Santa Clause Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Holy precip on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Holy precip on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Ya, I'm not exactly sure why the NWS is concerned about mixing up here in State College. Sure many of the SREFs show it, but the SREFs suck at details like that. The 06z hi-res NAM and Euro both easily keep all of it snow (the NAM might show a brief transition at the very end, but by then pretty much all of the precip has already fallen). Though having just looked at the operational 12z NAM, it does appear warmer for the second-half of the event. Still showing 850s below zero the entire time. Will wait to see what the 12z hi-res NAM shows. EDIT: Hmm, I see where the issue is now. After 12z, the NAM sounding shows a warm layer above 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 It's clear that the trend is wetter/warmer and farther north with the storm. It would be nice to see a nice accumulating snow since I wasn't here to enjoy the only active winter weather week here! 12z NAM precip. I'm guessing it's a bit overdone but we'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Wouldn't this be nice? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_12z/snow60.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Wouldn't this be nice? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_12z/snow60.gif good looking image! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 12z GFS is still really warm at 850mb and gives the area more freezing rain than snow - I'm assuming it should be thrown out in favor of the hi-res models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Um, ice storm cometh perhaps for the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Cloud cover is keeping our temperatures in State College well under what was forecast. As of 1pm, we are at 30 whereas the NWS had us at 35. Any areas cooler than modeled/forecast may see more frozen/freezing precipitation than is currently expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 From HM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Cloud cover is keeping our temperatures in State College well under what was forecast. As of 1pm, we are at 30 whereas the NWS had us at 35. Any areas cooler than modeled/forecast may see more frozen/freezing precipitation than is currently expected. I think we were to be 39, and i have 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 I was somewhat encouraged by this part of the AFD: THE PRECIP THUS FARIN THE WINTER HAS BEEN MORE-SNOWY THAN SLEET OR FZRA. THIS EVENTMAY BE THE SAME WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUDS AT FIRST WHICH WILLALLOW FOR GOOD EVAP COOLING...AND THE PRECIP SHOULD BE MAINLYOVERNIGHT. I'm not too concerned about mixing up here, Gettysburg-York-Lancaster and points south will likely be messy though. That is a bit of an interesting observation. Not like there's any kind of hard evidence to support this but it does always seem each winter has it's own trends with things. The 07-08 and 08-09 winters were loaded with storms that always had mixing issues for everybody. The last couple winters have been more cut and dry with one type or the other... obviously with last winter being pretty ugly with alot of rain events and elevational snow. However it was about this time last year we had our only half decent storm of the season (not including our out of season freak snowstorms) and despite a forecast of mixing for alot of central PA.. it stayed all or mostly snow. For this event, I do think the mixing is a bit overplayed IMO. Especially with the prospect of heavier QPF looking pretty likely. A bit of evap cooling and steady rates should keep alot of us snow for most of the duration. I think any meaningful freezing rain stays at or under the turnpike, and sleet ends up being the more predominant mixed precip. Still like the call i laid out last night with 2-4 axis running roughly JST-UNV-AVP and some isolated 5" amounts. Should be an interesting event to watch evolve this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I know all the focus is on the storm tomorrow but if these models hold true most of Pa. is going to have high temps in the teens to low 20's for the next several weeks starting on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Thanks for everyone who has been keeping us updated on this storm!! Not posting much, but reading. Mag thanks for all the informational posts!! 39 here today for the high. Still a little snow on the ground here. Even over the weekend the temps stayed below what they was forecasting.. Would be happy happy happy if we would pick up 3" from this system. One question.....is the system a little slower than what they was predicting? Edit: sorry for the pic. I have trouble posting mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Thinking 1 to 2 for us pawatch, but cannot rule out 3 maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Snowfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Ice map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 wtaj has me at 4-6" wjac 3-5" they are both showing my area as the jackpot so we'll see... I predict 2.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Rain has commenced here in NW Lancaster county. All liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Looking ahead, I'm seeing about 4" of snow at KRDG around the 22nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 90% rain with occasional pingers mixed in here in Shippensburg Cumberland County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Very poor ice crystal structure snow flakes here with sleet in the Linglestown area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 90% rain with occasional pingers mixed in here in Shippensburg Cumberland County I'm the opposite here.....it's sleeting moderately with about 90% sleet and 10% rain. Temp 35 with dew point of 25 should get us down close to 32 by the time evaporational cooling runs out. My own "gut" feeling for right here in this area is that we see more snow than is presently forecasted....ie, more than 1" total. Especially if during the heaviest precip rates overnight it's all or mostly all snow. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'm the opposite here.....it's sleeting moderately with about 90% sleet and 10% rain. Temp 35 with dew point of 25 should get us down close to 32 by the time evaporational cooling runs out. My own "gut" feeling for right here in this area is that we see more snow than is presently forecasted....ie, more than 1" total. Especially if during the heaviest precip rates overnight it's all or mostly all snow. We'll see. My thoughts as well... have a coating of sleet on deck, shed roof, and a few other colder surfaces but nothing in driveway yet... just wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Sleeting for the past 45 mins in midtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'm still in Hunt Valley, finishing up work. Looking forward to a 1.5 hour drive with icing potential. :sled: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Precip has started here. All snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Altoona reporting 31 with light snow now, should be seeing something shortly up here in State College I'd think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 nam backs off on precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Coating of snow/sleet here along Blue Mountain on colder surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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