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Central PA - late January 2013


MAG5035

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Warmer air slowly moving in AOO is up to 43. It should be only a few more hours before we get above 32 at UNV.  Indiana, PA is up to 46 now. That's the warmest its been all day there. Its even 50 around Pittsburgh. SW winds should scour out the remaining cold.  

 

Above freezing air has finally gotten to here. Sounds like a downpour outside but its the ice melting off the trees. 

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Couple times I nearly wiped out today. Up Pollock Road was a mess and also near the CATA office on Beaver Avenue.

One of my past interns broke her wrist falling on Pollock back in 2010. It's the worst. I always hear students talk about how bad Pollock always is.

 

I saw a guy totally wipe out on a bike coming down from the IST Building as he was crossing the street when I was walking up to the gym from Rider Bldg. I was surprised he was okay, he hit Burrowes hard as hell, man.

 

^ I was just out and it felt a lot warmer than 34 to me...

 

 

It probably is. since the airport is 3 or 4 miles north of town.

It's 35.4 at my house. I guess because it's usually cold before hand, but these initial parts of the warmup when the temp finally gets above freezing with the fog and drizzle always feels really warm to me.

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One of my past interns broke her wrist falling on Pollock back in 2010. It's the worst. I always hear students talk about how bad Pollock always is.

 

I saw a guy totally wipe out on a bike coming down from the IST Building as he was crossing the street when I was walking up to the gym from Rider Bldg. I was surprised he was okay, he hit Burrowes hard as hell, man.

 

 

 

It's 35.4 at my house. I guess because it's usually cold before hand, but these initial parts of the warmup when the temp finally gets above freezing with the fog and drizzle always feels really warm to me.

 

Being from the other side of the Alleghenies usually the warm air wins quickly. I guess I am used to these type of events warming up fast.  To me 35 or 36 and drizzle feel raw. Then again it could be from all those years of watching high school and PSU games in weather like this .  

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I think i'll pass on the 0z GFS beyond this weekend haha. Kind of a crappy run.

 

Speaking of this weekend, both GFS and Euro have had a system coming through that looks to be our next snow threat. At this point it looks similar track and QPF wise to our system we had Friday. But probably not quite as frigid.

 

The MJO continues to be forecast by most guidance to head into and spend some time in phase 8 (perhaps getting into 1 eventually). I think this will eventually be heard from in the form of a meaningful southern branch of the jet stream. There is usually a bit of a lag between the index and actual effects to the mid latitudes from what I understand of the MJO, so we could be talking a good week to 10 days or so before we could see the southern stream ramp up. In the meantime, systems look to be continue to primarily be northern stream driven. NAO continues to look positive/neutral and PNA also looks positive but still close to neutral like the NAO. I don't really see much right now in terms of potential for any kind of big hitter. We need things to slow down and amplify. That doesn't mean we can't see a system drop a decent event...just that something like a KU snowstorm doesn't seem to be in the cards attm. I wouldn't get too attached to any long range forecasts as things look highly changeable as we get into February. 

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SPC going with moderate risk for severe storms today and "Slight" for tomorrow which currently has most of PA included in the 5% area.

 

Last night was first time since night of Jan 19-20 that Harrisburg did not have overnight temperatures fall to or below 32 degrees.

 

Monthly average now down to 1.2 degrees above normal from 4.0 the other day... this will swing back up some over the next few days especially since our low for today is already well above normal.

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looks like we may stay above normal temps for a couple days. Rain Thursday / friday

Okay, I have to ask because I heard the same thing about up were - point me to that forecast.  No rain in the forecast in any one I see for either of those days and Friday the high's going to be 30 down your way. 

 

Reason why I ask is I always wonder where people get these forecasts that don't seem to exist anywhere. Just curious. 

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Okay, I have to ask because I heard the same thing about up were - point me to that forecast.  No rain in the forecast in any one I see for either of those days and Friday the high's going to be 30 down your way. 

 

Reason why I ask is I always wonder where people get these forecasts that don't seem to exist anywhere. Just curious. 

well, i thought the nam and the gfs both showed warmer then normal temps (high 30's today working up to highs in the 50s wed-thursday) through Thursday, with rain. Then Friday, like you said high of 30.

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well, i thought the nam and the gfs both showed warmer then normal temps (high 30's today working up to highs in the 50s wed-thursday) through Thursday, with rain. Then Friday, like you said high of 30.

You're a day late. Warmth is later today through tomorrow afternoon with rain accompanying the strong cold frontal passage by early tomorrow evening. 850s drop from +10 to -10 in less than 24 hours by thursday afternoon then to around -18 by friday. Highs 30s thursday but falling during the day. Highs in the 20s friday.

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How does tmrw look for heavy rain?

My point & Click for tomorrow night:

 Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 1am, then a chance of showers. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 36. South wind 13 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

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You're a day late. Warmth is later today through tomorrow afternoon with rain accompanying the strong cold frontal passage by early tomorrow evening. 850s drop from +10 to -10 in less than 24 hours by thursday afternoon then to around -18 by friday. Highs 30s thursday but falling during the day. Highs in the 20s friday.

Gotcha, thanks

 

Ah, okay. Got it. I was just curious. 

looks like i was wrong anyhow! a day late, dollar short!

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Just came in from getting our death trap of a driveway back to driveable. 2 hours and 1 ton of stone later. What a freakin mess. 

Urea, you need it! Although it might not work on unpaved solid surfaces so well. 

 

My boss fell on his driveway yesterday afternoon. I was walking to my car and nearly died twice - one crossing 2nd and once on the bricks at State Street here. Bricks + freezing rain = impending pain.

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There is a 13 degree difference between the airport temperature (37) and the Walker building temperature (50). Assuming they are both accurate (I'm sure the airport is, probably Walker too), that's an amazing gradient for only ~4 mile distance from each other. Is snow coverage playing a role? Or topography effects? It's an interesting situation.

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There is a 13 degree difference between the airport temperature (37) and the Walker building temperature (50). Assuming they are both accurate (I'm sure the airport is, probably Walker too), that's an amazing gradient for only ~4 mile distance from each other. Is snow coverage playing a role? Or topography effects? It's an interesting situation.

I was just home for lunch and it's still only 35* down in Bellefonte, just SE of the courthouse.

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