman]

No ones said otherwise.

It would probably get colder after the end of the run given the longwave pattenr setting up. But we obviously cannot trust it at that range.

[OSUmetstud]

Yeah nobody is saying cold, but with the trough you at least introduce storm chances.

you know how you know it's bad?

When you're extrapolating out the GEFS at day 15 to bring the cold east lol.

[weathafella]

We need the pv modeled on the euro for d8 to be 300 miles further south. With the way the pattern is going, that possibility seems rather remote.