Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

The First Week of Jan..Bitter cold,Balls drop as we ring in 2013

Damage In Tolland

By Damage In Tolland,
in New England

Recommended Posts

ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I think the next 7-10 days are probably fine...its just after that period where there is some uncertainty in whether we can keep close enough to the boundary not to torch, or if we get hammered with warmer temps for a few days and/or a cutter going west of us. We really don't know at this point, but that type of pattern could deliever that.

In the meantime, enjoy the winter wx with fresh snow pack.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
  • Author
Posted

To be fair you had an epic meltdown last winter yelling at Jeff up in LA (Maine version). You told Zeus to eat a d'ck and his comeback was the best ever when he said "if I do will you shut up?" Or something like that. We mall melt in these awful patterns.

Lol I don't remember yelling at Cold Front? I did? If so that's probsbly why he always attacks me on here. The one with Brett was a joke. That was not a meltdown. I came close earlier in Dec
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Haha must be reading comprehension fail. I've just been reading several posts calling folks Debbies for talking about a thaw.

You usually lean optimistically cold...no?

No the Debbie reference was to the Torch coming, oh me oh my, no flakes for three weeks, the pattern sucks posts. I think we have a thaw. Scooter and Will are on it. I am more confident that this thaw period is transient and not full of cutting rainy warmth. Actually dude perfect skiing weather, bluebird skies with lower 30's for elevation with deep bases. I kid a lot.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

A day or 2of 40 degrees isn't a big deal to me

I don't think people are saying days of 55-60, just possibly mild and boring. I think it would be a lie to say the opposite. At least the next 8 or 9 days seem chilly. In fact some on the East Coast may have record highs..especially the MA or lower OV. This may be one of those boundaries where you go from chilly air to very mild in a short distance, so clearly where this front ends up will be important.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
  • Author
Posted

I don't think people are saying days of 55-60, just possibly mild and boring. I think it would be a lie to say the opposite. At least the next 8 or 9 days seem chilly. In fact some on the East Coast may have record highs..especially the MA or lower OV. This may be one of those boundaries where you go from chilly air to very mild in a short distance, so clearly where this front ends up will be important.

Yeah that really doesn't worry me.

Ryan's post about 2 below normal days seems a little silly when the next 7 are all below

Link to comment
Share on other sites
HM

HM

Posted
Posted

Happy New Year to everyone. Man, I have been getting the shaft down my way with every one of these storms. I barely got coated up with the 12/29 storm before I changed to rain. The Mid Atlantic has finally got cold air to work with but the compressed jet stream and strong polar vortex are making it tough for stream interaction and amplification. I still think we have to watch a pattern like this for something before we transition to warmth.

I obviously don't have to get into the much advertised warm up. The Pacific will continue to retrograde and we will see the wave 1 warming sync up with the NE PAC ridge again, like we saw in Dec. This will be the beginning of the PV breakdown. From this point, it is a matter of long wave positioning for cold air to the enter the country in the last 10 days of Jan into Feb. Ultimately, the cold, after targeting the western half, will target the eastern half of the CONUS (see 1947 l/wv evolution for example).

Once we get a handle on the Tropical Pacific, perhaps we can make a few guesses on what periods to watch in the second half of winter for a snowstorm. Obviously in a year like this one, it will be you guys and the Midwest that are prime targets.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

No the Debbie reference was to the Torch coming, oh me oh my, no flakes for three weeks, the pattern sucks posts. I think we have a thaw. Scooter and Will are on it. I am more confident that this thaw period is transient and not full of cutting rainy warmth. Actually dude perfect skiing weather, bluebird skies with lower 30's for elevation with deep bases. I kid a lot.

I don't get it. This is a discussion for January and people are reporting what's being progged with the caveats. It doesn't mean people aren't enjoying the first week of January wintry conditions. Why aren't we allowed to discuss anything but cold and snow? Wx is wx

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

From what I can see, it's going to stay reasonably chilly in most of Upstate NY and NE, albeit a bit above normal as time goes on. We might all be at risk for a cutting storm/brief torch as the pattern reloads, but that's nothing unusual. I think the majority of Januarys have at least one event like that. Some may have forgotten that even in the legendary January/February of 1978 we had a brutal cuting thaw late in the month. In 95-96, there was a flooding cutter after the Blizzard....

Honestly the stuff in the long range doesn't look that bad on the models. I usually disagree with Kev and Sultan's always cold progs in these situations, but I think they've got the right idea. I'll probably get burned by this, but I mean, having the H85 temps near 0C for a couple days this time of year isn't exactly that warm. Usually we aren't getting much mixing and you can have 36F at the sfc and 30-32F at H85. I've really noticed over the last 7-10 days that the temperature differences with elevation aren't nearly as big as they are at other times of the year. A couple days of upper 30s isn't that uncommon as a pattern relaxes. Maybe something where PA/NY semi-torch but east of the Greens/Berks/Taconics its quite muted...the type of set-up where TOL sees lower maxes than BTV for a couple days.

As long as we avoid a storm where its like 50/45 and raining... it looks like most of us that have a solid snowpack now hold onto this for quite some time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

I don't get it. This is a discussion for January and people are reporting what's being progged with the caveats. It doesn't mean people aren't enjoying the first week of January wintry conditions. Why aren't we allowed to discuss anything but cold and snow? Wx is wx

Huh? I was referring to the doom and gloom posts. No reference at all about all cold and snow in fact I think we will have a thaw. But seriously to throw out statements like , no flakes for three weeks, torch for the month. Go back and read Jerry. Nothing at all wrong discussing weather but as soon as a thaw appears we get these winters over posts.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
DavisStraight

DavisStraight

Posted
Posted

Everyone please get a grip on themselves and relax. There is no torch coming in Jan. will it get above normal for a short time? Yes. But it's not a big deal. We go right back to deep winter weeks 3 and 4

And I think Don S is indicating Feb too, not sure if all of Feb or part of it but thats the coldest part of winter and it looks like it will be good for us.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

No the Debbie reference was to the Torch coming, oh me oh my, no flakes for three weeks, the pattern sucks posts. I think we have a thaw. Scooter and Will are on it. I am more confident that this thaw period is transient and not full of cutting rainy warmth. Actually dude perfect skiing weather, bluebird skies with lower 30's for elevation with deep bases. I kid a lot.

Yeah that's for sure. It really is as good as it gets for this time of year right now. Some of the two week snow totals are pretty staggering. I'm on the lower side at my plots, actually... Sugarbush/MRG area has seen over 80" since December 16th. Sugarloaf and Sunday River have also gotten crushed.

The ski conditions are awesome from Maine to the Adirondacks and everywhere in between. Quite rare for that to happen and line up with the holiday period. I know Vermont is having a near record Xmas-New Year holiday period because conditions and snow is so good from the MA border all the way to Canada... and I'd assume the other states are as well. This is the first holiday period in years where pretty much everyone is beating their projections (crushing them in some cases with record revenue) and its nice to be ahead of the game at this point in the season from a business standpoint.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

Did you and the Gf break up?

Nope...we're bowling tonight and drinking and I'm sleeping at her house. Everytime she's stayed at my house people have come over and tried coming into my room...the first time my friend just walked in and stayed for an hour but the last two times I locked my door.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Yeah that's for sure. It really is as good as it gets for this time of year right now. Some of the two week snow totals are pretty staggering. I'm on the lower side at my plots, actually... Sugarbush/MRG area has seen over 80" since December 16th. Sugarloaf and Sunday River have also gotten crushed.

The ski conditions are awesome from Maine to the Adirondacks and everywhere in between. Quite rare for that to happen and line up with the holiday period. I know Vermont is having a near record Xmas-New Year holiday period because conditions and snow is so good from the MA border all the way to Canada... and I'd assume the other states are as well. This is the first holiday period in years where pretty much everyone is beating their projections (crushing them in some cases with record revenue) and its nice to be ahead of the game at this point in the season from a business standpoint.

Even the local Wachusett down here looked in primo shape yesterday driving past it. We don't get upslope obviously on NW winds like all those other places...but 18" of snow in 5 days will help out (with about half of that high water content)

Link to comment
Share on other sites
weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

If you look at that awful d10 temperature anomaly prog, you can still see New England on the good side of the boundary technically so while it may be warm upstairs, it could be cold enough to support frozen. It's just not possible to tell and without storms it's a warm signal.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

I just don't want a storm next weekend...gonig to Hershey for two Whale games and already invested a good deal of money into this. I like the Whale and this trip should be fun. We are going to Hershey, PA. We're leaving like 4 PM Friday or something and going to the hotel. We already got the hotel. We got the tickets and food vouchers for the food at the game. We are also going bowling, skating, and maybe Hershey park. I wanty chocolate.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...